Grantee Research Project Results
2005 Progress Report: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species
EPA Grant Number: R830877Title: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species
Investigators: Whitlatch, Robert B. , Osman, Richard W.
Institution: University of Connecticut
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2005 through May 31, 2006
Project Amount: $564,430
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
We are using southern New England coastal habitats as model systems to address the interaction of climate change and anthropogenic stresses resulting from variability in land use patterns in the response of recently introduced marine invasive species and how these species act to alter coastal ecosystems. The primary goals of the project are to develop a stressor-response model of these interactions for ecosystem managers to assess regional coastal environmental problems, as well as use invasive species as “sentinels” of the interaction of climate change and environmental degradation. Our previous work indicates (a) warming of coastal waters is correlated with an increasing abundance of invasive marine species, and (b) lower biodiversity, which is characteristic of more stressed coastal habitats, appear to make these areas more susceptible to invasion. Using this information, we are experimentally testing and modeling these interactions over a range of coastal southern New England habitats to address such issues as: what are the significance interactions among the multiple stressors (land use and climate change) and are the effects additive or non-additive and provide insight into which coastal habitats may be most vulnerable to the invasion of non-native species. This information is important for coastal zone resource managers in terms of assessing which habitats are going to be most affected by projected scenarios of climate change in southern New England coastal waters.
Progress Summary:
During the second year of the project a number of field experiments were deployed which were designed to examine the interactions of anthropogenic stressors and increasing water on the rates of species introductions and the impacts of these on native communities. The field sites were typically grouped into ‘industrialized’, ‘urbanized’ and ‘suburbanized’ categories and our primary focus was to assess how different non-native species responded to variations in coastal land use patterns, temperature, salinity and depth. While the results varied between species, most grew faster in shallow water sites of higher salinity and temperature. Frequently, there were no differences in growth rates between urbanized and suburbanized areas. The greatest number of non-native ascidians were typically found in areas with moderately degraded water quality conditions, although some of the more recent invaders (e.g., Didemnum sp.) appeared less tolerant of polluted waters than other ascidian species which invaded the region in the past several decades. These results suggest that many areas of southern New England and Long Island Sound are at risk from invasion of non-native species. In addition, some invaders grew best in areas with undeveloped coastlines. On the positive side, this suggests that the largest infestations of non-native species may occur in areas with lower numbers of people. Hence, limited contact with people and their docks and boats may reduce the rate at which the aliens are accidentally spread by human-related activities. On the negative side, sensitive ecosystems in the few underdeveloped areas of the southern New England coastline might be at particular risk of colonization by these often aggressive non-native species.
We are also continuing to developed a coupled physical-biological model to assess the interactions of land use patterns and climate change on the alteration of coastal marine systems by non-native marine species. Using data from previous work, coupled with information collected during this project, we were able to examine a number of questions. For example, we used the model to drive water movement within idealized local systems (e.g., simplified embayments, harbors, estuaries) with different habitat distributions that included coastal development (e.g., marinas, power plants, shoreline modifications) and natural and/or restored habitats (e.g., rocky areas, seagrass beds, marshes, sediments). The hydrodynamic model allowed us to explore the connectiveness among habitats within these systems via the production, movement and recruitment of larvae of species with differing life histories. The main components of the model are bathymetry, tidally-driven hydrodynamics, habitat distributions and basic demographic parameters of the organisms to be modeled. The hydrodynamic portion of the model operates in two stages; the first consisting of a linear hydrodynamic model of LIS using a grid size of ~1000 m, the second is based a non-linear model of a specific embayment or estuary using a grid size of 20 m. The second phase incorporates bathymetric data, obtained from the USGS and is driven at the corners of its open boundaries by the tide height derived from the Sound model. The model produces a velocity field and tide heights as functions of time throughout the domain at 1 second intervals. We used this approach to successfully model a small estuary (Poquonnock River) located in southeastern Connecticut. The hydrodynamic model is the coupled to an individual-based larval transport simulator that predicts larval release and recruitment dynamics at locations in specific embayment/estuary. Each of the 20 x 20 m grid cells is given a habitat designation. The cells can also be defined as ‘source’ or ‘non-source’ areas for larval release. The designation can be based on habitat type, the known distribution of a particular species being modeled, geographic location, or any other measured parameter. For example, habitats for fouling organisms can be rocks, seagrasses or man-made structures (e.g., pilings, marinas), while cells classified as soft-sediments are not. Individual cells can be enabled, disabled or weighted to represent differences in their relative contribution to the larval pool. The transport model simulates the release of larvae from potential source areas and their transport by tidal components of the water flow to potential destination areas. The larval transport model produces estimates of the relative magnitude of the settlement at these potential destinations. Turbulent motion is simulated by adding a small random component to the velocity field and a larval loss probability is introduce to simulate planktonic mortality and/or the length of time an individual larvae remains in the water column.
Future Activities:
We will continue to couple a field and modeling component that delineates the impacts on shallow water habitats resulting from changing land-use with an experimental field component that examines directly the interacting effects of increasing water temperatures and anthropogenic stresses on the rates of species introductions and the impacts of these on native communities. Additional field experiments will be deployed to simulate predicted temperature changes and the population and community responses of native and recently introduced species. Additional transplant experiments will also be deployed to determine the interactive effects of warming water and existing stresses on the degree to which native communities may be altered by the increased success of newly introduced species. The measurement and modeling of nutrient inputs, the placement of marinas, docks and other alternations of the coastal zone will be simulated and tested using a combination of model simulations and field experimental studies. The model will be designed to present easily-understood scenarios to coastal zone resource managers and planners. We will continue to develop a stressor-response model which simulates these interactions and that can be used by managers to discern which habitats are most vulnerable to the multiple stressors. Our overall approach is to use population/community models to couple the interacting effects of the more system-wide stress of climatic warming with local stresses resulting from changing land use patterns and changes in the abundance of invasive species. Models of population/community effects are adaptable, can predict both large and small scale phenomena, and can be used by mangers of both local and regional systems. We will examine the uncertainties of the model predictions, how can the model results be extrapolated both spatially and temporally and how can the model be tested and validated.
Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 38 publications | 9 publications in selected types | All 9 journal articles |
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Norkko A, Rosenberg R, Thrush SF, Whitlatch RB. Scale-and intensity-dependent disturbance determines the magnitude of opportunistic response. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2006;330(1):195-207. |
R830877 (2005) R830877 (Final) |
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Osman RW, Whitlatch RB. Variation in the ability of Didemnum sp. to invade established communities. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2007;342(1):40-53. |
R830877 (2005) R830877 (Final) R832448 (2006) R832448 (2007) R832448 (Final) |
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Tenore KR, Zajac RN, Terwin J, Andrade F, Blanton J, Boynton W, Carey D, Diaz R, Holland AF, Lopez-Jamar E, Montagna P, Nichols F, Rosenberg R, Queiroga H, Sprung M, Whitlatch RB. Characterizing the role benthos play in large coastal seas and estuaries: a modular approach. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 2006;330(1):392-402. |
R830877 (2005) R830877 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
global climate, marine, estuary, ecological effects, ecosystem, indicators, ecology, modeling, northeast,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Habitat, Regional/Scaling, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, anthropogenic stress, coastal ecosystem, aquatic species vulnerability, biodiversity, environmental measurement, ecosystem assessment, meteorology, climatic influence, global change, New England, climate, habitat loss, anthropogenic, climate models, environmental stress, invasive species, ecological models, climate model, Global Climate Change, land use, regional anthropogenic stresses, atmospheric chemistry, stressor response model, ambient air pollution, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
http://www.marinesciences.uconn.edu/teamb/Pages/Team%20Benthos.htm Exit . This web site has a link to the current EPA-supported research project and will be periodically updated to include recent findings, etc.
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.