Grantee Research Project Results
2006 Progress Report: Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Technology Change on Future Air Quality in the Upper Midwestern United States
EPA Grant Number: R831840Title: Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Technology Change on Future Air Quality in the Upper Midwestern United States
Investigators: Stone, Brian J , Holloway, Tracey
Institution: University of Wisconsin - Madison , Georgia Institute of Technology
Current Institution: University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2007 (Extended to December 31, 2008)
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2006 through December 31, 2007
Project Amount: $678,685
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that “smart growth” land use strategies can improve regional air quality throughout the upper Midwestern United States over the period of 25 to 50 years. To investigate this question, we will develop a fully integrated land use, vehicle travel, and air quality modeling framework to: (1) estimate vehicle trips and miles of travel (VMT) as a function of changes in population density, employment rates, income, and vehicle ownership; (2) estimate mobile source emissions as a function of changing land use patterns (as reflected in VMT), hybrid vehicle technology dissemination, and regional climate; (3) model regional O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as a function of regional land use, hybrid technology, and energy production scenarios; and (4) account for the effects of continental and global scale pollutant transport on O3 and PM2.5 chemistry for the future target years of 2025 and 2050.
Progress Summary:
Four major project milestones have been reached during this reporting period. These include: (1) estimation of total vehicle miles of travel at the census tract level for the future time periods of 2025 and 2050; (2) estimation of total vehicle emissions of CO, VOC, NOx, and PM2.5 at the census tract level for the future time periods of 2025 and 2050; (3) simulation and evaluation of CMAQ for 2001/2002 conditions—these results form the basis for comparing with PLUTO emissions for current and future years; and (4) completion of a statistical analysis of regional meteorology and PM2.5 measurements—these results will inform analysis of PLUTO modeling work, in which we will quantify the sensitivity of air quality to changes in emissions, chemistry, and climate.
The results of this phase of work suggest that a transition to more compact development patterns in large cities of the upper Midwest under the smart growth (SG) scenario would reduce daily household vehicle miles of travel by an average of 15.1% for new residents and by an average of 6.1% for metropolitan populations as a whole relative to a business as usual development (BAU) scenario by 2050. The benefits of smart growth for vehicle emissions, on average, were found to be marginally lower than those estimated for vehicle miles of travel. Average reductions vary by pollutant, with the SG scenario leading to a reduction in PM2.5 of 6.1%, and a reduction in NOx, CO, and VOC of 5.8%, 5.3%, and 4.8%, respectively. In addition, our findings show that increasing density within urban zones is more than twice as effective in reducing vehicle travel and emissions as increasing density within suburban zones, suggesting that urban planning strategies designed to direct new growth to the most intensely developed zones may be most effective in reducing total regional vehicle travel and emissions.
It is important to note that, at this stage in the project, we have not yet modeled the influence of these vehicle travel and emission trends on regional O3 or PM2.5 concentrations.
Additional results from this year of the project include the following:
- The 2001 annual simulation with CMAQ v 4.3 over-predicts PM2.5 and its primary constituents (including NO3, SO4, and carbonaceous aerosols) at urban and remote sites throughout the upper Midwest study region. Fractional bias for total PM2.5 mass is slightly higher at urban sites than remote sites (36% vs. 27%);
- Evaluation for O3 and PM2.5 (including individual species) is underway for CMAQ v 4.6 with the CB05 chemical mechanism;
- Correlations between regional-scale meteorology and observed PM concentrations at a range of sites in the upper Midwest suggest that regional weather accounts for 4-51% of variability in surface PM concentrations (depends on site, and PM10 vs. PM2.5).
Future Activities:
Five major project tasks are planned for the next year of the study. These include: (1) develop hybrid vehicle dissemination estimates for the future time periods of 2025 and 2050; (2) model the influence of variable hybrid vehicle dissemination rates on future time period vehicle emissions of CO, VOC, NOx, and PM2.5; (3) model the influence of projected changes in regional climate on vehicle emission rates and total tract-level vehicle emissions; (4) assess the influence of alternative land development and technology change scenarios on O3 and PM2.5 formation throughout study region; and (5) assess the role of local versus imported pollutants in O3 and PM2.5 formation throughout study region.
No changes in the major project milestones outlined in the project proposal are anticipated.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 25 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
air pollution effects, air quality, atmosphere, ecological risk assessment, ecology and ecosystems, environmental chemistry, environmental monitoring, urban and regional planning, climate change, mobile sources, emissions inventory modeling system, global climate change, air quality models, ambient air pollution, atmospheric pollutant loads, automotive emissions, automotive exhaust, climate variability, community structure, ecosystem models, engine exhaust, global warming, green house gas concentrations, human activities, infrastructure systems, mobile source emissions, modeling, modeling regional scale ozone, motor vehicle emissions, ozone, ozone concentrations, predicting ecological response, regional emissions model, traffic, traffic patterns,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Air Quality, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, mobile sources, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, Urban and Regional Planning, engine exhaust, modeling regional scale ozone, traffic, ecosystem models, infrastructure systems, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, human activities, motor vehicle emissions, air quality models, automotive emissions, ozone, traffic patterns, automotive exhaust, green house gas concentrations, modeling, mobile source emissions, atmospheric pollutant loads, regional emissions model, tropospheric ozone, global warming, predicting ecological response, ambient air pollution, climate variability, community structure, Global Climate ChangeRelevant Websites:
http://www.coa.gatech.edu/~stone/Pluto.htm Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.