Grantee Research Project Results
2007 Progress Report: Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Technology Change on Future Air Quality in the Upper Midwestern United States
EPA Grant Number: R831840Title: Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Technology Change on Future Air Quality in the Upper Midwestern United States
Investigators: Stone, Brian J , Holloway, Tracey
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology
Current Institution: University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2007 (Extended to December 31, 2008)
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2007 through December 31, 2008
Project Amount: $678,685
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that “smart growth” land use strategies can improve regional air quality throughout the upper Midwestern U.S. over the period of 25 to 50 years. To investigate this question, we will develop a fully integrated land use, vehicle travel, and air quality modeling framework to: 1) estimate vehicle trips and miles of travel (VMT) as a function of changes in population density, employment rates, income, and vehicle ownership; 2) estimate mobile source emissions as a function of changing land use patterns (as reflected in VMT), hybrid vehicle technology dissemination, and regional climate; 3) model regional O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as a function of regional land use, hybrid technology, and energy production scenarios; and 4) account for the effects of continental and global scale pollutant transport on O3 and PM2.5 chemistry for the future target years of 2025 and 2050.
Progress Summary:
Four major project milestones have been reached during this reporting period. These include: 1) modeling of four population change scenarios for the future time periods of 2025 and 2050, including a business as usual, moderate density change, high density change, and hybrid vehicle technology scenarios; 2) estimation of total vehicle emissions of CO, VOC, NOx, and PM2.5 at the census tract level for each scenario; 3) completed analysis of CMAQ for 2001/2002 conditions—these results form the basis for comparing with PLUTO emissions for current and future years [in preparation for submission to JGR-Atmospheres]; and 4) completion of initial PLUTO sensitivity studies at 36 km x 36 km horizontal resolution.
The results of this phase of work suggest that a transition to more compact development patterns in large cities of the upper Midwest under the moderate density scenario would reduce daily household vehicle miles of travel at the median by 6% for metropolitan populations as a whole relative to a business as usual development (BAU) scenario by 2050. Under the high density growth scenario, the median reduction in VMT relative to the business as usual scenario was found to be 9%. The benefits of compact growth for vehicle emissions, on average, were found to be marginally lower than those estimated for vehicle miles of travel. In addition, our findings show that increasing density within increasing density within suburban zones, suggesting that urban planning strategies designed to direct new growth to the most intensely developed zones may be most effective in reducing total regional vehicle travel and emissions.
Additional results from this year of the project include the following:
- CMAQ performs very well over our study region for O3, PM2.5, and all aerosol species except for crustal material (too high), organic mass (too low) and coarse matter (too low). Characterizations based the mean bias error for each species as compared with EPA criteria for performance of regional aerosol simulations.
- Seasonal variation of the boundary layer over lake and land regions strongly affecting the mixing of aerosols species across the region, and export to the free troposphere.
- Initial simulations of PLUTO emissions inventories suggest that 36 km x 36 km model resolution is too coarse to adequately inform the analysis of regional growth scenarios. New meteorology from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is under development for 12 km x 12 km simulations.
Future Activities:
Five major project tasks are planned for the final year of the study. These include: 1) derive estimates of carbon dioxide emissions associated with each of the four population / technology change scenarios; 2) streamline the population change and vehicle travel estimation framework for integration into an online planning tool; 3) complete simulations of change in ambient O3 and aerosol species associated with PLUTO growth and technology assumptions; 4) compare the change in urban and regional air quality associated with changes in transportation patterns, technology, and global climate forcing 5) assess the role of local versus imported pollutants in O3 and PM2.5 formation throughout study region.
No changes in the major project milestones outlined in the project proposal are anticipated.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 25 publications | 8 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Stone Jr. B, Mednick AC, Holloway T, Spak SN. Is compact growth good for air quality? Journal of the American Planning Association 2007;73(4):404-418. |
R831840 (2007) R831840 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
air pollution effects, air quality, atmosphere, ecological risk assessment, ecology and ecosystems, environmental chemistry, environmental monitoring, urban and regional planning, climate change, mobile sources, emissions inventory modeling system, global climate change, air quality models, ambient air pollution, atmospheric pollutant loads, automotive emissions, automotive exhaust, climate variability, community structure, ecosystem models, engine exhaust, global warming, green house gas concentrations, human activities, infrastructure systems, mobile source emissions, modeling, modeling regional scale ozone, motor vehicle emissions, ozone, ozone concentrations, predicting ecological response, regional emissions model, traffic, traffic patterns,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Air Quality, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, mobile sources, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Urban and Regional Planning, Atmosphere, engine exhaust, modeling regional scale ozone, traffic, ecosystem models, infrastructure systems, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, human activities, motor vehicle emissions, air quality models, automotive emissions, ozone, traffic patterns, automotive exhaust, green house gas concentrations, modeling, mobile source emissions, atmospheric pollutant loads, regional emissions model, tropospheric ozone, global warming, predicting ecological response, ambient air pollution, climate variability, community structure, Global Climate ChangeRelevant Websites:
http://www.coa.gatech.edu/~stone/Pluto.htm Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.