Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
EPA Grant Number: R834280Title: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
Investigators: Bond, Tami C. , Smith, Steven J. , Lee, Bumsoo , Barkan, Chris , Ouyang, Yanfeng
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: November 1, 2009 through October 31, 2012 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Amount: $599,560
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
Integrate existing models to produce a global-regional-urban emission model of the international freight system; identify multiple impacts of freight handling decisions under a range of global economic scenarios; and identify robust decisions regarding the freight handling infrastructure under future uncertainty.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Outputs:
In this project, we employed a cascade of models, from a global macroeconomic model that simulates trade between regions, to models of national transportation networks and urban form, to models of trucks and locomotives operating on individual network segments. Two sets of linked models were created: Long-haul freight and its emissions within the United States capable of reflecting changes in economic activity by commodity, road and rail network characteristics, technology change, and oil price, and Urban delivery freight and its emissions, capable of responding to changes in economic activity by industrial sector, and to changes in urban development scenarios. In addition, global emissions from the trucking industry and other transportation were modeled using a vehicle fleet model connected to a macroeconomic model of growth.
The long-haul freight model downscaled global economic projections to employment and freight demand in 120 Freight Analysis Zones using a shift-share model, and thus predicted demand for freight shipments between all zones. A new market share model predicted truck-rail split and its dependence on oil price. Shipments were routed on present-day highway and rail networks considering congestion and delay. The predicted freight activity data was used in a vehicle fleet model to estimate annual growth in the new truck and rail fleet; along with estimated retirement rates, the resulting vehicle fleet by age and inception date predicts the penetration of emission standards. Emissions of traditional air pollutants (particulate matter, carbon monoxide, total hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides) from freight trucks and rail during 2010–2050 declined due to the implementation of emission standards.
Outcomes from the long-haul freight model include: (i) Understanding of, and capacity for further exploration of, the United States freight system by linking models. (ii) Relationships that can be used by other research, including modal-shift model. (iii) Data sets useful for other research, including: time series of freight activities by commodity, map of the continental United States with road and rail activity, suitable for spatially distributing emissions as inputs to atmospheric models. (iv) Excel software for exploring additional freight scenarios.
The urban freight model also used downscaled economic projections to estimate growth in employment. Urban development scenarios for future spatial distribution of jobs were constructed at the census tract level in 73 metropolitan areas, using a dynamic spatial model. Business as usual, polycentric, and compact development scenarios were modeled. Then, freight distribution among the job locations was modeled as a vehicle routing problem. These activity data were also used to drive a dynamic vehicle fleet model that estimated emissions.
Long-haul and urban emissions were projected from 2010 through 2050. Scenarios explore several possibilities: (1) economic uncertainty (rapid and low growth); (2) climate policy imposed on each of the rapid-growth and low-growth scenarios; (3) effect of highway congestion; (4) effect of compact development on urban delivery; (5) technology change to increase efficiency or eliminate emission “slippage.”
Outputs from developing the long-haul freight model include: (i) Understanding and capacity for further exploration and optimization, of the United States inter-regional freight system. (ii) Relationships that can be used by other research, including modal-shift model. (iii) Data sets useful for other research, including: time series of freight activities by commodity, projected locations of shipments, map of the continental United States with road and rail activity, suitable for spatially distributing emissions as inputs to atmospheric models. (iv) Excel software for exploring additional freight scenarios.
Outputs from the urban freight model include: (i) Understanding and capacity for further exploration and optimization, of urban delivery and transportation within the United States. (ii) Relationships that can be used by other research, including urban-development parameters. (iii) Future distribution of employment, suitable for spatially distributing urban emissions as inputs to urban air-quality models.
In summary, this project developed a model of emissions from the United States freight system under a variety of scenarios. The model and approach have three key features: first, they are comprehensive, representing emissions as a function of the economic environment, urban and transportation infrastructure, and technology choice. Second, generality is combined with specificity; while growth is modeled at the level of census tracts and highway links, the techniques used give projections for the entire United States. Finally, the linked models are flexible, so that new scenarios or policies can easily be investigated.
Outcomes:
Because the modeling approach described here is comprehensive, flexible, and both general and specific, it provides projections and allows exploration of the effect of policies under multiple economic and investment scenarios to investigate robustness. In the short term, this approach provides immediate ability to investigate additional scenarios, such as targeted investment or design of particular neighborhoods. Over the next decade, we believe that this “general+specific” approach sets a new standard for future emission projections. It complements and links directly to market-based optimization models, but contains enough detail on technology and infrastructure to identify specific actions.
Conclusions:
Technical conclusions of the project are: (1) Congestion on highways could greatly increase CO2 and other air pollutant emissions, by 13-19% in 2050, compared with a case without congestion. (2) A carbon tax would decrease air pollutant emissions below baseline projections by reducing some types of shipping (fossil fuels) and by shifting other shipping to more-efficient rail. This reduction is 4-6% from long-haul shipping by 2030, and 8-16% by 2050. (3) Compact urban development can reduce emissions from delivery trucks below baseline by 16-18% in 2030, and 22-23% in 2050. Although urban emissions are only 10% the magnitude of long-haul emissions, their effect on human health is approximately equal because they are emitted nearer where people work. (4) As vehicles get cleaner, emissions of traditional air pollutants are projected to decrease greatly. However, the possibility that high-emitting vehicles could contribute a large fraction of emissions becomes greater. Ensuring that all vehicles conform to durability standards could reduce emissions by a factor of two, compared to even a small amount of “slippage.” (5) By 2030, emission standards will have greatly cleaned up emissions of traditional air pollutants. Thus, climate impacts of the freight system will be primarily long-lived, rather than having a large short-lived component as they did in 2010.
The magnitudes of pollutant reduction below baseline that were projected in this project are insufficient to meet environmental goals, particularly with regard to greenhouse gas emissions. This finding suggests the need to explore more targeted policies that overcome some of the persistence in the United States freight system.
Journal Articles on this Report : 7 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 21 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 7 journal articles |
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Hwang T, Ouyang Y. Freight shipment modal split and its environmental impacts: an exploratory study. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2014;64(1):2-12. |
R834280 (2012) R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final) |
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Hwang T, Ouyang Y. Urban freight truck routing under stochastic congestion and emission considerations. Sustainability 2015;7(6):6610-6625. |
R834280 (2012) R834280 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
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Lee S, Lee B. The influence of urban form on GHG emissions in the U.S. household sector. Energy Policy 2014;68:534-549. |
R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
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Liu L, Hwang T, Lee S, Ouyang Y, Lee B, Smith SJ, Yan F, Daenzer K, Bond TC. Emission projections for long-haul freight trucks and rail in the United States through 2050. Environmental Science & Technology 2015;49(19):11569-11576. |
R834280 (Final) |
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Yan F, Winijkul E, Bond TC, Streets DG. Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions. Atmospheric Environment 2014;87:189-199. |
R834280 (2012) R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final) |
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Yan F, Bond TC, Streets DG. Effectiveness of mitigation measures in reducing future primary particulate matter emissions from on-road vehicle exhaust. Environmental Science & Technology 2014;48(24):14455-14463. |
R834280 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
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Yan F, Winijkul E, Streets DG, Lu Z, Bond TC, Zhang Y. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(11):5709-5733. |
R834280 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Particulate matter, ozone, emissions, ambient air, urban air quality, background air quality, global climate, railroad, trucking, urban form, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, environmental monitoringProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2013 Progress Report
- 2012 Progress Report
- 2011 Progress Report
- 2010 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
7 journal articles for this project