Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Integrating Future Climate Change and Riparian Land-Use to Forecast the Effects of Stream Warming on Species Invasions and Their Impacts on Native Salmonids
EPA Grant Number: R833834Title: Integrating Future Climate Change and Riparian Land-Use to Forecast the Effects of Stream Warming on Species Invasions and Their Impacts on Native Salmonids
Investigators: Olden, Julian D. , Torgersen, Christian E. , Lawler, Joshua J.
Institution: University of Washington , Northwest Fisheries Science Center
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Amount: $587,209
RFA: Ecological Impacts from the Interactions of Climate Change, Land Use Change and Invasive Species: A Joint Research Solicitation - EPA, USDA (2007) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
Climate change, increasing agricultural and urban land-use, and invasive species threaten the functioning of freshwater ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Resource managers, scientists and policy makers are becoming increasingly cognizant that the future will witness simultaneous changes in these factors, yet we still lack the science and decision-support tools required to develop management strategies that are robust to future environmental change. Our project developed an analytical framework for linking climate change, riparian land-use, stream thermodynamics, and species invasions for the management and conservation of freshwater ecosystems. We demonstrate this framework for the John Day River, Oregon (a tributary of Columbia River), where human-induced stream warming is promoting the range expansion of invasive smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) into formerly uninhabitable reaches that contain critical migration, spawning, and rearing habitat for endangered Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our project addressed four primary objectives. First, we characterized and developed predictive models that forecast spatiotemporal patterns of riverine thermal regimes in response to future climate change and riparian land-use. Second, we forecasted species-specific responses (range contractions and invasions) to projected future thermal regimes. Third, we evaluated alternative scenarios of climate change to identify critical areas for riparian habitat restoration and protection to mediate future climate-induced warming of streams and species invasions. Fourth, we assess the interactive direct and indirect effects of project climate change and invasive smallmouth bass on juvenile Chinook salmon.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Climate change is forecasted to have profound effects on cold-water salmonid species in the Pacific Northwest, United States (Ruesch et al. 2012). Using novel spatially explicit temperature models, we estimate end-of-century declines of 69–95%, 51–87%, and 86–100% in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), respectively, in the John Day River Basin, Oregon. Conservation and restoration–based management action, including stream and riparian restoration, may help mitigate the loss of thermally suitable habitat for salmonids. For instance, throughout the Pacific Northwest, the loss of riparian vegetation is responsible for elevated water temperatures and efforts to reestablish riparian vegetation for salmon conservation continue to be implemented. Reducing grazing of cattle in riparian areas would allow woody riparian vegetation to recover, thereby providing shade-related stream cooling. Decreasing water withdrawals for irrigation could increase the volume of habitat, potentially lowering stream temperature and improving connectivity by providing access to upstream habitat that was previously fragmented in summer months.
Smallmouth bass have been introduced over the past century throughout Pacific Northwest waters to promote recreational fisheries, and today represent a contentious management and policy challenge given the varied and often conflicting human interests in this species (Carey et al. 2011, 2012). As a popular sport fish, smallmouth bass make up a substantial percentage of the recreational freshwater fishery in western U.S. streams. High numbers of anglers targeting smallmouth bass result in millions of angler fishing days per year and a large contribution to local economies. The high monetary value of the recreational fishery and the lobbying power of the very popular bass-angling clubs have led resource managers to focus on maintaining, if not promoting, the bass fishery. While a desired sportfish, smallmouth bass may also negatively affect native fishes. Of greatest concern is predation on threatened and endangered Pacific salmon; however, the current level of knowledge is inadequate to make informed management decisions for smallmouth bass. Management options for smallmouth bass are complicated further because fisheries agencies are simultaneously charged with enhancing fishing opportunities and controlling predators of threatened and endangered salmon. To advance conservation science, there is a need to determine the utility of different management approaches, and testing options in key areas of overlap between smallmouth bass and salmon is suggested.
Smallmouth bass populations in Pacific Northwest streams have greatly expanded from their initial introduction sites and now seasonally occupy upstream areas where endangered salmonids migrate, spawn and rear (Lawrence et al. 2012). By combining field observation with statistical models we revealed that bass seasonally occupy up to a quarter (22%) of the length of the North Fork of the John Day River where subyearling Chinook salmon occur, and the primary period of sympatry between these species was in the early summer and not during peak water temperatures in late summer. Where these species co-occurred, bass occupied 60-76% of channel units used by subyearling Chinook salmon in the early summer and 28-46% of the channel units they occupied in the late summer. Because these rearing salmon were well below the gape limitation of bass, this overlap could result in either direct predation or sublethal effects of bass on subyearling Chinook salmon. The upstream extent of bass increased 10 to 23 km (2009 and 2010, respectively) as stream temperatures seasonally warmed, but subyearling Chinook salmon were also found farther upstream during this time. Statistical models suggest that bass were selecting habitat based on antecedent thermal history at a broad scale, and if satisfactory temperature conditions were met, mesoscale habitat features (i.e. channel depth, stream gradient) played an additional role in determining bass abundance. The overriding influence of water temperature on smallmouth bass distribution suggests that managers may be able limit future upstream range expansions of bass into salmon rearing habitat by concentrating on restoration activities that mitigate climate or land-use related stream warming. These management activities could be prioritized to capitalize on survival bottlenecks in the life-history of bass and spatially focused on landscape knick points such as high-gradient discontinuities to discourage further upstream movements of bass. Managers could also establish target temperature criteria to prevent over-winter survival of young-of-the-year bass in salmon rearing areas, much like the current EPA water temperatures standards above which salmonids are physiologically and competitively disadvantaged.
Climate-induced stream warming by the middle and end of this century will allow non-native smallmouth bass to occupy an increasingly large portion of habitat within the John Day River basin, and subyearling Chinook salmon rearing habitat will be reduced (Lawrence et al, in press). We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. In summary, climate-induced stream temperature warming and land-use management practices are likely to enable range expansions of predatory bass farther into salmon rearing grounds, potentially adding more stress on an already highly threatened group of cold-water fishes.
Juvenile Chinook salmon display prey naivety in response to invasive smallmouth bass, thus increasing their vulnerability to predation (Kuehne and Olden 2012). We tested whether juvenile Chinook salmon were less able to recognize a non-native than a native predator, by investigating behavioral responses to the chemical cues of invasive smallmouth bass and native northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis) in both laboratory and field experiments. Laboratory results demonstrated strong innate antipredator responses of individual juvenile Chinook salmon to northern pikeminnow; fish spent 70% of time motionless and exhibited 100% greater panic response than in controls. By contrast, antipredator responses to the chemical cues of smallmouth bass did not differ from controls. In field trials, responses to northern pikeminnow odor resulted in increased flight or absence, reductions in swimming and foraging, and increased time spent near the substratum, compared to smallmouth bass odor. Given that survival of juvenile fish is facilitated by predator recognition, our results support the hypothesis that naivety may be an important factor in determining the effect of non-native predators on prey populations. Efforts to manage the effect of native and non-native predators may benefit by considering complex behavioral interactions, such as these at the individual and group levels.
Interactive effects of stream warming and invasive smallmouth bass threaten juvenile Chinook salmon (Kuehne et al. 2012). We tested the separate and interactive effects of water temperature and predation by non-native smallmouth bass on the lethal (mortality) and sublethal (behavior, physiology, and growth) effects for juvenile Chinook salmon in semi-natural stream channel experiments. Over 48-hour trials there was no difference in direct predation with warmer temperatures, but significant interactive effects on sublethal responses of juvenile salmon. Warmer temperatures resulted in significantly stronger and more variable antipredator responses (surface shoaling and swimming activity), while physiological indicators (plasma glucose, plasma cortisol) suggested suppression of physiological mechanisms in response to the combined stressors. These patterns corresponded with additive negative growth in predation, temperature, and combined treatments. Our results suggest that chronic increases in temperature may not increase direct predation over short periods, but can result in significant sublethal costs with negative implications for long-term development, disease resistance, and subsequent size-selective mortality of Pacific salmon.
Conclusions:
Adaptation strategies that involve riparian vegetation restoration to reduce stream warming may offset climate-induced losses in thermally suitable Chinook salmon rearing habitat and may reduce the expansion of invasive smallmouth bass into upstream stream habitats. Under some climate change scenarios, riparian restoration will likely be the only way to prevent extirpation of spring Chinook salmon. This work emphasizes the importance of using low-risk adaptation strategies that are robust to the uncertainties of future climate regimes - that is, they benefit the ecosystem even if the exact magnitude of warming is unknown. In stream systems, riparian restoration provides one such low-risk adaptation strategy because riparian vegetation also provides coarse-woody habitat and terrestrial food subsidies to streams, and retains sediment, stabilizes banks, and reduces erosion. Taken together, riparian vegetation restoration provides a viable management approach to ameliorate some of the water temperature increases predicted due to climate warming, thus providing a strategy to maintain salmon rearing habitat and maintain bass from expanding their range upstream. Restoration can provide this dual benefit and spatially prioritized restoration will result in a greater return-on-investment in terms of reducing bass abundance while increasing thermally suitable habitat for rearing Chinook salmon in the face of climate change.
Journal Articles on this Report : 28 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 38 publications | 28 publications in selected types | All 28 journal articles |
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Carey MP, Sanderson BL, Friesen TA, Barnas KA, Olden JD. Smallmouth bass in the Pacific Northwest:a threat to native species; a benefit for anglers. Reviews in Fisheries Science 2011;19(3):305-315. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Carey MP, Sanderson BL, Barnas KA, Olden JD. Native invaders--challenges for science, management, policy, and society. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2012;10(7):373-381. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Cucherousset J, Olden JD. Ecological impacts of nonnative freshwater fishes. Fisheries 2011;36(5):215-230. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
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Eros T, Olden JD, Schick RS, Schmera D, Fortin M-J. Characterizing connectivity relationships in freshwaters using patch-based graphs. Landscape Ecology 2012;27(2):303-317. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
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Gao Y, Vogel RM, Kroll CN, Poff NL, Olden JD. Development of representative indicators of hydrologic alteration. Journal of Hydrology 2009;374(1-2):136-147. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) X3832386 (Final) |
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Konrad CP, Olden JD, Lytle DA, Melis TS, Schmidt JC, Bray EN, Freeman MC, Gido KB, Hemphill NP, Kennard MJ, McMullen LE, Mims MC, Pyron M, Robinson CT, Williams JG. Large-scale flow experiments for managing river systems. BioScience 2011;61(12):948-959. |
R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Kuehne LM, Olden JD. Prey naivety in the behavioural responses of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to an invasive predator. Freshwater Biology 2012;57(6):1126-1137. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Kuehne LM, Olden JD, Duda JJ. Costs of living for juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an increasingly warming and invaded world. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2012;69(10):1621-1630. |
R833834 (2011) R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
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Larson ER, Olden JD, Usio N. Decoupled conservatism of Grinnellian and Eltonian niches in an invasive arthropod. Ecosphere 2010;1(6):16 (13 pp.). |
R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Lawler JJ, Olden JD. Reframing the debate over assisted colonization. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2011;9(10):569-574. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Lawler JJ, Ruesch AS, Olden JD, McRae BH. Projected climate-driven faunal movement routes. Ecology Letters 2013;16(8):1014-1022. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Lawrence DJ, Larson ER, Liermann CAR, Mims MC, Pool TK, Olden JD. National parks as protected areas for US freshwater fish diversity. Conservation Letters 2011;4(5):364-371. |
R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Lawrence DJ, Olden JD, Torgersen CE. Spatiotemporal patterns and habitat associations of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) invading salmon-rearing habitat. Freshwater Biology 2012;57(9):1929-1946. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Lawrence DJ, Stewart-Koster B, Olden JD, Ruesch AS, Torgersen CE, Lawler JJ, Butcher DP, Crown JK. The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a nonnative predator on stream-rearing salmon. Ecological Applications 2014;24(4):895-912. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Lawrence DJ, Beauchamp DA, Olden JD. Life-stage-specific physiology defines invasion extent of a riverine fish. Journal of Animal Ecology 2015;84(3):879-888. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Mims MC, Olden JD. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes. Ecology 2012;93(1):35-45. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Mims MC, Olden JD. Fish assemblages respond to altered flow regimes via ecological filtering of life history strategies. Freshwater Biology 2013;58(1):50-62. |
R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Olden JD, Kennard MK, Leprieur F, Tedesco PA, Winemiller KO, Garcia-Berthou E. Conservation biogeography of freshwater fishes:recent progress and future challenges. Diversity and Distributions 2010;16(3):496-513. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Olden JD, Kennard MK, Lawler JJ, Poff NL. Challenges and opportunities in implementing managed relocation for conservation of freshwater species. Conservation Biology 2011;25(1):40-47. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) R833833 (Final) |
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Olden JD, Vander Zanden MJ, Johnson PT. Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to invasive rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus). Ecological Applications 2011;21(7):2587-2599. |
R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Olden JD, Kennard MJ, Pusey BJ. A framework for hydrologic classification with a review of methodologies and applications in ecohydrology. Ecohydrology 2012;5(4):503-518. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Rubenson E, Lawrence D, Olden J. Threats to Rearing Juvenile Chinook Salmon from Nonnative Smallmouth Bass Inferred from Stable Isotope and Fatty Acid Biomarkers. TRANSACTIONS OF THE AMERICAN FISHERIES SOCIETY 2020;149(3):350-363. |
R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Ruesch AS, Torgersen CE, Lawler JJ, Olden JD, Peterson EE, Volk CJ, Lawrence DJ. Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River Network, Oregon, U.S.A. Conservation Biology 2012;26(5):873-882. |
R833834 (2011) R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
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Thomsen MS, Olden JD, Wernberg T, Griffin JN, Silliman BR. A broad framework to organize and compare ecological invasion impacts. Environmental Research 2011;111(7):899-908. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Twardochleb LA, Olden JD, Larson ER. A global meta-analysis of the ecological impacts of nonnative crayfish. Freshwater Science 2013;32(4):1367-1382. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Twardochleb LA, Olden JD. Human development modifies the functional composition of lake littoral invertebrate communities. Hydrobiologia 2016;775(1):167-184. |
R833834 (Final) |
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Twardochleb LA, Olden JD. Non-native Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) supports consumers in urban lake food webs. Ecosphere 2016;7(5):e01293. |
R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Wenger SJ, Olden JD. Assessing transferability of ecological models:an underappreciated aspect of statistical validation. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2012;3(2):260-267. |
R833834 (2012) R833834 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Aquatic Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, socioeconomics, climate models, ecosystem indicators, aquatic ecosystems, environmental stress, coastal ecosystems, global climate models, invasive species, ecological models, climate model, ecosystem stress, land and water resources, Global Climate Change, land use, atmospheric chemistry, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
The Olden Research Lab, School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences at the University of Washington Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2012 Progress Report
- 2011 Progress Report
- 2010 Progress Report
- 2009 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
28 journal articles for this project