Grantee Research Project Results
2011 Progress Report: A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios
EPA Grant Number: R834196Title: A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios
Investigators: Wagener, Thorsten
Institution: Pennsylvania State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2012 (Extended to July 31, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 1, 2010 through July 31,2011
Project Amount: $239,782
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Watersheds , Water , Climate Change
Objective:
To provide probabilistic projections of indicators of watershed services for aquatic ecosystems and human uses in U.S. headwaters under climate change scenarios through: (1) characterizing changes to (freshwater flow and temperature dependent) indicators of watershed services under climate change scenarios in a probabilistic framework; (2) identifying main controls (and uncertainties) on these indicators; and (3) estimating the resulting changes to watershed-scale ecosystem services for selected headwater basins in different U.S. regions.
Progress Summary:
Progress in this project beyond the last report has been as follows: (1) A multi-objective analysis of several hundred U.S. watersheds has shown that the often-reported tradeoffs between different objective functions do exist in much fewer cases than previously thought. Many tradeoffs only exist when overly precise estimates of objective functions are considered. Where significant tradeoffs do exist, they indicate model structural problems. (2) A new strategy for downscaling climate change projections includes uncertainty. (3) Assessment of consistency in model controls on hydrological and ecological indicators across models and watersheds is performed using global sensitivity analysis.
Future Activities:
Activities for the next project phase focus on: (1) dynamic sensitivity analysis of complex spatially distributed watershed models to understand controls on hydrological and ecological indicators. (2) The comparative analysis of potential climate change impacts on watershed behavior in Pennsylvania in which we currently combine a new statistical downscaling strategy with a novel strategy for trading space for time to condition watershed models under potential future climate scenarios. Both approaches allow for the propagation of uncertainty into the hydrologic impact projections.
Journal Articles on this Report : 7 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 38 publications | 14 publications in selected types | All 13 journal articles |
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Kelleher C, Wagener T. Ten guidelines for effective data visualization in scientific publications. Environmental Modelling & Software 2011;26(6):822-827. |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Kelleher C, Wagener T, Gooseff M, McGlynn B, McGuire K, Marshall L. Investigating controls on the thermal sensitivity of Pennsylvania streams. Hydrological Processes 2012;26(5):771-785. |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Kollat JB, Reed PM, Wagener T. When are multiobjective calibration trade-offs in hydrologic models meaningful? Water Resources Research 2012;48(3):W03520 (19 pp.). |
R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Martin EH, Kelleher C, Wagener T. Has urbanization changed ecological streamflow characteristics in Maine (USA)? Hydrological Sciences Journal 2012;57(7):1337-1354. |
R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Singh R, Wagener T, van Werkhoven K, Mann ME, Crane R. A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate – accounting for changing watershed behavior. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011;15(11):3591-3603. |
R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Singh R, Archfield SA, Wagener T. Identifying dominant controls on hydrologic parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments—a comparative hydrology approach. Journal of Hydrology 2014;517:985-996. |
R834196 (2011) |
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Wagener T, Montanari A. Convergence of approaches toward reducing uncertainty in predictions in ungauged basins. Water Resources Research 2011;47(6):W06301 (8 pp.). |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Regionalization, predictions in ungauged basins, uncertainty analysis, RFA, climate change, air pollution effects, atmosphere, RFA, Air, Atmosphere, Air Pollution Effects, climate changeRelevant Websites:
Hydrologic Systems Analysis Group | Penn State Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.