Grantee Research Project Results

2003 Progress Report: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species

EPA Grant Number: R830877
Title: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species
Investigators: Whitlatch, Robert B. , Osman, Richard W.
Institution: University of Connecticut
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2004
Project Amount: $564,430
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change

Objective:

We are using southern New England coastal habitats as model systems to address the interaction of climate change and anthropogenic stresses resulting from variability in land use patterns in response to recently introduced marine invasive species and how these species act to alter coastal ecosystems. The objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop a stressor-response model of these interactions for ecosystem managers to assess regional coastal environmental problems; and (2) use invasive species as “sentinels” of the interaction of climate change and environmental degradation. Our previous work indicates that: (1) warming of coastal waters is correlated with an increasing abundance of invasive marine species; and (2) lower biodiversity, which is characteristic of more stressed coastal habitats, appears to make these areas more susceptible to invasion. Using this information, we are experimentally testing these interactions over a range of coastal southern New England habitats to address such issues as: what is the significance of the interactions among multiple stressors (land use and climate change) and are the effects additive or nonadditive?

Progress Summary:

During Year 1 of the project, we accomplished the following principal tasks. First, to begin to explore and subsequently model relationships among coastal landscape features and the distribution of native and invasive fouling species, a geographic information system (GIS) is being developed. This GIS consists of various data layers that relate to terrestrial and aquatic factors that may influence such distributions. The GIS was constructed for the entire coast of Connecticut and eastern Rhode Island using ArcView GIS. GIS data layers were obtained from a variety of sources, including the State of Connecticut, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The data layers include land use/land cover, infrastructure, hydrology, coastal wetlands, bathymetry, nearshore habitats (tidal flats, shoals, etc.), dock and marina locations, and leachate and wastewater discharges. We are continuing to add to the GIS as relevant data are found or become available. The GIS is being used to extract and derive data for sampling locations where fouling communities are being sampled. These data will be analyzed in conjunction with species composition and abundance at the study sites using multivariate techniques. The results of these analyses will yield predictors that will be used to develop a GIS model to predict the probability of invasive occurrences, which subsequently will be tested.

Second, we conducted a broad-scale biological survey of 19 different coastal habitats in the eastern portion of Connecticut and western Rhode Island, with varying land use patterns, to assess the relative abundance and species composition of native and nonnative fouling species at each site. When possible, surveys at each habitat were conducted on natural (e.g., rocks) and man-made (marinas, pilings) substances. Preliminary multivariate analysis indicates there may be 4 different species groups among the 19 sampling locations. For example, one group generally represented more urbanized coastal habitats (e.g., Thames River), whereas another group tended to be associated more with marina habitats. Patterns of total species richness indicate that some groups generally have higher species numbers.

Future Activities:

We will couple a field and modeling component that delineates the impacts on shallow water habitats resulting from changing land use with an experimental field component that directly examines the interacting effects of increasing water temperatures and anthropogenic stresses on the rates of species introductions and the impacts on native communities. Field experiments will be set up to simulate predicted temperature changes, and the population and community responses of native and recently introduced species will be compared. Transplant experiments also will be done to determine the interactive effects of warming water and existing stresses on the degree to which native communities may be altered by the increased success of newly introduced species. The measurement and modeling of nutrient inputs as a function of land use and resultant changes in benthic communities, including the degree to which species introductions change the dynamics, will enable us to examine likely community and ecosystem changes in these coastal habitats as a function of climate change. The model will be designed to present easily understood scenarios to managers and planners. We are in the process of developing a stressor-response model which simulates these interactions and can be used by managers to discern which habitats are most vulnerable to the multiple stressors. Our overall approach is to use population/community models to couple the interacting effects of the more system-wide stress of climatic warming, with local stresses resulting from changing land use patterns and changes in the abundance of invasive species. Models of population/community effects are adaptable, can predict both large and small scale phenomena, and can be used by mangers of both local and regional systems. We will examine the uncertainties of the model predictions, how the model results can be extrapolated both spatially and temporally, and how the model can be tested and validated.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 38 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

global climate, marine, estuary, ecological effects, ecosystem, indicators, ecology, modeling, Northeast, New England, biodiversity, coastal landscape features, geographic information system, GIS, Connecticut, CT, Rhode Island, RI, terrestrial factors, aquatic factors, landuse patterns, multiple stressors,, RFA, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Air, Scientific Discipline, Ecological Risk Assessment, Regional/Scaling, Monitoring/Modeling, Air Pollution Effects, climate change, Habitat, Environmental Monitoring, habitat loss, invasive species, biodiversity, Global Climate Change, ecosystem assessment, climate model, coastal ecosystem, global change, atmospheric chemistry, ecological models, climate models, environmental measurement, climate variability, environmental stress, anthropogenic, aquatic species vulnerability, meteorology, land use, regional anthropogenic stresses, ambient air pollution, climatic influence, land management, stressor response model, anthropogenic stress, New England

Relevant Websites:

http://www.marinesciences.uconn.edu/teamb/Pages/Team%20Benthos.htm Exit

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

2004 Progress Report

2005 Progress Report

Final Report