Grantee Research Project Results
2011 Progress Report: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model
EPA Grant Number: R833864Title: Enhanced Air Pollution Epidemiology using a Source-Oriented Chemical Transport Model
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Kaufman, Joel D. , Ostro, Bart , Sampson, Paul , Reynolds, Peggy , Ying, Qi , Chen, Shuhua
Current Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Ostro, Bart , Kaufman, Joel D. , Sampson, Paul , Chen, Shuhua , Ying, Qi , Reynolds, Peggy
Institution: University of California - Davis , Texas A & M University , Northern California Cancer Center , University of Washington
Current Institution: University of California - Davis , University of Washington , Texas A & M University , Northern California Cancer Center
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: December 1, 2008 through November 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2010 through October 31,2011
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Innovative Approaches to Particulate Matter Health, Composition, and Source Questions (2007) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Particulate Matter , Air
Objective:
The objective of this study is to combine existing atmospheric science tools and epidemiological tools to improve our understanding of the health effects of airborne particulate matter (PM). The UCD/CIT source-oriented chemical transport model and the US EPA CMAQ model will be used to predict enhanced PM exposure assessments that will be incorporated in four existing epidemiological studies. PM concentrations will be predicted with 24-hour time resolution continuously over the period from 2000-2006 across the entire continental United States with 36 km resolution. Results will be nested downward to a maximum resolution of ~4-5 km in three different subregions (California, Midwest, and East Coast) that overlap with epidemiological populations. Further nesting using statistical regression models will increase the maximum resolution to 10 m in selected regions. Air quality model results will be incorporated into three longitudinal cohort studies (MESA Air, WHI-OS, CTS) and one time series study (CALFINE). The examination of both chronic and acute exposures in multiple populations will provide a robust test of the use of chemical transport models for epidemiological studies.
Progress Summary:
Prognostic meteorological fields have been generated for the entire State of California for the years 2000-2006. Prognostic meteorological fields also have been generated for the entire United States and nested domains over the Eastern United States for the years 2000-2006.
The SMOKE emissions model has been modified to use the UCD source profile library and emissions corrected for predicted meteorological conditions have been generated for the years 2005 and 2006 across the entire United States.
The UCD/CIT emissions model has been modified to generate separate emissions records for each source in the inventory generated by the State of California. A separate version of the UCD/CIT air quality model has been created that is capable of tracking primary PM emissions from thousands of different sources through a simulation of atmospheric transport and deposition. Seven years of primary airborne PM have been simulated for the State of California including PM10, PM2.5, and PM0.1. Results have been compared to measurements for particle composition and source contributions. More than 100 primary PM2.5 source contribution fields and more than 20 primary PM0.1 source contribution fields passed constraint checks and will be provided to epidemiological studies. Preliminary work has begun to perform similar calculations for the entire United States.
A nested version of the UCD-CIT air quality model has been created and applied to the TexAQS 2000 air quality episode. The nesting approach has been adopted in the UCD/CIT model that can track thousands of different sources.
CMAQ simulations of air quality for the entire United States and the nested domains in the Eastern United States have been completed for year 2006. Simulations for 2005 currently are under way.
A version of the CMAQ model with source apportionment capability for nitrate and sulfate has been developed and tested.
Preliminary work has started to develop a screening methodology for testing the association between various PM species and survival. The datasets employed in this method are publicly available and their use may provide a fast and inexpensive screening tool to identify PM sources / sizes / components that are correlated with adverse human health outcomes.
A new “SpatioTemporal” R package has been created and made publicly available. This R package can transform a series of measurements that are discontinuous in space and time into a prediction for pollutant concentrations at a location where measurements are not available. The technique will be applied to downscale regional model predictions from a resolution of 4 km to a scale of tens of meters.
Future Activities:
Primary and secondary air quality simulations will be carried out for the study regions of interest using the UCD-CIT and CMAQ air quality models.
Air quality predictions will be compared to measurements with special focus on statistical source apportionment results where they are available.
Air quality predictions will be integrated with epidemiological studies.
Manuscripts will be prepared describing all of the activities above.
Journal Articles on this Report : 8 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 27 publications | 17 publications in selected types | All 17 journal articles |
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Adar SD, Klein R, Klein BE, Szpiro AA, Cotch MF, Wong TY, O'Neill MS, Shrager S, Barr RG, Siscovick DS, Daviglus ML, Sampson PD, Kaufman JD. Air pollution and the microvasculature: a cross-sectional assessment of in vivo retinal images in the population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). PLoS Medicine 2010;7(11):e1000372 (11 pp.). |
R833864 (2011) R833864 (2012) R833864 (Final) R831697 (2010) R831697 (2011) R831697 (2012) R831697 (2013) R831697 (Final) |
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Bergen S, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Kim SY, Richards M, Vedal S, Kaufman JD, Szpiro AA. A national prediction model for PM2.5 component exposures and measurement error-corrected health effect inference. Environmental Health Perspectives 2013;121(9):1017-1025. |
R833864 (2011) R831697 (2013) R831697 (Final) R834796 (2013) R834796 (2014) R834796 (Final) R834796C005 (2013) |
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Hu JL, Zhang H, Chen S, Ying Q, Wiedinmyer C, Vandenberghe F, Kleeman MJ. Identifying PM2.5 and PM0.1 sources for epidemiological studies in California. Environmental Science & Technology 2014;48(9):4980-4990. |
R833864 (2011) R833864 (Final) |
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Hu J, Zhang H, Chen S-H, Wiedinmyer C, Vandenberghe F, Ying Q, Kleeman MJ. Predicting primary PM2.5 and PM0.1 trace composition for epidemiological studies in California. Environmental Science & Technology 2014;48(9):4971-4979. |
R833864 (2011) R833864 (2012) R833864 (2013) R833864 (Final) |
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Sampson PD, Szpiro AA, Sheppard L, Lindstrom J, Kaufman JD. Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data. Atmospheric Environment 2011;45(36):6593-6606. |
R833864 (2011) R833864 (2012) R833864 (2013) R833864 (Final) R831697 (2011) R831697 (2012) R831697 (2013) R831697 (Final) |
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Szpiro AA, Sampson PD, Sheppard L, Lumley T, Adar SD, Kaufman JD. Predicting intra-urban variation in air pollution concentrations with complex spatio-temporal dependencies. Environmetrics 2010;21(6):606-631. |
R833864 (2011) R833864 (2012) R833864 (2013) R833864 (Final) R831697 (2010) R831697 (2011) R831697 (2012) R831697 (2013) R831697 (Final) |
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Zhang H, Ying Q. Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter in Southeast Texas using a source-oriented 3D air quality model. Atmospheric Environment 2010;44(29):3547-3557. |
R833864 (2009) R833864 (2010) R833864 (2011) R833864 (2012) R833864 (2013) R833864 (Final) |
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Zhang H, Li J, Ying Q, Yu JZ, Wu D, Chen Y, He K, Jiang J. Source apportionment of PM2.5 nitrate and sulfate in China using a source-oriented chemical transport model. Atmospheric Environment 2012;62:228-242. |
R833864 (2011) R833864 (2012) R833864 (2013) R833864 (Final) R833865 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Source-oriented external mixture, air quality, epidemiology, PM, particulate matter, CMAQRelevant Websites:
http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/kleeman/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- Final Report
- 2013 Progress Report
- 2012 Progress Report
- 2010 Progress Report
- 2009 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
17 journal articles for this project