Grantee Research Project Results
2012 Progress Report: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
EPA Grant Number: R834280Title: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
Investigators: Bond, Tami C. , Smith, Steven J. , Lee, Bumsoo , Barkan, Chris , Ouyang, Yanfeng
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: November 1, 2009 through October 31, 2012 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2011 through October 31,2012
Project Amount: $599,560
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
We will integrate existing models to produce a global-regional-urban emission model of the international freight system; identify multiple impacts of freight handling decisions under a range of global economic scenarios; and identify robust decisions regarding the freight handling infrastructure under future uncertainty. Hypotheses involve: (1) dominant environmental impacts of freight handling; (2) dependence of modal shift solutions on prior investment; (3) impact of spatial distribution of employment activity centers on emissions; and (4) siting of intermodal terminals.
Progress Summary:
Three teams are working on this project.
Freight logistics group: Using future economic growth factors, we predicted the amount of freight generation and attraction in each geographical region in the United States for several commodity types. This freight is divided between truck and rail with a binomial market share model. Finally, the freight demand is assigned along the truck and rail networks considering congestion, subject to a user equilibrium principle for carrier route choices.
Urban spatial structure group: We estimated demand for freight transportation by combining a computable general equilibrium model for the United States with a modified shift-share model. We extrapolated industrial changes in each freight analysis zone to the future. Based on the results of employment projections, we estimated the demand for commodities using an input-output model framework. We also built future development scenarios in 79 metropolitan zones. Scenarios include business as usual, polycentric, and compact development.
Technology and emissions group: Connected vehicle fleet model for United States with freight activity projections, first comparing with actual fuel consumption for railroads, long-haul and short-haul trucks for present day.
Products: (1) Freight flow patterns for 2010-2050 between Freight Analysis Zones and estimated congestion in highway and railway networks can serve as input data to many air quality and emission models; (2) Census tract level employment and population projection for major metropolitan areas will be useful for other air-quality models. This data set is produced with a consistent method for all metropolitan areas, yet heterogeneous across the United States. There were five presentations at national meetings and three journal papers are in preparation.
Future Activities:
The Freight Logistics group will estimate spatial distribution of freight shipment activities in metropolitan areas, improve the railroad network in the traffic assignment, and develop an integrated decision support software. Urban Spatial Structure group will produce two alternative economic growth scenarios using the Phoenix model to explore future uncertainty in economic change. The Air Quality and Emissions group will predict emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases using a fleet model; compare predicted emissions of CO2 from freight activity with those of the macroeconomic model; and predict the impact of freight on air quality and climate.
Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 21 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 7 journal articles |
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Hwang T, Ouyang Y. Freight shipment modal split and its environmental impacts: an exploratory study. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2014;64(1):2-12. |
R834280 (2012) R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final) |
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Hwang T, Ouyang Y. Urban freight truck routing under stochastic congestion and emission considerations. Sustainability 2015;7(6):6610-6625. |
R834280 (2012) R834280 (Final) |
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Yan F, Winijkul E, Bond TC, Streets DG. Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions. Atmospheric Environment 2014;87:189-199. |
R834280 (2012) R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Exposure, particulate matter, ozone, emissions, ambient air, urban air quality, background air quality, global climate, railroad, trucking, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, environmental monitoringProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.