Grantee Research Project Results
2012 Progress Report: A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios
EPA Grant Number: R834196Title: A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios
Investigators: Wagener, Thorsten
Institution: Pennsylvania State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2012 (Extended to July 31, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 1, 2011 through July 31,2012
Project Amount: $239,782
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Watersheds , Water , Climate Change
Objective:
To provide probabilistic projections of indicators of watershed services for aquatic ecosystems and human uses in U.S. headwaters under climate change scenarios through: (1) characterizing changes to (freshwater flow and temperature dependent) indicators of watershed services under climate change scenarios in a probabilistic framework; (2) identifying main controls (and uncertainties) on these indicators; and (3) estimating resulting changes to watershed-scale ecosystem services for selected headwater basins in different U.S. regions.
Progress Summary:
Progress in this project beyond the last report has been as follows: (1) We tested using a data-based approach to classification for the understanding of environmental change impacts on hydrology. This work was supported by an additional model-based analysis to understand the controls on differences in the response of different catchments to the same change in boundary conditions (climate). We find that the combination of data-based and model-based approaches is required to gain insight. (2) The trading-space-for-time (TSFT) approach introduced by Singh et al. (2011) was connected to actual downscaled GCM projections of different emission scenarios.
We find that TSFT significantly reduces uncertainty in the impact projections, but that significant uncertainty remains due the variability across GCMs. We areinvestigating an alternative strategy termed scenario discovery to overcome this issue of large uncertainty while still enabling sensible support for decision making.
Future Activities:
Activities in the next project phase will focus on expanding the number of watersheds that we model with a detailed physically based strategy so that a wider range of climates and hydro-geophysical settings is represented and can be understood. We will add the modeling of stream water temperature. We also will finalize combining statistical downscaling including uncertainty with the previously introduced trading-space-for-time strategy. Contrast this approach with a scenario discovery strategy in which the possible (model) space is explored for parameter-input combinations that exceed critical output thresholds (e.g. excessive water temperatures). These locations can then be assessed regarding their likelihood.
Journal Articles on this Report : 9 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 38 publications | 14 publications in selected types | All 13 journal articles |
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Kelleher C, Wagener T. Ten guidelines for effective data visualization in scientific publications. Environmental Modelling & Software 2011;26(6):822-827. |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Kelleher C, Wagener T, Gooseff M, McGlynn B, McGuire K, Marshall L. Investigating controls on the thermal sensitivity of Pennsylvania streams. Hydrological Processes 2012;26(5):771-785. |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Kelleher C, Wagener T, McGlynn B, Ward AS, Gooseff MN, Payn RA. Identifiability of transient storage model parameters along a mountain stream. Water Resources Research 2013;49(9):5290-5306. |
R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Kollat JB, Reed PM, Wagener T. When are multiobjective calibration trade-offs in hydrologic models meaningful? Water Resources Research 2012;48(3):W03520 (19 pp.). |
R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Martin EH, Kelleher C, Wagener T. Has urbanization changed ecological streamflow characteristics in Maine (USA)? Hydrological Sciences Journal 2012;57(7):1337-1354. |
R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Ning L, Mann M, Crane R, Wagener T, Najjar R, Singh R. Probabilistic projections of anthropogenic climate change impacts on precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States. Journal of Climate 2012;25(15):5273-5291. |
R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Singh R, Wagener T, van Werkhoven K, Mann ME, Crane R. A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate – accounting for changing watershed behavior. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011;15(11):3591-3603. |
R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Singh R, van Werkhoven K, Wagener T. Hydrological impacts of climate change in gauged and ungauged watersheds of the Olifants basin: a trading-space-for-time approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2014;59(1):29-55. |
R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Wagener T, Montanari A. Convergence of approaches toward reducing uncertainty in predictions in ungauged basins. Water Resources Research 2011;47(6):W06301 (8 pp.). |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Regionalization, predictions in ungauged basins, uncertainty analysis, climate change, air pollution effects, atmosphere, watersheds;, RFA, Air, Atmosphere, Air Pollution Effects, climate changeRelevant Websites:
Hydrologic Systems Analysis Group | Penn State Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.