Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios
EPA Grant Number: R834196Title: A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios
Investigators: Wagener, Thorsten
Institution: Pennsylvania State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2012 (Extended to July 31, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 1, 2009 through July 31,2010
Project Amount: $239,782
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Watersheds , Aquatic Ecosystems , Water
Objective:
To provide probabilistic projections of indicators of watershed services for aquatic ecosystems and human uses in US headwaters under climate change scenarios through: [1] Characterizing changes to (freshwater flow and temperature dependent) indicators of watershed services under climate change scenarios in a probabilistic framework. [2] Identifying main controls (and uncertainties) on these indicators. [3] Estimation of resulting changes to watershed-scale ecosystem services for selected headwater basins in different US regions.Progress Summary:
Progress in this project has thus far covered four main aspects: [1] A detailed empirical analysis of controls on stream temperature in Pennsylvania has been performed. Links between baseflow contributions, stream order and thermal sensitivity of rivers were identified. This work will provide a baseline for the subsequent modeling study on stream temperature. [2] A methodology for quantifying urbanization based on available population statistics has been developed and tested for the state of Maine. A comparison between differently urbanized parts of the state showed that urbanization impacts on streamflow, with respect to ecologically relevant streamflow indicators, have not yet reached detectable levels. The methodology is easily transferrable to other areas. [3] The similarity between the predictions in ungauged basins (PUB) and the predictions of change (PUC) problems can be explored by expanding the better-developed PUB methods. Trading-space-for-time is one very promising strategy that we are currently testing. Generally, the merging of local and regional information is a further advancement in modeling without calibration data that is currently under intensive study. [4] A review of the visualization literature showed that multiple pitfalls are common, which often leads to a misunderstanding or misrepresentation of scientific data and results. A review paper published in Environmental Modeling & Software provides visualization guidelines to help avoid these problems.Future Activities:
Current and future activities focus on three main areas: [1] The physically-based modeling of headwater basins with a particular emphasis on representing vegetation. The focus of this analysis is to understand variability of controls on the hydrologic response in space and time, including the transferability of this understanding to ungauged locations. [2] The finalization and further testing of a Bayesian framework for probabilistic predictions of climate change impacts on streamflow and subsequent water resources indices. [3] The comparative analysis of potential climate change impacts on watershed behavior in Montana and in Pennsylvania (with further testing across a wider range of headwater basins planned for later).Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 38 publications | 14 publications in selected types | All 13 journal articles |
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Kelleher C, Wagener T. Ten guidelines for effective data visualization in scientific publications. Environmental Modelling & Software 2011;26(6):822-827. |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Kelleher C, Wagener T, Gooseff M, McGlynn B, McGuire K, Marshall L. Investigating controls on the thermal sensitivity of Pennsylvania streams. Hydrological Processes 2012;26(5):771-785. |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Wagener T, Montanari A. Convergence of approaches toward reducing uncertainty in predictions in ungauged basins. Water Resources Research 2011;47(6):W06301 (8 pp.). |
R834196 (2010) R834196 (2011) R834196 (2012) R834196 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Regionalization, Predictions in Ungauged Basins, Uncertainty Analysis, Air, RFA, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere;, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, AtmosphereRelevant Websites:
Hydrologic Systems Analysis Group | Penn State Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.