Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species
EPA Grant Number: R830877Title: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species
Investigators: Whitlatch, Robert B. , Osman, Richard W.
Institution: University of Connecticut
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2007
Project Amount: $564,430
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
We used southern New England coastal habitats as model systems to address the interaction of climate change, anthropogenic stresses resulting from variability in land use patterns, and the response of recently introduced marine invasive species in order to assess how the aliens act to alter coastal ecosystems. The primary goals of the project were to develop a stressor-response modeling approach of these interactions for the use of coastal zone managers to assess regional coastal environmental problems, as well as use invasive species as “sentinels” of the interaction of climate change and environmental degradation. Our previous work indicated that (a) warming of southern New England coastal waters over the past several decades is correlated with an increasing abundance of invasive marine species, and (b) lower local habitat biodiversity, which is often characteristic of more stressed coastal areas, appears to make these areas more vulnerable to invasion by alien species. Using this information, we experimentally tested these interactions over a range of coastal habitats in southern New England to address such issues as: what are the significance interactions among the multiple stressors (land use and climate change) and are the effects additive or non-additive. We also developed a coupled physical biological model to assess the interactions of land use patterns and climate change on the alteration of coastal marine systems by non-native marine species. The model was constructed to be applied to a variety of coastal systems and provide information on how human-induced alterations to these systems (e.g., marina development, shore-line armoring, breakwaters, water quality) may influence their vulnerability to invasion of non-native species.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
During the project we have accomplished the following principal tasks. Firstly, to begin to explore, and subsequently model, the relationships among coastal landscape features and the distribution of native and invasive fouling species in southern New England, a geographic information system (GIS) module was developed. This GIS-module consisted of various data layers that related terrestrial and aquatic factors that may influence coastal marine species distributions. The GIS-module was constructed for the entire coastline of Connecticut and portions of eastern Rhode Island using data obtained from a variety of sources, including the State of Connecticut, State of Rhode Island, the USGS and NOAA. The data layers included, for example, land use/land cover, infrastructure, hydrology, coastal wetlands, bathymetry, nearshore habitats (tidal flats, shoals, etc.), dock and marina locations, and leachate and wastewater discharge sites. The GIS-module was then used to extract and derive data for different sampling locations where fouling communities were sampled to assess the distributions of native and non-native fouling species. The data were then analyzed, in conjunction with species composition and abundance estimates, using multivariate techniques. The multivariate analyses indicated there were generally four different species groups among the 19 sampling locations throughout the study area. One group was generally representative of more urbanized coastal habitats (e.g, Thames River, New Haven Harbor), while another group tended to be more associated with marina habitats. Patterns of total species richness indicated that more impacted sites generally had reduced species richness and often a higher proportion of non-native species.
Secondly, we conducted a number of field experimental studies at selected sub-sets of habitats sampled previously. The sites were typically grouped into ‘industrialized’, ‘urbanized’ and ‘suburbanized’ categories and our primary focus was to assess how different non-native species responded to variations in coastal land use patterns, temperature, salinity and depth. While the results varied between species, most grew faster in shallow water sites of higher salinity and temperature. Frequently, there were no differences in growth rates between urbanized and suburbanized areas. The greatest number of non-native ascidians were typically found in areas with moderately degraded water quality conditions, although some of the more recent invaders (e.g., Didemnum sp.) appeared less tolerant of polluted waters than other ascidian species which invaded the region in the past several decades. These results suggest that many areas of southern New England and Long Island Sound are at risk from invasion of non-native species. In addition, some invaders grew best in areas with undeveloped coastlines. On the positive side, this suggests that the largest infestations of non-native species may occur in areas with lower numbers of people. Hence, limited contact with people and their docks and boats may reduce the rate at which the aliens are accidentally spread by human-related activities. On the negative side, sensitive ecosystems in the few underdeveloped areas of the southern New England coastline might be at particular risk of colonization by these often aggressive non-native species. We also conducted a number of community transplant experiments to determine the interactive effects of warming water and existing stresses on the degree to which native communities may be altered by the increased success of newly introduced species. Results indicated that some of the non-native fouling species tended to grow faster at sites receiving more anthropogenic stress and sites which land use patterns are more undeveloped. Collectively, these results provide important information for coastal zone resource managers as to which habitats may be more vulnerable to the invasion of non-native species as well as information on which resident species may be most impacted by the invaders once they have established themselves.
We also developed a coupled physical-biological model to assess the interactions of land use patterns and climate change on the alteration of coastal marine systems by non-native marine species. Using data from previous work, coupled with information collected during this project, we were able to examine a number of questions. For example, we used the model to drive water movement within idealized local systems (e.g., simplified embayments, harbors, estuaries) with different habitat distributions that included coastal development (e.g., marinas, power plants, shoreline modifications) and natural and/or restored habitats (e.g., rocky areas, seagrass beds, marshes, sediments). The hydrodynamic model allowed us to explore the connectiveness among habitats within these systems via the production, movement and recruitment of larvae of species with differing life histories. The main components of the model are bathymetry, tidally-driven hydrodynamics, habitat distributions and basic demographic parameters of the organisms to be modeled. The hydrodynamic portion of the model operates in two stages; the first consisting of a linear hydrodynamic model of LIS using a grid size of ~1000 m, the second is based a non-linear model of a specific embayment or estuary using a grid size of 20 m. The second phase incorporates bathymetric data, obtained from the USGS and is driven at the corners of its open boundaries by the tide height derived from the Sound model. The model produces a velocity field and tide heights as functions of time throughout the domain at 1 second intervals. We used this approach to successfully model a small estuary (Poquonnock River) located in southeastern Connecticut and the modeling approach is readily adaptable to other estuaries. The hydrodynamic model is the coupled to an individual-based larval transport simulator that predicts larval release and recruitment dynamics at locations in specific embayment/estuary. Each of the 20 x 20 m grid cells is given a habitat designation. The cells can also be defined as 'source' or 'non-source' areas for larval release. The designation can be based on habitat type, the known distribution of a particular species being modeled, geographic location, or any other measured parameter. For example, habitats for fouling organisms can be rocks, seagrasses or man-made structures (e.g., pilings, marinas), while cells classified as soft-sediments are not. Individual cells can be enabled, disabled or weighted to represent differences in their relative contribution to the larval pool. The transport model simulates the release of larvae from potential source areas and their transport by tidal components of the water flow to potential destination areas. The larval transport model produces estimates of the relative magnitude of the settlement at these potential destinations. Turbulent motion is simulated by adding a small random component to the velocity field and a larval loss probability is introduce to simulate planktonic mortality and/or the length of time an individual larvae remains in the water column.
The model is designed to be very flexible; for example we can vary when and where larvae are released, how long they remain in the water column and planktonic mortality rates. The spatial position and arrangement of larval release within each source cell and the number of larvae released per cell can also be modified. In addition, the larval transport results can be used interactively with spatially explicit population and community models. These models used the same spatial local systems of the hydrodynamic model. Output from the larval transport model defined recruitment into local habitat patches or cells within these patches. Population growth and mortality, community structure, and resilience of communities in local habitats and habitat characteristics (e.g., water quality, landuse patterns, seasonally temperature variations) determined. The set of environmental variables (e.g. increased stress, changing temperature regimes, relative degree of native vs non-native species) necessary to cause community alterations can be examined. Results of this modeling approach are useful in identifying goals for potential adaptive management strategies such as the mix of allowable coastal zone development and/or habitat restoration necessary to maintain resident assemblages of coastal zone species and identifying which systems may be most vulnerable to the ecological and/or economic impacts of non-native species.
Journal Articles on this Report : 9 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 38 publications | 9 publications in selected types | All 9 journal articles |
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Altman S, Whitlatch RB. Effects of small-scale disturbance on invasion success in marine communities. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):15-29. |
R830877 (Final) R832448 (2006) R832448 (2007) R832448 (Final) |
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Bullard SG, Lambert G, Carman MR, Byrnes J, Whitlatch RB, Ruiz G, Miller RJ, Harris L, Valentine PC, Collie JS, Pederson J, McNaught DC, Cohen AN, Asch RG, Dijkstra J, Heinonen K. The colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. A:current distribution, basic biology and potential threat to marine communities of the northeast and west coasts of North America. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):99-108. |
R830877 (Final) R832448 (2006) R832448 (2007) R832448 (Final) |
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Bullard SG, Sedlack B, Reinhardt JF, Litty C, Dareau K, Whitlatch RB. Fragmentation of colonial ascidians: differences in reattachment capability among species. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):166-168. |
R830877 (Final) |
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McCarthy A, Osman RW, Whitlatch RB. Effects of temperature on growth rates of colonial ascidians: a comparison of Didemnum sp. to Botryllus schlosseri and Botrylloides violaceus. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):172-174. |
R830877 (Final) R832448 (2006) R832448 (2007) R832448 (Final) |
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Norkko A, Rosenberg R, Thrush SF, Whitlatch RB. Scale-and intensity-dependent disturbance determines the magnitude of opportunistic response. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2006;330(1):195-207. |
R830877 (2005) R830877 (Final) |
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Osman RW, Whitlatch RB. Variation in the ability of Didemnum sp. to invade established communities. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):40-53. |
R830877 (2005) R830877 (Final) R832448 (2006) R832448 (2007) R832448 (Final) |
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Tenore KR, Zajac RN, Terwin J, Andrade F, Blanton J, Boynton W, Carey D, Diaz R, Holland AF, Lopez-Jamar E, Montagna P, Nichols F, Rosenberg R, Queiroga H, Sprung M, Whitlatch RB. Characterizing the role benthos play in large coastal seas and estuaries: a modular approach. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2006;330(1):392-402. |
R830877 (2005) R830877 (Final) |
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Whitlatch RB, Bullard SG. Introduction to the proceedings of the 1st international invasive sea squirt conference. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):1-2. |
R830877 (Final) |
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Whitlatch RB, Bullard SG. Proceedings of the 1st international sea squirt conference. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):1-190. |
R830877 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
global climate, marine, estuary, ecological effects, ecosystem, indicators, ecology, modeling, northeast,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Habitat, Regional/Scaling, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, anthropogenic stress, coastal ecosystem, aquatic species vulnerability, biodiversity, environmental measurement, ecosystem assessment, meteorology, climatic influence, global change, New England, climate, habitat loss, anthropogenic, climate models, environmental stress, invasive species, ecological models, climate model, Global Climate Change, land use, regional anthropogenic stresses, atmospheric chemistry, stressor response model, ambient air pollution, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
http://www.marinesciences.uconn.edu/teamb/Pages/Team%20Benthos.htm Exit . This web site has a link to the current EPA-supported research project and will be periodically updated to include recent findings, etc.
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.