Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
EPA Grant Number: R827450Title: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
Investigators: Kirshen, Paul , Ruth, Matthias
Current Investigators: Kirshen, Paul , Vogel, Richard , Lakshmanan, T. R. , Gute, David , Edgers, Lewis , Sanayei, Masoud , Ruth, Matthias , Chapra, Steve , Chudyk, Wayne , Anderson, William
Institution: Tufts University , University of Maryland - College Park
Current Institution: Tufts University , Boston University , University of Maryland - College Park
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: September 14, 1999 through September 13, 2003 (Extended to March 12, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 14, 2000 through September 13, 2001
Project Amount: $899,985
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The services provided by infrastructure systems include flood control; water supply; drainage; waste water management; solid and hazardous waste management; energy; transportation; providing constructed facilities for residential, commercial, and industrial activities; communication; and recreation. The socioeconomic and environmental services they provide are essential; without them, the U.S. economy could not function and many human and environmental systems would collapse. This is particularly the case in metropolitan areas.
The objectives of the Climate's Long-Term Impacts on Metro Boston (CLIMB) project include: (1) documentation and analysis of the state of present infrastructure systems and the socioeconomic and environmental services provided by them in the Boston Metropolitan Area (BMA) (includes the major cities of Boston and Cambridge and 99 other municipalities within approximately 20 miles of Boston¾land use varies from urban to farms and open space) using various measures to indicate the contribution of these infrastructure systems and services (ISS) to the quality of life in the region; (2) determination of the integrated direct and indirect impacts of climate change, socioeconomic, and technology scenarios on the evolution of ISS and the regional quality of life over time; (3) identification and importance of policies and short- and long-term research needs for the provision of ISS that will meet stakeholder needs over time given the uncertainties of climate and other changes; and (4) collaboration with the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), our local partner, to ensure that stakeholders are involved, their concerns are addressed, and the project results are effectively communicated to them and the public at large, and to begin to engage stakeholders in the process of preparing for potential climate change.
The research approach involves working with stakeholders and experts to understand the multiple driving forces behind ISS in the BMA, and the vertical and horizontal interrelationships of ISS demands and impacts. It also involves building a dynamic analytical modeling tool that incorporates this understanding to: (1) organize data; (2) model socioeconomic and environmental dynamics and interrelated impacts of ISS; and (3) aid in communication of project results. This requires quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change upon present infrastructure; working with stakeholders to execute the model with various climate change, socioeconomic, and technology scenarios to achieve the research objectives; and communicating with the help of the MAPC to stakeholders and the general public throughout the project.
The research will improve the risk management of the impacts on infrastructure from future uncertain climate, socioeconomic, environmental, and technology changes by showing possible impacts and driving forces behind those impacts and their sensitivities, working with stakeholders to develop short- and long-term resilient policies and programs to mitigate and adapt to impacts, and empowering stakeholders and the general public with the results.
Progress Summary:
Over the past year, major progress has been made in the CLIMB project's modeling of ISS. In addition, there was significant outreach to stakeholders that served the dual purposes of creating awareness of urban climate change issues among infrastructure managers in the BMA, as well as further informing the CLIMB project on key issues.
Modules are being built for the following sectors: energy, communication, transportation, water supply, water quality, flooding, and public health. These sectors have been selected for integrated analysis because they are sensitive to one or more climate features that may change under global warming, they are important to the BMA in terms of quality of life and/or economic activity, and there are project resources and data available for the analysis.
The Energy Module of the CLIMB model has been developed on the basis of econometric analysis of relationships of fuel use by fuel type in each of the end use sectors (households, commercial, industrial, and services) for each of the region's subareas. Fuel demand is compared to regional supply; relationships are being established to quantify supply as a function of, for example, regional capacity and long-distance transmission, and supply-disruption by downed power lines, iced roads, brown-outs, and other causes. Costs of energy supply shortages, and disruptions to individual end-use sectors and the regional economy are calculated, and will be compared to estimates of mitigation and adaptation costs. The Communication Module has similar procedures to estimate disruption of communication lines due to iced lines, failing towers, and other causes.
A comprehensive modeling framework for analyzing the impact of extreme weather events on surface transportation systems in the BMA was developed for the Transport Module, in cooperation with the Central Transportation Planning Staff (Boston's MPO). The framework overlays spatial flood projections with networks of transportation (road and rail) infrastructure to identify those network links that will be impassable during extreme storm events and origin and destination areas. A model of urban transportation demand then is run to simulate climate impacts, including time lost to delays on public and private transportation, days of work lost, retail sales lost, and production lost due to disruptions in freight.
The Water Supply Module compares the demands from the household, commercial, industrial, and services sectors to the available yield of the sources in each subarea. Demands are based upon population, socioeconomic, and technological changes. Subarea shortages are met if possible from the region source of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. Impacts of shortages are measured by a series of indicators. Wastewater flows are used in the Water Quality Module.
Because less is known about the impacts of climate change on the water quality of the CLIMB region, a detailed water quality model of a local river has been built and is being run under a variety of climate change scenarios to develop reduced form relationships between climate change, impacts, and adaptation costs. That module will be scaled up to inform water quality changes on a larger regional scale.
The Flooding Module determines the flood losses and disruption from riverine and coastal flooding. It also includes land losses due to sea level rise. Riverine losses are based upon the 100- and 500-year Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood plain maps. Coastal flooding and sea level rise losses were originally based upon actual expected flood and sea level rise elevations. This has been hampered by lack of accurate elevation maps with contours less than 10 meters. Alternatives are being developed.
The Public Health Module estimates mortality and morbidity from heat stress. Regressions are now being built between health outcomes, climate, and socioeconomic variables.
Three internally consistent climate, policy, demographic, economic, and technological scenarios are being built to examine integrated impacts. They will initially use the Canadian Climate Center scenario as a guide for climate changes. The scenarios are named: "Ride It Out," "Green or Planned Adaptation," and "Build Way Out." They have been selected based upon stakeholder response to climate change.
A climate data generator has been constructed that allows generation of time-series of weather events corresponding to different climates.
All the research has direct bearing on helping prepare the BMA for long-term, uncertain climate change. In addition, the research methodology can serve as a template for metropolitan areas throughout the world.
Future Activities:
Over the next year, we will concentrate upon completing the research. The major activities will be: testing the individual model components, integrating them into one model, further data collection to support the scenarios, executing the integrated model, and reviewing and sharing the results with the Stakeholder Advisory Committee and Stakeholders.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 47 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
global warming, Massachusetts, MA, adaptation, cities, North America, humid, developed world., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Hydrology, climate change, State, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Social Science, infrastructure systems, integrated assessments, water resources, policy making, flood control, energy generation, Boston Metropolitan Area, socioeconomic indicators, Massachusetts (MA), climate models, human activity, Boston, global warming, climate variability, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www.tufts.edu/tie/climb Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.