Grantee Research Project Results

2002 Progress Report: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois

EPA Grant Number: R827451
Title: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois
Investigators: Herricks, Edwin E. , Orland, Brian A , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Eheart, J. Wayland
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2001 through September 30, 2002
Project Amount: $867,595
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems

Objective:

The overall objective of this research project is to complete an integrated assessment of multiple sector impacts produced by predicted changes in climate. The research uses models, standards, and innovative analysis tools. The impact assessment will focus on locations in the Mackinaw River Watershed in Illinois. The specific objectives are to: (1) develop sector specific responses to climate change; (2) identify relationships between and among sectors at each site, and among all sites; (3) apply the impact analysis paradigm to identify and quantify local impacts produced by climate change; (4) identify mechanisms that produce an adaptive response to climate change while developing sector/system resilience to climate change impact; and (5) integrate project results with a Web-based decision support interface available at the University of Illinois.

Progress Summary:

Research has concurrently proceeded on three project phases, with an emphasis during this project period in model development and evaluation for inclusion in the Decision Support System (DSS). Phase 1 accomplishments have advanced project utilization of historical weather data and the use of stakeholder input from initial workshops. Utilization of historical weather information has included integration with the DSS described below. Transcripts of interviews and workshops have been used to redefine sector prioritization and identify sector responses, which have been used to structure the DSS. These transcripts have been digitized and are used, via a keyword search, to support DSS elements. Progress on phase 2 includes development of economic and environmental models and integration of these models in the DSS. A Regional Econometric Input-Output (REIO) model has been developed and provides the core of the analysis capabilities in the DSS. The watershed model (SWAT) has been used to evaluate hydrologic, water quality, and policy implications of climate change scenarios and is being integrated in the DSS. A natural resources response model based on fisheries habitat availability and fish population modeling has been developed, and is being integrated into the DSS. Phase 3 development of a prototype Web-based system has been completed with an operational DSS available at http://www.imlab.psu.edu/rcc Exit . Specific accomplishments include operational evaluation of model support for the DSS and integration of models into the DSS structure. The DSS also provides an interview tool that will be used in stakeholder interviews as a final stage of project activity.

Future Activities:

Future activities during the no-cost extension are to refine models and complete a final set of stakeholder interviews.

Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Publications Views
Other project views:	All 31 publications	4 publications in selected types	All 4 journal articles

Publications
Type	Citation	Project	Document Sources
Journal Article	Herricks EE, Bergner ER. Prediction of climate change effects of fish communities in the Mackinaw River watershed, Illinois, USA. Water Science and Technology 2003;48(10):199-207.	R827451 (2002) R827451 (Final)	Abstract from PubMed Abstract: IWA Publishing-abstract Exit
Journal Article	Suen J-P, Eheart JW. Evaluation of neural networks for modeling nitrate concentrations in rivers. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management-ASCE 2003;129(6):505-510.	R827451 (2002) R827451 (Final)	Abstract: ASCE-Abstract Exit

Supplemental Keywords:

land, soil, precipitation, ecological effects, habitat, integrated assessment, community-based, survey, adaptation, Midwest, ecology, hydrology, social science, modeling., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecology, Hydrology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, climate change, State, Economics, Ecological Risk Assessment, risk assessment, adaptive technologies, integrated assessments, environmental monitoring, economic models, climate models, Illinois (IL), agriculture, aquatic ecology, climate variability, crop production

Relevant Websites:

http://www.imlab.psu.edu/rcc/ Exit

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.