Grantee Research Project Results
2000 Progress Report: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
EPA Grant Number: R827450Title: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
Investigators: Kirshen, Paul , Ruth, Matthias
Current Investigators: Kirshen, Paul , Vogel, Richard , Lakshmanan, T. R. , Gute, David , Edgers, Lewis , Sanayei, Masoud , Ruth, Matthias , Chapra, Steve , Chudyk, Wayne , Anderson, William
Institution: Tufts University , University of Maryland - College Park , Boston University
Current Institution: Tufts University , Boston University , University of Maryland - College Park
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: September 14, 1999 through September 13, 2003 (Extended to March 12, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 14, 1999 through September 13, 2000
Project Amount: $899,985
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The socioeconomic and environmental services provided by urban infrastructure systems include flood control; water supply; drainage; wastewater management; energy; transportation; constructed facilities for residential, commercial, and industrial activities; communication; and public health. The objectives of the Climate's Long-Term Impacts on Metro Boston (CLIMB) project include:
- Documentation and analysis of the state of present infrastructure systems and the socioeconomic and environmental services provided by them in the Boston Metropolitan Area (BMA, which includes the major cities of Boston and Cambridge and 99 other municipalities within approximately 20 miles of Boston — land use varies from urban to farms and open space) using various indicators to indicate their contribution to the quality of life in the region.
- Determination of the integrated direct and indirect impacts of climate change, socioeconomic, and technology scenarios on the future evolution of infrastructure, the services provided by that infrastructure, and the regional quality of life over time.
- Identification and importance of policies and short- and long-term research needs for the provision of infrastructure services that will meet stakeholder needs over time given the uncertainties of climate and other changes.
- Collaboration with the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), our local partner, to ensure that stakeholders are involved, their concerns are addressed, and the project results are effectively communicated to them and the public at large and to begin to engage stakeholders in the process of preparing for potential climate change.
Progress Summary:
Below are summaries of work status and preliminary results, emphasizing findings and their significance to the field, and their relationship to the goals of the project.
White Papers. At the start of the project, the research team produced "white papers" on each of the major sectors under study: climate change, flooding, water quality, water supply, built environment, energy, transportation, communication, public health, and recreation and tourism. These papers were intended for internal discussion only and were produced quickly with the minimum of research to form the basis for initial team meetings on the research issues and approach. More detail on background papers is given in the next section. One of the results of the white papers was that recreation and tourism was dropped as a primary research sector; impacts on recreation and tourism would be measured as secondary impacts of climate change on infrastructure. Based upon the white papers, data collection was started on infrastructure inventory, related research, existing climate sensitivities of systems, and climate, socioeconomic, and technological scenarios. Data from present natural hazards mitigation seemed particularly useful. These data were used in the background papers described below.
Background Papers. Members of the team then wrote background research papers on the major sectors. Each paper generally included an Executive Summary, Description of the System, Inventory in Region, Possible Impacts under Socioeconomic and Climate Changes, and References. They are available at the project Web site, www.tufts.edu/tie/climb, as Workshop Background Papers. These papers served as focal points for the March 2000 CLIMB Workshop (discussed next). Based upon these papers and the response of the Workshop participants to the issues raised, focus areas (listed below) were selected for each sector. These also are summaries of the major potential impacts of climate change in a coastal city in the northeastern United States.
Flooding/Drainage
- Climate change impacts on precipitation, wind patterns, and sea level rise.
- Land use conversion and increased vulnerability.
- Flooding of coastal and inland areas.
- Changing regulations for new development.
Water Supply
- Climate change impacts on hydrology.
- Changing nature of demands and technology of water supply and use.
- Management of localized systems.
- Impacts of climate change upon demands.
- Effectiveness of current water supply regulations under climate change.
Water Quality
- Increased bacteria, TSS, and other waste loads during wet weather due to incomplete treatment and increased nonpoint source contributions to surface waters.
- Reduced oxygen amounts in surface waters due to high average temperature and low flows.
Built Environment
- Coastal flooding.
- Bridge scour.
- Tall buildings.
- Residential structures.
- Communication and energy towers.
- Technology changes.
Energy
- Potential for distributed power supply (i.e., photovoltaics) and combined heat and power, both in the industrial and residential sector.
- Speed of technology change and adoption (with respect to changing fuel mix and distributed supply).
- Impacts of severe weather on energy (electricity, heating oil) distribution, power generation, and fuel storage.
Transportation and Communication
- Impacts of extreme weather events on performance of transportation networks under climate change scenarios.
- Impacts of extreme weather events on transportation safety under climate change scenarios.
- Possible damage to transportation and communication infrastructure.
- Effect of anticipated climate change on cost of new infrastructure.
- Cost of retrofitting existing infrastructure for anticipated climate change.
- Indirect effects of global climate change on transportation demand.
Public Health
- Climate change impacts on both human populations and vectors.
- Integration with areas of water supply, land use, and air pollution.
- Environmental justice as a lens to look through in defining the problems posed by global climate change as well as identifying appropriate interventions.
Workshop. An all day workshop on "Climate's Long-Term Impacts on Metro Boston: Exploring Consequences and Management Options" was held at Tufts University on March 24, 2000, to bring together infrastructure managers, regional planners, and researchers to discuss potential impacts of global warming-induced climate change on the infrastructure of the Metropolitan Boston area and strategies to prevent, reduce, or manage possible risks. There were approximately 90 participants. Because the workshop resulted in consensus among stakeholders that the potential impacts of climate change on infrastructure in the Metropolitan Boston area were of concern, most participants also expressed interest in becoming members of the CLIMB Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG). Summary Workshops results are on the CLIMB Web site at http://www.tufts.edu/tie/climb. Following the Workshop, there were followup meetings with particular subgroups of the SAG for each of the CLIMB sectors.
Model Formulation. The research team formulated the Dynamic Model component of the CLIMB Project (CLIMBDM) to provide a tool for scenario analysis and decision support. Specifically, CLIMBDM facilitates the following key aspects of the CLIMB project: Data Organization, Prioritization of Data Collection Efforts, Transparency of Model Assumptions, Scenario Analysis, Indicator Development, and Decision Support. Because climate change, socioeconomic, and technological impacts will differently influence subareas of the Boston metro area, the region has been divided into five subareas. Temporal effects are modeled by simulating possible impacts over the period 2000 to 2100. CLIMBDM distinguishes between two kinds of data — exogenous and endogenous variables. The latter are calculated in the model on the basis of engineering, economic or other relationships. The group of exogenously specified variables to a large extent consists of annual demographic, technological and economic variables which change demand for infrastructure systems and services, and annual means and extremes of climatic variables which impact the performance of infrastructure systems and the levels of demands for services. The model calculates three different kinds the cost associated with climate-induced changes in infrastructure systems and services: loss of service cost; repair/replacement cost; and adaptation cost.
Because future socioeconomic and technological (SET) changes as well as climate characteristics are unknown, scenarios of these are input for each subarea for each year for the period 2000 to 2100. The general procedure is that a set of different climate change scenarios are simulated for each particular SET scenario. Moreover, because climate conditions vary from year to year even without climate change, different sequences of yearly climate conditions will be simulated for each separate climate change scenario. If sufficient sequences are simulated (Monte Carlo simulation), then the aggregate output of all the sequences will be the expected impacts under a particular climate change scenario given a SET scenario.
The model initially will be executed without allowing for internal adaptation to climate change; the only response to climate change will be changes in services and damages. Stakeholders will review the results using the indicators and make adjustments to the input socioeconomic and technology scenarios to mimic possible adaptations to the impacts. Once stakeholders have experience using the model, the model also will simulate possible adaptations to climate change in response to service and damage changes. Stakeholders again will review impacts and adjust scenarios and adaptation options.
A key challenge to modeling impacts of climate change is to ensure that the adjustment processes calculated inside the model are consistent with the behavior of exogenously defined variables. For example, a set of exogenous socioeconomic variables such as income or household size may drive changes in land use patterns that result in demands for infrastructure systems and services, which — when impacted by climate change — may not be consistent with the assumptions that led to those socioeconomic variables. The resulting infrastructure system may not be able to sustain the income levels or household sizes that underlie the exogenous projections. Consequently, exogenous assumptions will be periodically revisited by researchers and stakeholders to ensure consistency. Involving stakeholders is essential for at least two reasons. First, stakeholders may have valuable experiences and knowledge that will help reveal inconsistencies and identify changes to the assumptions that are necessary to foster consistency. Second, the iterative process of model execution, consistency checking, and model reformulation are key to learning about the behavior of the complex climate-infrastructure-society-economy system on which policy and investment decisions are based.
Future Activities:
By the end of the first year, we had originally planned to have the dynamic model formulated and by the end of the second year to have simulated both present and changed climate scenarios. Because of the extraordinary effort of setting up the SAG and the Workshop, model formulation was not completed in Year One. We now plan to focus on model development in Year Two under present climate conditions and then, in Year Three, run simulations under climate change. Stakeholder interaction in Year Two will include meetings with sectoral members of the SAG, a large public workshop in Spring 2001, and more interaction with municipalities. We still expect to complete the research on schedule.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 47 publications | 4 publications in selected types | All 3 journal articles |
---|
Type | Citation | ||
---|---|---|---|
|
Ruth M, Kirshen P. Integrated impacts of climate change upon infrastructure systems and services in the Boston metropolitan area. World Resource Review 2001;13(1):106-122. |
R827450 (2000) R827450 (Final) |
Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
global climate, air, water, drinking water, watersheds, groundwater, land, health effects, stressor, susceptibility, indicators, public policy, socioeconomic, engineering, social science, hydrology, epidemiology, modeling, northeast, Massachusetts, MA, EPA Region 1, business, transportation, industry., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Hydrology, climate change, State, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Social Science, infrastructure systems, integrated assessments, water resources, policy making, flood control, energy generation, Boston Metropolitan Area, socioeconomic indicators, Massachusetts (MA), climate models, human activity, Boston, global warming, climate variability, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www.tufts.edu/tie/climb Exit
http://www.ase.tufts.edu/cee Exit
http://www.puaf.umd.edu Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.