Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Technology Change on Future Air Quality in the Upper Midwestern United States
EPA Grant Number: R831840Title: Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Technology Change on Future Air Quality in the Upper Midwestern United States
Investigators: Stone, Brian J , Holloway, Tracey
Institution: University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2007 (Extended to December 31, 2008)
Project Amount: $678,685
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The main objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that “smart growth” land use strategies can significantly improve regional air quality throughout the upper Midwestern U.S. over the period of 50 years. To investigate this question, we developed a fully integrated land use, vehicle travel, and air quality modeling framework to: 1) estimate vehicle miles of travel (VMT) as a function of changes in population density, employment rates, income, and vehicle ownership; 2) estimate mobile source emissions of NOx, VOC, PM2.5, CO, and CO2 as a function of changing land use patterns (as reflected in VMT), hybrid vehicle technology dissemination, and regional climate; 3) model regional concentrations of criteria pollutants as a function of regional land use, hybrid technology, and energy production scenarios; and 4) account for the effects of continental and global scale pollutant transport on NOx, VOC, PM2.5, and CO chemistry for the target years 2025 and 2050. This work integrated publicly available land use, travel behavior, and air quality information for the upper Midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin.Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
In general, our findings support the development of air quality and climate change management programs designed to both continue the dissemination of advanced vehicle technologies and promote smart growth urban development patterns to concentrate new population growth in urban centers. Specific findings of greatest significance include the following: 1) when accounting for projected population growth and the phase-in of Tier II emissions requirements, 2050 MSA tailpipe emissions of CO, NOx, PM, and VOC are projected to decrease relative to 2000 levels under the business as usual, smart growth and fleet hybridization scenarios, while emissions of CO2 are projected to increase relative to 2000 levels; 2) the elasticity of vehicle travel and emissions relative to population density was found to average -0.30, indicating a doubling of population density in the median MSA would reduce vehicle travel and tailpipe emissions by an average of 30%; 3) increasing density in urban zones was found to be more than twice as effective in reducing vehicle travel and emissions as increasing density in suburban zones; 4) technology changes, such as increased penetration of hybrid vehicles, would lower emissions throughout an urban area, reducing PM2.5 in all areas, but potentially increasing ground-level O3 in VOC-limited urban environments by reducing NOx titration; 5) densification strategies – while lowering overall emissions across an MSA - tend to increase emissions in urban areas and lower emissions in suburban and rural areas, which in turn leads to differing air quality benefits/penalties on small spatial scales.Conclusions:
These findings suggest several important policy directions for future air quality and climate change management. An overarching conclusion of this work concerns the need for an integration of technological and land use strategies to achieve long term air quality planning goals. Our findings suggest, for example, that both full fleet hybridization and the adoption of smart growth planning policies would be required to reduce mobile source CO2 emissions to levels approaching 1990 emissions or less, as required under the internationally recognized targets of the Kyoto Protocol. Conclusions pertaining to the air quality results suggest that both technology and smart growth urban planning offer powerful mechanisms to reduce emissions of criteria air pollutants and precursors. However, to ensure that control strategies achieve targets, especially compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), air quality managers need to take careful consideration of differences between rural, suburban, and urban chemical environments. It is well known that urban areas are often VOC-limited, such that decreases in NOx emissions may paradoxically increase urban O3. Indeed, our model simulations suggest that while reductions in O3 vehicle precursors associated with technology and/or land use planning effectively reduce O3 on a region-wide basis, these strategies may actually increase O3 in urban centers. Ambient PM responds to emissions changes in a more intuitive manner, decreasing over the urban and regional areas where emissions have been reduced, and increasing slightly in the urban areas where densification leads to greater localized precursor emissions. These potentially adverse impacts of localized pollution increases must be weighed against the large-scale reductions in CO2 and air pollutant emissions, and may be offset by additional strategies not explicitly included in our study (reducing urban heat islands, increasing public transportation in urban areas, etc.).
Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 25 publications | 8 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Grabow ML, Spak SN, Holloway T, Stone B, Mednick AC, Patz JA. Air quality and exercise-related health benefits from reduced car travel in the Midwestern United States. Environmental Health Perspectives 2012;120(1):68-76. |
R831840 (Final) R832750 (2007) R832750 (Final) |
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Holloway T, Spak SN, Barker D, Bretl M, Moberg C, Hayhoe K, Van Dorn J, Wuebbles D. Change in ozone air pollution over Chicago associated with global climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 2008;113(D22):D22306 (14 pp.). |
R831840 (Final) R832750 (2007) |
Exit Exit |
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Holloway T, Voigt C, Morton J, Spak SN, Rutter AP, Schauer JJ. An assessment of atmospheric mercury in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model at an urban site and a rural site in the Great Lakes Region of North America. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2012;12(15):7117-7133. |
R831840 (Final) R833375 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Spak SN, Holloway T. Seasonality of speciated aerosol transport over the Great Lakes region. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 2009;114(D8):D08302 (18 pp.). |
R831840 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Stone Jr. B, Mednick AC, Holloway T, Spak SN. Is compact growth good for air quality? Journal of the American Planning Association 2007;73(4):404-418. |
R831840 (2007) R831840 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Stone Jr. B, Mednick AC, Holloway T, Spak SN. Mobile source CO2 mitigation through smart growth development and vehicle fleet hybridization. Environmental Science & Technology 2009;43(6):1704-1710. |
R831840 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Ozone, transportation, urban planning, environmental policy, Midwest, Air, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Air Quality, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, Environmental Chemistry, Ecology and Ecosystems, Environmental Monitoring, Urban and Regional Planning, mobile sources, atmospheric pollutant loads, automotive exhaust, human activities, engine exhaust, predicting ecological response, community structure, Global Climate Change, ozone, regional emissions model, ozone concentrations, air quality models, infrastructure systems, modeling regional scale ozone, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, climate variability, automotive emissions, traffic patterns, mobile source emissions, green house gas concentrations, modeling, ambient air pollution, motor vehicle emissions, ecosystem models, global warming, traffic
, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Air Quality, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, mobile sources, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Urban and Regional Planning, Atmosphere, engine exhaust, modeling regional scale ozone, traffic, ecosystem models, infrastructure systems, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, human activities, motor vehicle emissions, air quality models, automotive emissions, ozone, traffic patterns, automotive exhaust, green house gas concentrations, modeling, mobile source emissions, atmospheric pollutant loads, regional emissions model, tropospheric ozone, global warming, predicting ecological response, ambient air pollution, climate variability, community structure, Global Climate Change
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Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.