Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois
EPA Grant Number: R827451Title: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois
Investigators: Herricks, Edwin E. , Orland, Brian A , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Eheart, J. Wayland
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002
Project Amount: $867,595
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The overall objective of this research project was to complete an integrated assessment of multiple-sector impacts produced by predicted changes in climate on a Midwestern watershed. The impact assessment focused on locations in the Mackinaw River watershed in Illinois. The research used historical data, models, standard, and innovative analysis tools in this process and was guided by early stakeholder input. The specific objectives of this research project were to: (1) develop sector-specific responses to climate change; (2) identify relationships between/among sectors at each site and among all sites; (3) apply the impact-analysis paradigm to identify and quantify local impacts produced by climate change; (4) identify mechanisms that produce an adaptive response to climate change while developing sector/system resilience to climate-change impact; and (5) integrate project results with a Web-based decision support interface available at the University of Illinois.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
This research project was divided into three phases. Each phase addressed separate work activities, but the phases were not sequential; rather, they were interconnected and interactive throughout the research project. Phase 1 activities identified climate change phenomena for selected locations in the Mackinaw River watershed, completed a sector-by-sector analysis of expected responses to climate variability and change, and defined the expected response spectra for each element and elements aggregated within and across sectors. Phase 2 identified the local impact of climate change and involved assessments for socioeconomic, environmental, and water resources impact types. Phase 3 implemented a Web-based system to support eventual interaction with local collaborators while providing an innovative use of information technology for climate-change impact analysis.
This research project changed the primary stakeholder involvement from an evaluation and use of information technology at the end of the project to an early stakeholder interaction that was used to define and refine research elements. In the initial stages of this research project, Mackinaw River watershed stakeholders were identified and integrated into project startup activities. Stakeholders were interviewed individually and participated in focus groups. Written notes and digital records of interviews and focus groups were developed and analyzed. This analysis informed the development of scientific and technical activities in the research. The digital records have been used to identify specific stakeholder interests, and records of meetings are available for keyword searches to facilitate easy reference to stakeholder concerns. The interviews also supported refinement of sector identification and the targeting of research activities to stakeholder needs.
A major accomplishment of Phase 1 research was the development of access to historical climate records for Illinois. Through cooperation with the Illinois State Water Survey, weather station records—some dating from the late 1800s—were digitized. This historical data set was incorporated into the Web-based decision support system (DSS) developed as a part of Phase 3 activities. An initial identification of sectors and related systems was evaluated. We identified industrial, agricultural, municipal, and regulatory sectors in a human environment system; water resources, and landscape features (e.g., topography, roads, and drainage systems) in a physical environment system; and aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, and human health in the living system. Based on stakeholder sessions, transportation, insurance/finance, energy/utilities, land use, and parks and recreation were added as sectors to the human environment system; water resources were divided into water quantity and water quality in the physical system; and quality of life was added to the living system. Response spectra then were developed for these sectors using a variety of sources ranging from stakeholder input to modeling.
Phase 2 research incorporated the bulk of the research activities in this project. The expected changes in climate were developed from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modeling results, locally developed models, statistical estimation, and historical records from years reflecting temperature averages expected in climate-change scenarios. Two modeling efforts were at the core of the research. The first of these used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict change in agriculture and water resources. The second was an input/output econometric model. The SWAT model was used to evaluate the effect of a change where the climate becomes warmer and drier. Although both the warmer-wetter and warmer-drier scenarios generally are viewed as equally likely for Illinois, the warmer-drier scenario is more fraught with implications for adaptation. The primary focus of the analysis was to determine adaptation in agriculture by adoption of irrigation. This analysis indicated that in a scenario in which capital costs are sunk because of panic buying of equipment that might attend a drought, and the only cost of irrigation is the operating cost, irrigation could become widespread and lead to a significant increase in the number of days steams are at low-flow conditions. If the climate change is accompanied by a substantial increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the decreased moisture loss attending CO2 enrichment may counteract the effects of a drier climate such that even the operating cost of irrigation is unjustified economically. These findings apply to corn; other cropping scenarios are more robust to moisture stress. A soybean-winter-wheat double cropping scenario was uneconomical under the current climate scenario, but could be economical under the climate-change scenario.
A Regional Econometric Input-Output (REIO) model was developed and provides the core of the analysis capabilities in the decision support of this project. The REIO model was used to identify possible local impacts of climate change on socioeconomic systems. Analysis included classic impact, bottleneck, and sensitivity analyses with a regional interindustry trade I-O model developed for the six-county area in the Mackinaw River watershed. This analysis was used to identify which industries would most affect the long-run viability of the region if they were to suffer losses in capacity because of climate-change conditions such as extreme weather events. A layer-by-layer assessment was used for impact types and sector-focused impacts. A linked modeling framework was developed that was used in planning studies to explore mitigative response strategies. The models evaluated for inclusion in the framework included a dynamic econometric/I-O model, existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency models (e.g., in the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources [BASINS] package), and a dynamic optimization regional commodity flow model whose solution indicates transition paths to environmentally sustainable land-use and transportation configurations.
To this model core was added resource models. One resource model developed techniques using readily available stream cross-section data to evaluate potentials in the change in flood frequency under climate-change scenarios. A second model system integrated existing habitat-simulation models with fish population models to assess the consequences of climate change on fish populations. This model was refined to incorporate both flow and temperature.
Phase 3 research efforts were directed to the implementation of advanced technologies in support of decision making. The development of a Web-based system was initiated early in the project and was the basis for examination and selection of models and modeling approaches. A prototype Web-based DSS was developed as a part of this research, but not all models and modeling efforts were successful in providing needed flexibility for use by a wide range of stakeholders. The decision support effort identified the critical need for careful identification of query approaches to system information and the limitations in the use of models, which must be technically sophisticated to accommodate multiple factor climate-change predictions and retain a simplicity that makes limited demands on data input. The Web-based development included operational evaluation of model support for a DSS and integration of the multiple models developed for this research in the Web-accessed tool. The DSS also was used to develop an interview tool that takes advantage of Web access to improve stakeholder input.
This research project was intended to complete an integrated assessment of multiple-sector impacts of climate change on a Midwestern watershed. The project defined sector issues through stakeholder involvement and used a variety of modeling tools to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on single sectors and an integrated system of multiple sectors. The project successfully integrated historical climate analyses with current modeling predictions and provided easy access to historical climate data for Illinois. The modeling efforts included the use of existing models, the assembly of existing models to provide new, integrated analyses, and the development of new models. The project used a Web-based integration for project activities and developed a DSS that was implemented in a Web environment. The project demonstrated the strengths and weaknesses of new technologies, as well as the value and limitations of modeling in an open-ended decision environment that effectively meets single and multiple-sector requirements for impact analysis.
Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 31 publications | 4 publications in selected types | All 4 journal articles |
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Herricks EE, Bergner ER. Prediction of climate change effects of fish communities in the Mackinaw River watershed, Illinois, USA. Water Science and Technology 2003;48(10):199-207. |
R827451 (2002) R827451 (Final) |
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Orland B, Budthimedhee K, Uusitalo J. Considering virtual worlds as representations of landscape realities and as tools for landscape planning. Landscape and Urban Planning 2001;54(1-4):139-148. |
R827451 (Final) |
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Suen J-P, Eheart JW. Evaluation of neural networks for modeling nitrate concentrations in rivers. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management-ASCE 2003;129(6):505-510. |
R827451 (2002) R827451 (Final) |
Exit |
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Wuebbles DJ, Donaghy K. Climate change: a global issue affecting Illinois. Policy Forum: On the Environment 2002;15(1):1-4. |
R827451 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
decision support, soil and water assessment tool, SWAT, irrigation, regional interindustry trade, I-O econometric model, fish population modeling, land, soil, precipitation, ecological effects, indicators, scaling, habitat, preferences, public good, environmental assets, social science, ecology, hydrology, measurement methods, climate change, Illinois, IL, adaptive technologies, agriculture, aquatic ecology, climate models, climate variability, crop production, economic models, integrated assessments., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Hydrology, Ecology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, climate change, State, Economics, Ecological Risk Assessment, environmental monitoring, integrated assessments, risk assessment, adaptive technologies, economic models, climate models, Illinois (IL), agriculture, aquatic ecology, climate variability, crop productionProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.