Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois
EPA Grant Number: R827451Title: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois
Investigators: Herricks, Edwin E. , Orland, Brian A , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Eheart, J. Wayland
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Pennsylvania State University
Current Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2000 through September 30, 2001
Project Amount: $867,595
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The primary objective of this research project is to complete an integrated assessment of multiple sector impacts produced by predicted changes in climate in the Mackinaw River watershed in Illinois. The research uses models, and standard and innovative analysis tools. The specific objectives are to: (1) develop sector specific responses to climate change; (2) identify relationships between and among sectors at each site, and among all sites; (3) apply the impact analysis paradigm to identify and quantify local impacts produced by climate change; (4) identify mechanisms that produce an adaptive response to climate change, while developing sector/system resilience to climate change impact, and (5) integrate project results with a Web based decision support interface at the University of Illinois.
Progress Summary:
Research has proceeded concurrently on three project phases, with emphasis on model development and evaluation for inclusion in the decision support system (DSS). Phase 1 accomplishments have advanced project utilization of historical weather data and the use of stakeholder input from initial workshops. Utilization of historical weather information has included integration with the DSS described below. Transcripts of interviews and workshops have been used to redefine sector prioritization and identify sector responses, which have been used to structure the DSS. Phase 2 progress includes exercising the economic and environmental models and determining approaches to integration in the DSS. A regional econometric input-output (REIO) model has been developed and tested with known impacts produced by weather extremes. The watershed model (SWAT) has been used to evaluate hydrologic, water quality, and policy implications of climate change scenarios. A natural resources response model, based on fisheries habitat availability and fish population modeling, has been developed and is being integrated into the DSS. Phase 3 development of a prototype Web based system has continued, with a final interface selected and initial module implementation completed.
Accomplishments include operational evaluation of model support for the DSS. Specifically, the REIO has been developed to support both impact analysis and impact mitigation strategies. Watershed modeling has included continuing improvement to SWAT model capabilities, and the generation of output needed by REIO and natural resource models. The natural resource modeling component has completed integration of physical habitat modeling with temperature modeling in a fish population prediction tool.
Future Activities:
A major focus of research in the next reporting period will be the use of the DSS with stakeholders, and the development of mitigation or adaptive strategies to address climate change impacts. The focus on DSS utilization will include iterative, and interactive modification to the DSS based on stakeholder input, and general evaluation of how the DSS meets the needs of a range of technical professionals and local stakeholders.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 31 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
land, soil, precipitation, ecological effects, habitat, integrated assessment, community-based, survey, adaptation, Midwest, ecology, hydrology, social science, modeling., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Hydrology, Ecology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, climate change, State, Economics, Ecological Risk Assessment, environmental monitoring, integrated assessments, risk assessment, adaptive technologies, economic models, climate models, Illinois (IL), agriculture, aquatic ecology, climate variability, crop productionRelevant Websites:
http://www.imlab.psu.edu/rcc/ Exit
http://www.rehearsal.uiuc.edu/epa/web/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.