Grantee Research Project Results
2002 Progress Report: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
EPA Grant Number: R827450Title: Infrastructure Systems, Services, and Climate Change: Integrated Impacts and Response Strategies for the Boston Metropolitan Area
Investigators: Kirshen, Paul , Ruth, Matthias
Current Investigators: Kirshen, Paul , Vogel, Richard , Lakshmanan, T. R. , Gute, David , Edgers, Lewis , Sanayei, Masoud , Ruth, Matthias , Chapra, Steve , Chudyk, Wayne , Anderson, William
Institution: Tufts University , Boston University
Current Institution: Tufts University , Boston University , University of Maryland - College Park
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: September 14, 1999 through September 13, 2003 (Extended to March 12, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 14, 2001 through September 13, 2002
Project Amount: $899,985
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The services provided by infrastructure systems include flood control, water supply, drainage, waste water management, solid and hazardous waste management, energy, transportation, providing constructed facilities for residential, commercial, and industrial activities, communication, and recreation. The socioeconomic and environmental services they provide are essential; without them, the U.S. economy could not function and many human and environmental systems would collapse. This particularly is the case in metropolitan areas.
The objectives of the Climate's Long-Term Impacts on Metro Boston (CLIMB) project include the: (1) documentation and analysis of the state of present infrastructure systems and the socioeconomic and environmental services provided by them in the Boston Metropolitan Area (BMA) (includes the major cities of Boston and Cambridge and 99 other municipalities within approximately 20 miles of Boston; land use varies from urban to farms and open space) using various measures to indicate the contribution of these infrastructure systems and services (ISS) to the quality of life in the region; (2) determination of the integrated direct and indirect impacts of climate change, socioeconomic, and technology scenarios on the evolution of ISS and the regional quality of life over time; (3) identification and importance of policies and short- and long-term research needs for the provision of ISS that will meet stakeholder needs over time, given the uncertainties of climate and other changes; and (4) collaboration with the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), our local partner, to ensure that stakeholders are involved, their concerns are addressed, and the project results are effectively communicated to them and the public at large, and to begin to engage stakeholders in the process of preparing for potential climate change.
The research approach includes:
(1) Working with stakeholders and experts to understand the multiple driving forces behind ISS in the BMA and the vertical and horizontal interrelationships of ISS demands and impacts;
(2) Building dynamic analytical modeling tools that incorporate this understanding to:
- (a) organize data;
(b) model socioeconomic and environmental dynamics and interrelated impacts of ISS; and
(c) aid in communication of project results; this requires quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change on present infrastructure;
(3) Working with stakeholders to execute the model with various climate change, socioeconomic, and technology scenarios to achieve the research objectives; and
(4) Communicating with the help of MAPC to stakeholders and the general public throughout the project.
This research will improve the risk management of the impacts on infrastructure from future uncertain climate, socioeconomic, environmental, and technology changes by showing possible impacts and driving forces behind those impacts and their sensitivities, working with stakeholders to develop short- and long-term resilient policies and programs to mitigate and adapt to impacts, and empowering stakeholders and the general public with the results.
Progress Summary:
Modules are being built for the following sectors: Energy, Transportation, Water Supply, Water Quality, Flooding, and Public Health. These sectors have been selected for integrated analysis because they are sensitive to one or more climate features that may change under global warming, they are important to the BMA in terms of quality of life and/or economic activity, and there are project resources and data available for the analysis.
Three internally consistent climate, policy, demographic, economic, and technological scenarios have been built to examine integrated impacts. They use the Canadian Climate Center and Hadley Center general circulation models (GCMs) as guides for climate changes. The scenarios are named: "Ride It Out," "Green or Planned Adaptation," and "Build Way Out." They have been selected based on stakeholder response to climate change.
The Energy Module of the CLIMB model has been developed on the basis of econometric analyses of relationships of fuel use by fuel type in each of the household and commercial sectors for each of the region's subareas. Extensive statistical analyses have been conducted on relationships among energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors in the study region on one hand, and ambient monthly temperatures, daylight hours, and energy prices on the other. The statistical relationships have been used in conjunction with various climate scenarios for the years 2000-2050 to simulate potential climate impacts on sectoral energy demand by fuel type (electricity, natural gas, heating fuel oil). The most significant finding is a future change in seasonal energy demands (decrease in winter and increase in summer) and thus, a shift in fuel use in the region.
Working in collaboration with the Central Transportation Planning Staff (technical staff to the Boston Metropolitan Planning Organization), the CLIMB transportation team produced a set of estimates for impacts of extreme weather events on BMA's road system. The method involved identifying transportation links that would be interrupted under different flood scenarios (100- and 500-year floods in coastal areas, riverine areas, or both). This information is fed into a comprehensive model of the transportation system in the BMA. The impacts are defined in terms of lost trips and hours of delay resulting from storm events. Results indicate that although coastal storms cause more lost trips, riverine floods result in greater impacts on delay. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a model of this type has been applied to simulate the effect of weather events.
The water supply module compares the demands from the household, commercial, industrial, and services sectors to the available yield of the sources in each subarea. Demands are based on population, socioeconomic, and technological changes. Subarea shortages are met, if possible, from the region source of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. Impacts of shortages are measured by a series of indicators. Preliminary results show that the region's supply will be stressed if there is more future climate variability and increased population growth. This is the situation even if streamflows and aquifer recharge increase as some climate and hydrologic models indicate.
Because less is known about the impacts of climate change on the water quality of the CLIMB region, a detailed water quality model of a local river has been built and run under a variety of climate-change scenarios. The research has been completed and it has been found that water quality, as measured by dissolved oxygen, could be severely impacted in the region because of higher water temperatures, lower flows, and higher point and nonpoint sources. By 2050, depending on climate change scenario, wastewater treatment capital and operation costs could increase by 50 percent more than scenarios without climate change.
The flooding module determines the flood losses and disruption from riverine and coastal flooding. It also includes land losses due to sea level rise (SLR). Riverine and coastal losses are based on the 100- and 500-year Federal Emergency Management Agency flood plain maps. Preliminary results indicate that total property and contents and emergency services damages from coastal storm surges influenced by eustatic (i.e., climate change induced) and subsidence SLR over the next 100 years could range from $20 billion to $94 billion if there are no adaptative responses except rebuilding after floods. Total or cumulative damages expected with no eustatic SLR are $6.4 billion. If there is proactive adaptation that limits building, increases flood-proofing, or builds some protective structures, some damages could be avoided cost effectively. Riverine flooding analysis is still ongoing.
Extensive statistical analyses have been conducted to quantify on the basis of public health records the local relationships between mortality on one hand and air temperature and amount of snow fall on the other. The statistical relationships have been used in conjunction with various climate scenarios for the years 2000-2025 to simulate potential climate impacts on mortality from heat or cold. Statistical results clearly indicate that historical heat thresholds (temperatures above which mortality rates significantly rose) were at approximately 90°F, but that over time, the population's sensitivity to high temperatures decreased. No similarly strong relationship could be found for mortality and low temperatures in the region. Simulation results indicate that if past "desensitization" continues, then the resulting decline in mortality trends will, in the long run, be larger than any possible mortality increases from climate change. This, however, will require the continued increase in air conditioning, whose energy demands will contribute to greenhouse gases.
We also have conducted some exploratory analyses of potential impacts of climate change on the wind loads on tall buildings and of scour on bridge foundations. Hypothetically, tall structures will not experience significant decreases in the factors of safety associated with the design, but may experience changes in the aesthetics or serviceability (the comfort of the people occupying buildings and architectural damage caused by building deflections); possibly cracks in the façade or stressed utilities. We evaluated the possible effects due to 10- to 30-percent increases in the 100-year flood discharge caused by climate change on scour depth at the foundations of a typical bridge in the BMA and possible remediation and replacement strategies. We found that in some cases, the additional scour was damaging and that riprap was the most cost-effective protection method.
In the spring of 2002, we held workshops with key local, state, and some national decisionmakers in each of the sectors to inform them of our approaches, and preliminary results, and to refine our work, based on their feedback.
Future Activities:
We received a 1-year, no-cost extension in the summer of 2002. During the next year, we will concentrate on completing the research. The major activities will be to finish the separate analyses and integrate the results. We also have a public event to present and discuss the results with our stakeholder partners.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 47 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
global warming, Massachusetts, MA, adaptation, cities, North America, humid, developed world., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Hydrology, climate change, State, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Social Science, infrastructure systems, integrated assessments, water resources, policy making, flood control, energy generation, Boston Metropolitan Area, socioeconomic indicators, Massachusetts (MA), climate models, human activity, Boston, global warming, climate variability, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www.tufts.edu/tie/climb Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.