Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
EPA Grant Number: R827450Title: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
Investigators: Kirshen, Paul , Vogel, Richard , Lakshmanan, T. R. , Gute, David , Edgers, Lewis , Sanayei, Masoud , Ruth, Matthias , Chapra, Steve , Chudyk, Wayne , Anderson, William
Institution: Tufts University , University of Maryland - College Park , Boston University
Current Institution: Tufts University , Boston University , University of Maryland - College Park
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: September 14, 1999 through September 13, 2003 (Extended to March 12, 2004)
Project Amount: $899,985
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The services provided by infrastructure systems include flood control, water supply, drainage, wastewater management, solid and hazardous waste management, energy, transportation, providing constructed facilities for residential, commercial, and industrial activities, communication, public health, and recreation.
Even though infrastructure systems and services are designed according to socioeconomic and environmental conditions that are very sensitive to climate (e.g., energy and water demands, wind and water loads) and have interrelated impacts upon each other, there have been no major integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on metropolitan infrastructure in the United States. Infrastructure systems last considerably longer than decades (some a century or more) and provide the footprint and direction for future infrastructure and related future socioeconomic activities and environmental quality. Therefore, it is important that decisionmakers understand the short- and long-term consequences of climate change on infrastructure. This includes both local and regional decisionmakers, because they make the most infrastructure-related decisions, and state and national decisionmakers, because they provide policy guidance.
The objectives of this research project were to: (1) document and analyze the state of present infrastructure systems and the socioeconomic and environmental services provided by these systems in the Boston Metropolitan Area (includes the major cities of Boston and Cambridge and 99 other municipalities within approximately 20 miles of Boston; land use varies from urban to farms and open space) using various indicators to indicate their contribution to the quality of life in the region; (2) determine the integrated direct and indirect impacts of climate change, socioeconomic, and technology scenarios on the future evolution of infrastructure and the regional quality of life over time; (3) identify the importance of policies and short- and long-term research needs for the provision of infrastructure services that will meet stakeholder needs over time given the uncertainties of climate and other changes; and (4) collaborate with the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), our local partner, to ensure that stakeholders are involved, their concerns are addressed, and the project results are effectively communicated to them and the public at large and begin to engage stakeholders in the process of preparing for potential climate change.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
The Climate Long-Term Impacts on Metro Boston (CLIMB) study conducted analyses of many of the critical infrastructure systems in the Boston Metropolitan Area, with the major analysis tool being dynamic modeling of the period 2000 to 2100, with spatial disaggregation to seven subregions (referred to as zones) of Metro Boston. In most cases, impacts were examined under one set of demographic projections, two climate change scenarios in addition to the present climate, and three possible adaptations responses to climate change. The adaptation scenarios included:
- The “Ride it Out” (RIO) scenario in essence assumes that no adaptation to climate change occurs and that damages and benefits continue to occur with no attempts by society to minimize or maximize them.
- The “Green” scenario assumes conscious, sustainable responses to observed trends, as well as proactive or anticipatory implementation of policies and technologies in efforts to counteract and prepare for adverse climate impacts. Some of the practices might be put in place before impacts are felt (e.g., moving occupants out of flood plains), after impacts occur, or at the end of the lifecycles of the infrastructure systems.
- The “Build Your Way Out” (BYWO) scenario assumes that replacement of failed systems is undertaken and susceptible systems are protected by structural measures.
Systems analyzed included: Energy Use, Sea Level Rise, River Flooding, Transportation, Water Supply, Public Health (heat-stress mortality), and Localized Case Studies (water quality, tall buildings, bridge scour).
Conclusions of Each Sector Analyzed
Energy Use. The summer electricity demand increases will cause negative impacts in the region. Anticipatory adaptation could alter the region’s energy demand response function to more effectively correspond with future climatic conditions via planned adjustments in the attributes of temperature-sensitive infrastructure and energy technologies (i.e., building thermal shells, air-conditioners, furnaces). Identifying potential impacts for the region is important now because the energy industry is extremely capital intensive and as a consequence the flexibility of policy-induced changes in energy generation and demand trajectories over the short and medium run is limited. In the long run, as the capital stock naturally turns over, building codes may be changed to calibrate the thermal attributes of the building stock to expected future climates. Such changes, however, need to be implemented in the relatively near term or the building stock will become increasingly maladapted to climate. In the near term, polices such as urban shade tree planting and installation of high albedo roofs can begin to modify the thermal characteristics of the Massachusetts energy infrastructure to reduce space-conditioning energy use.
Sea Level Rise. Our findings on adaptation to increased storm surge impacts support those of others; it may be advantageous to use expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and take a less structural approach in less developed areas and/or environmentally sensitive areas. Our adaptation scenarios were based on taking action well before 2050. Besides being more cost effective, the less structural approaches are no-regrets or co-benefit policies, are environmentally benign, and allow more flexibility to respond to future uncertain changes. Although uncertainty in the expected rate of sea-level rise and damages makes planning difficult, the results also show that no matter what the climate change scenario or the location, not taking action is the worst response.
River Flooding. Our analysis of climate change impacts on river flooding indicate that the number of properties damaged and the overall cost of flood damage will both double relative to what might be expected with no climate change. The most severe incremental impacts will occur in the fast growing western suburbs. The likely economic magnitude of these damages is sufficiently high to justify large expenditures on adaptation strategies such as universal flood proofing in all flood plains. The most extensive adaptation strategy—as incorporated in the Green scenario—greatly reduces the incremental flood damage because of climate change. In fact, damages under the Green strategy with climate change are substantially lower than might be expected in the absence of climate change, but with no adaptation strategies.
Transportation. Increases in the frequency of extreme weather events will result in a major increase in delays and lost trips because of road flooding over the course of the 21st century. The economic impact of these delays and lost trips, however, are relatively small compared with those of flood damages to residential, commercial, and industrial properties. It is unlikely that infrastructure improvements, such as realignment of roadways in river valleys, can be justified on a cost-benefit basis. Thus, increased weather-induced delays are a nuisance that motorists will have to endure as the frequency of extreme rain events increases.
Water Supply. Under the climate change scenario with the least future precipitation and the adaptation actions considered in the report, only local systems that use the regional Massachusetts Water Resource Authority (MWRA) system to supplement their water supplies will be able to maintain acceptable local water supplies under climate and demographic changes. Even with the higher demands on it under BYWO, the reliability of the regional MWRA systems remains manageable in the future under climate and demographic changes. Because the MWRA presently is not obligated to serve all locally supplied systems in the event of temporary or permanent shortages, local systems should consider anticipating climate and demographic changes by using adaptation actions such as demand management and others not analyzed in this study, such as increasing instream flows through better storm water management, increasing system storage capacity through reservoirs or aquifer use, and considering using such water supply sources as reclaimed wastewater and desalination. Implementation of these actions has historically taken long lead times.
Public Health. Only impacts related to heat-stress mortality were analyzed. There will be slightly higher average heat-stress mortality until about 2010, under climate change compared to the base case. From 2010 onward, mortality declines more rapidly under climate change than without it, and from approximately 2012 onward, the number of deaths actually declines as the number of heat events increases. One explanation behind this observed reversal lies in the effects that repeated events may have on a population’s adaptive behavior; the more frequent the number of events, the more the population could be prepared to deal with it. These findings, however, assume that current trends in regions continues, such as increases in the use of air conditioning, improvements in health care, and the use of early warning systems for individuals most prone to changes in temperature. Besides maintaining these trends, additional adaptations to climate change may be needed. For example, the region has seen only a few efforts to increase the use of shade trees to decrease albedo and increase moisture retention, and thus contribute to local cooling. Similarly, new construction uses materials or designs that reduce a building’s albedo, its heating and cooling needs, and thus energy consumption and impacts on local air quality. Such engineering approaches to prepare the local building stock to a changing climate, together with appropriate zoning and transportation planning, could go a long way in reducing factors (e.g., urban heat island effects) that may be exacerbated by climate change. For these results to be achievable, aggressive investments in all areas, ranging from health care, space cooling, and smart land use, as well as potentially drastic behavioral adjustments of the local population, are required. On the one hand, such adjustments will need to be large, yet given past experience, seem doable. On the other hand, they may entail major changes in lifestyles in the region.
Water Quality. The localized case study found that the additional costs to adapt to climate change with or without population growth are significant because of the high costs of extra nonpoint source pollution management. These results point to the need to consider the integrated impacts of temperature, streamflow, precipitation, land use, population, and water and wastewater management in evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on water quality.
Tall Buildings. The localized case study of a typical tall building in Metro Boston found that if design wind velocities increased by 30 percent over the present Massachusetts Building Code, large wind-induced sways potentially could cause human discomfort and costly architectural damage. They also could cause cracking and spalling of fire protection materials from the surface of steel structural members leading to reduced safety against fire protection. The structure also may experience increased cracking of nonstructural architectural finishes, leading to increased maintenance costs. In sum, the serviceability of the building will be reduced. It is unknown what the expected wind speed may be under climate change. Some researchers only predict 3 to 5 percent by 2095, but the research does suggest some of the additional analyses that may be necessary in the future.
Bridge Scour. The localized case study found that with increased flood discharges in rivers, bridge foundation scour could become a problem. One solution is retrofitting existing bridge footings with riprap.
General Conclusions. Three themes emerge from these analyses. If either structural (BYWO scenario) or less structural (Green scenario) actions are taken before full climate change impacts take place, less expected infrastructure negative impacts to the region will occur. The second is that under many scenarios, an effective adaptation action taken soon will result in less total future negative impacts in a sector even if climate change does not occur. For examples, this was found in the analyses of river and coastal flooding impacts and adaptation. The third theme is that climate change will significantly add to the negative impacts of demographic changes upon infrastructure services in the region. This is because the region is already close to buildout.
Summary by Integration of Impacts and Adaptation Actions
Impacts. This research emphasized the integration of climate and demographic changes on an infrastructure sector and examined these impacts with a common framework. Based upon the results of this research, it also is possible to examine how impacts in one sector will impact another sector. RIO negative impacts of one infrastructure system in most cases also will negatively impact the performances of other infrastructure systems. River flooding most negatively impacts the other sectors, followed by sea-level rise and energy supply; these are the sectors with the largest number of impacts cutting across sectors. Water supply and water quality are next, followed by transportation and health. Health (not only including heat-stress mortality) followed by water supply and water quality are the sectors most impacted by other sectors. These interactions are important because they have the potential to magnify any negative impacts caused by climate change alone in a sector.
Adaptation. It was found that, generally, anticipatory adaptations were most effective in lessening the impacts of climate change. Because the sectors are interrelated, adaptations to address problems in one sector will have effects on other sectors. In some cases, the effects will be complementary, but in others they may work against each other. All of the adaptations also will have environmental impacts other than climate change and will have broader economic and social implications. Furthermore, all of these adaptations may have impacts on our efforts to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In most cases, it was found that an effective adaptation action in one sector also lessens climate change impacts in another sector. For example, actions to improve water quality also have the potential to improve water supply, the environment, and greenhouse gas emissions. Water quality adaptations, however, may result in increased water management rates.
The interactions of adaptations with other sectors are most widespread in the case of management of future river flooding. Adaptations include increased use of flood proofing, retreat from flood plains, and increased recharge rates. Retreat from flood plains will be beneficial to transport in the sense that fewer trips will begin and end in flooded areas, so the impact of floods on system performance will be less. If land use restrictions lead to denser development, there also will be a benefit in terms of less residential energy use, which may in part offset the need for more air conditioning. Retreat from flood plains (and coastal areas) also will have the environmental benefits of less displacement of natural flora and fauna in these ecologically rich areas. These same areas also may serve as greenways, which benefit mitigation efforts. Increased recharge rates, which actually serve to reduce the extent of flooding, have very widespread benefits in terms of improved water supply and water quality.
With the exception of the Energy Use and Public Health (as represented by heat-stress mortality) sectors, effective adaptation actions in the CLIMB region taken by one sector have the potential to improve the service of other sectors as well as the environment, social and economic conditions, and mitigation. To capture these complementarities, a high level of cooperation by different infrastructure agencies in decisionmaking and implementation will be needed.
Overall Conclusions
Anticipatory Actions. A common result of the analyses is that not taking any adaptation actions over our analysis period of 2000 to 2100, is the most ineffective response. We showed in our full dynamic analyses, and it is implied from our localized case studies, that taking action well before 2100 results in less total adaptation and impact costs to the region. Some examples from above include implementing both structural and nonstructural flood management strategies before 2050 to reduce the total costs of flood mitigation and impacts; maintaining policies to continue to improve health care; implementing policies to encourage more energy efficient housing stock; integrating water quality management to include land use, drainage, and treatment; and continuing to maintain redundancy in road networks. Because of the integration of sectoral impacts and adaptation actions, taking action in one sector will benefit other sectors, particularly in the case of flood management. Because taking action earlier mitigates future impacts and in the case of infrastructure systems requires long lead times, our conclusion recommends against adaptive action planning and responses taken only after major impacts are incurred.
Land Use. Another common theme is that, as expected, present and future land use greatly affects the magnitude of the impacts. This is because the distribution of the population affects the location of the infrastructure and hence the impacts, but also, how the land is developed effects flood magnitudes and losses, water quality, water availability, and local heat island effects. Prohibition of new development—and where possible, flood proofing or retreat of existing development—in flood zones is an example of land use regulation that can both decrease potential damages to property and improve hydrological conditions, thereby decreasing the severity of flooding. In general, the threat of climate change reinforces the importance of good land-use planning.
Environmental Impacts. Because the emphasis of this research was on impacts on infrastructure, impacts on the environment were not directly considered. Potentially significant environmental impacts such as poorer air and water quality and wetland loss could accompany direct impacts on infrastructure. Generally, an adaptation action that best lessens an infrastructure impact also lessens environmental impacts. It also mitigates greenhouse gas emissions. One clear exception is the expansion of air conditioning to manage heat-stress mortality.
Socioeconomic Impacts. The impact and adaptation analyses through the use of various indicators measured some of the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on the region’s infrastructure. The incremental damage to properties in river flood and coastal zones under an increased frequency of extreme weather events is the most profound of the measurable economic impacts. The analyses, however, did not capture how impacts and the possible benefits of adaptation might be distributed throughout the region by age distribution, ethnic mix, economic prosperity, and other factors which may influence an individual’s ability to adapt.
Other and Hybrid Adaptation Actions. In most cases, we standardized and simplified our analyses by examining three adaptation responses. We never intended these to include all possible adaptation actions. There are many actions that were not considered, such as offshore protection structures or shoreline retreat, as well as possible combinations of actions by location or hybrid adaptation, such as RIO in one area and Green in another. As shown, however, in the coastal flooding part of the sea level rise section, and as should be expected, hybrid adaptation strategies are expected to be more beneficial than just a single type of response.
Some other adaptation actions not considered include: (1) updating all building and design codes to the present, not past, climate; (2) adding climate changes to the environmental impact statement process; and (3) major technology and lifestyle changes such as telecommuting, and high efficiency resource (e.g., energy, water) using devices.
Adaptation Actors and Institutions. The adaptation responses considered in this research will require actions by many institutions ranging from private citizens to the federal government. Our analysis and outreach activities indicate that local levels of government (municipalities and counties) will play an especially critical role in adaptation. Because of the complementarities of effective adaptation actions, a coordinated response strategy will be necessary.
Contribution to Understanding of and Solutions for Environmental Problems
The CLIMB study is based on the hypothesis that the operation and services provided by urban infrastructure will be impacted by climate change as they are sensitive to climate. Using various indicators, our research has shown that compared to conditions of just population growth, climate change impacts are significant in many infrastructure sectors. We also have identified some specific actions and policies that can be taken in the near-term future to lessen some of the negative impacts. These actions are not intended to be optimal in terms of timing, location, or even action, but they do show that taking anticipatory action wells before 2100 results in less total adaptation and impact costs to the region than taking no action. We also have shown that considering the joint or integrated effects of sectoral impacts and adaptation actions is beneficial.
Through our outreach activities, we have provided information about the research to many stakeholders at all institutional levels and have been, in turn, informed by them about issues of concern.
Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 47 publications | 4 publications in selected types | All 3 journal articles |
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Amato AD, Ruth M, Kirshen P, Horwtiz J. Regional energy demand responses to climate change: methodology and application to the commonwealth of Massachusetts. Climatic Change 2005;71(1-2):175-201. |
R827450 (Final) |
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Ruth M, Kirshen P. Integrated impacts of climate change upon infrastructure systems and services in the Boston metropolitan area. World Resource Review 2001;13(1):106-122. |
R827450 (2000) R827450 (Final) |
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Sanayei M, Edgers L, Alonge J, Kirshen P. Effects of increased wind loads on tall buildings. Civil Engineering Practice Fall/Winter 2003;18(2):5-16. |
R827450 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
water, watersheds, global climate, human health, indicators, integrated assessment, sustainable development, public policy, decisionmaking, community-based, engineering, social science, hydrology, geology, epidemiology, modeling, analytical, general circulation models, northeast, Atlantic coast, Massachusetts, MA, EPA Region 1, transportation, industry, infrastructure, climate change, urban, suburban, metropolitan, energy demand, flooding, sea level rise, water supply, wastewater treatment, public health, scenario analysis, buildings, bridges, Boston,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Hydrology, climate change, State, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Social Science, infrastructure systems, integrated assessments, water resources, policy making, flood control, energy generation, Boston Metropolitan Area, socioeconomic indicators, Massachusetts (MA), climate models, human activity, Boston, global warming, climate variability, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www.tufts.edu/tie/climb Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.