Grantee Research Project Results
2011 Progress Report: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
EPA Grant Number: R834280Title: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
Investigators: Bond, Tami C. , Smith, Steven J. , Lee, Bumsoo , Barkan, Chris , Ouyang, Yanfeng
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: November 1, 2009 through October 31, 2012 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2010 through October 31,2011
Project Amount: $599,560
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air , Climate Change
Objective:
We will integrate existing models to produce a global-regional-urban emission model of the international freight system; identify multiple impacts of freight handling decisions under a range of global economic scenarios; and identify robust decisions regarding the freight handling infrastructure under future uncertainty. Hypotheses involve: (1) dominant environmental impacts of freight handling; (2) dependence of modal shift solutions on prior investment; (3) impact of spatial distribution of employment activity centers on emissions; and (4) siting of intermodal terminals.
Progress Summary:
The progress of the three teams working on this project is described below.
Freight logistics group: A binomial logit model was developed to predict choice of truck versus rail shipping. This model draws inferences from four years of freight data available in the public domain and estimates the dependence on oil price. Developing the model required a detailed assessment of freight statistics. Determining the location of activity requires a network-loading model for truck and rail assignment, and preliminary selections of the network have been made.
Urban spatial structure group: In the first year of the project, we characterized the 79 largest U.S. metropolitan areas in terms of metropolitan level spatial structure, dispersion and polycentricity. A spatial autoregression model was developed to control for effects of neighboring census areas. The spatial model is being extended to accommodate serial dependency in addition to spatial dependency.
Technology and emissions group: Set up vehicle fleet model specific to United States; ran 200 Monte Carlo simulations for baseline case to estimate uncertainty caused by fleet dynamics.
Future Activities:
Projections of freight emissions and activity will occur on two scales: between regions (freight analysis zones) and within regions. The between-region projections will involve system-optimum network loading for each mode of transportation; the within-region projections will be done with network optimization parameters based on projected jobs distribution. The urban spatial structure group will also build future employment scenarios at these two levels. They will project employment at both levels, using a shift-share model and gross domestic product estimates from PNNL’s SGM. Then, the freight logistics group will use these scaled FAZs in modeling of the inter-zone transport. Predicted emissions of CO2 from freight activity will be compared with those of a macroeconomic model, SGM. Atmospheric impacts will be estimated by connecting emissions of air pollutants and concentrations using tagged chemical tracers in atmospheric models.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 21 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
exposure, particulate matter, ozone, emissions, ambient air, urban air quality, background air quality, global climate, railroad, trucking, RFA, Air, Atmosphere, Air Pollution Effects, climate change, environmental monitoringProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.