Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species
EPA Grant Number: R830877Title: Stressor-Response Modeling of the Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Patterns on the Alteration of Coastal Marine Systems by Invasive Species
Investigators: Whitlatch, Robert B. , Osman, Richard W.
Institution: University of Connecticut
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2004 through May 31, 2005
Project Amount: $564,430
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
We are using southern New England coastal habitats as model systems to address the interaction of climate change and anthropogenic stresses resulting from variability in land-use patterns in the response of recent introduced marine invasive species and how these species act to alter coastal ecosystems.
The objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop a stressor-response model of these interactions for ecosystem managers to assess regional coastal environmental problems; and (2) use invasive species as “sentinels” of the interaction of climate change and environmental degradation. Our previous work indicates that warming of coastal waters is correlated with an increasing abundance of invasive marine species. Also, lower biodiversity, which is characteristic of more stressed coastal habitats, appears to make these areas more susceptible to invasion. Using this information, we experimentally are testing these interactions over a range of coastal southern New England habitats to address issues such as: What are the significant interactions among the multiple stressors (land use and climate change)? Are the effects additive or nonadditive?
Progress Summary:
During the first year of the project, we accomplished the following principal tasks. To begin to explore and subsequently model relationships among coastal landscape features and the distribution of native and invasive fouling species, a geographic information system (GIS) was developed. This GIS consists of various datalayers that relate to terrestrial and aquatic factors that may influence such distributions. The GIS was constructed for the entire coast of Connecticut and eastern Rhode Island and obtained from a variety of sources, including the State of Connecticut, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The datalayers include, for example, land use/land cover, infrastructure, hydrology, coastal wetlands, bathymetry, nearshore habitats (tidal flats, shoals, etc.), dock and marina locations, and leachate and wastewater discharges. We are continuing to add to the GIS as relevant data are found or become available. The GIS is being used to extract and derive data for sampling locations where fouling communities are being sampled. These data will be analyzed in conjunction with species composition and abundances at the study sites using multivariate techniques. The results of these analyses are designed to yield predictors that will be used to develop a GIS model to predict the probability of invasive occurrences, which will be subsequently tested. Also in the first year of the project, we conducted a broad-scale biological survey of 19 different coastal habitats in the eastern portion of Connecticut and western Rhode Island, with varying land-use patterns, to assess the relative abundance and species composition of native and nonnative fouling species at each of the sites. When possible, surveys at each habitat were conducted on natural (e.g., rocks) and human-made (marinas, pilings). Multivariate analysis indicated that appears to be 4 different species groups among the 19 sampling locations. One group is generally representative of more urbanized coastal habitats (e.g, Thames River), whereas another tended to be more associated with marina habitats. Patterns of total species richness indicate that more impacted sites generally have reduced species richness and a higher proportion of nonnative species.
During Year 2 of the project, a number of field experiments were deployed that were designed to examine the interactions of anthropogenic stressors and increasing water on the rates of species introductions and the impacts of these on native communities. Transplant experiments also were conducted to determine the interactive effects of warming water and existing stresses on the degree to which native communities may be altered by the increased success of newly introduced species. Preliminary results indicate that nonnative fouling species tend to grow much faster at sites receiving more anthropogenic stress and sites where land-use patterns are more forested. The net effects of this is that the nonnative species can more easily exclude resident species and lead to a reduction of local fouling species biodiversity. We also continued to develop a computer model that is designed to couple two-dimensional hydrodynamic conditions in coastal habitats to the transport of benthic invertebrate larvae. The specific goals were to determine: (1) if all source habitats make similar contributions to larval settlement patterns; (2) how planktonic larval duration has an effect on the pattern of settlement; and (3) how tidal flow patterns effect patterns of settlement. Results to date indicate that not all source habitats are equal and that model results are sensitive to planktonic larval duration.
Future Activities:
We will continue to couple a field and modeling component that delineates the impacts on shallow water habitats resulting from changing land use with an experimental field component that directly examines the interacting effects of increasing water temperatures and anthropogenic stresses on the rates of species introductions and the impacts of these on native communities. Additional field experiments will be deployed to simulate predicted temperature changes and the population and community responses of native and recently introduced species. Additional transplant experiments also will be deployed to determine the interactive effects of warming water and existing stresses on the degree to which native communities may be altered by the increased success of newly introduced species. The measurement and modeling of nutrient inputs, the placement of marinas, docks, and other alternations of the coastal zone will be simulated and tested using a combination of model simulations and field experimental studies. The model will be designed to present easily understood scenarios to coastal zone resource managers and planners.
We will continue to develop a stressor-response model that simulates these interactions and that can be used by managers to discern which habitats are most vulnerable to the multiple stressors. Our overall approach is to use population/community models to couple the interacting effects of the more system-wide stress of climatic warming with local stresses resulting from changing land-use patterns and changes in the abundance of invasive species. Models of population/community effects are adaptable, can predict both large- and small-scale phenomena, and can be used by mangers of both local and regional systems. We will examine the uncertainties of the model predictions, how the model results can be extrapolated both spatially and temporally, and how the model can be tested and validated.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 38 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
global climate, marine, estuary, ecological effects, ecosystem, indicators, ecology, modeling, northeast, anthropogenic stresses, habitats, species composition,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Regional/Scaling, Environmental Monitoring, Habitat, Ecological Risk Assessment, anthropogenic stress, coastal ecosystem, aquatic species vulnerability, biodiversity, environmental measurement, ecosystem assessment, meteorology, climatic influence, global change, New England, climate, habitat loss, anthropogenic, climate models, environmental stress, invasive species, ecological models, climate model, Global Climate Change, land use, regional anthropogenic stresses, atmospheric chemistry, stressor response model, ambient air pollution, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
http://www.marinesciences.uconn.edu/teamb/Pages/Team Benthos.htm Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.