Grantee Research Project Results
2000 Progress Report: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois
EPA Grant Number: R827451Title: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois
Investigators: Herricks, Edwin E. , Orland, Brian A , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Eheart, J. Wayland
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Pennsylvania State University
Current Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000
Project Amount: $867,595
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Climate Change
Objective:
The primary objective of this research is to complete an integrated assessment of multiple sector impacts produced by predicted changes in climate. The research uses models, standard, and innovative analysis tools. The impact assessment will focus on locations in the Mackinaw River watershed in Illinois. The specific objectives are to: (1) develop sector specific responses to climate change; (2) identify relationships between, and among, sectors at each site, and among all sites; (3) apply the impact analysis paradigm to identify and quantify local impacts produced by climate change; (4) identify mechanisms that produce an adaptive response to climate change while developing sector/system resilience to climate change impact; and (5) integrate project results with a Web-based decision support interface available at the University of Illinois.
Progress Summary:
Research has proceeded concurrently on three project phases. Phase 1 accomplishments included identification of historical conditions in the Mackinaw watershed, which would be typical of expected climate change effects. Through interviews and workshops, we have initiated identification of sector by sector response extreme weather events and are developing a decision support system (DSS) interface that will assist in defining sector response to climate change, considered singly, and aggregated within and across sectors. Phase 2 progress includes identification of possible economic, environmental, and social effects of extreme weather events considering impact at the element/sector level. We have identified model support for the DSS and a tested reach-based hydraulic model, a watershed model (SWAT) and an input/output economic model in the DSS structure. Research on this phase of the research continues with the identification of additional models that support impact analysis and are compatible with the developing DSS. Phase 3 research has completed a prototype Web-based system that will support involvement from local collaborators and provide an innovative use of models and information technology to involve local community stakeholders in further impact analysis.
Specific accomplishments include providing Web-based access to weather data for Illinois (100 years of observations for 40 stations) and development of an interface tool permitting the data to be accessed, queried, and plotted in a user-friendly fashion. We have carried out sector by sector analyses of stakeholder responses to climate variability scenarios based on interviews and focus groups, IPCC publications, and on-line models, which is available on the project Web site. We have identified relationships between elements and provide on the project web site a large ?prime table' indicating the across-sector relationships from interviews and literature analyses. We have completed a regional economic analysis by conducting impact, bottleneck, and sensitivity analyses with a regional interindustry trade (I-O) model and are proceeding with layer by layer assessments for impact types and sector focused impacts by linking models of socio-economic and ecological systems. We have integrated the HEC-RAS hydrologic model in the DSS framework and completed initial steps in the application of SWAT to the Mackinaw watershed to support detailed assessments of water resources and water quality change due to climate change.
Future Activities:
A major focus of research in the next reporting period will be the deployment of a prototype DSS by June 2001, to test an interactive tool for helping stakeholders to understand and respond to the regional impacts of climate change. This effort will include testing of models to support "what-if" scenarios and improvement of the DSS through stakeholder feedback. We expect to improve vertical and horizontal integration of both analysis and effects determination and continue the improvement of modeling support and DSS sophistication.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 31 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
land, soil, precipitation, ecological effects, habitat, integrated assessment, community-based, survey, adaptation, Midwest, ecology, hydrology, social science, modeling., RFA, Air, Scientific Discipline, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Geographic Area, Ecological Risk Assessment, State, Economics, Ecology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Hydrology, climate change, Global Climate Change, economic models, environmental monitoring, integrated assessments, risk assessment, aquatic ecology, climate variability, climate models, adaptive technologies, Illinois (IL), agricultureRelevant Websites:
http://www.rehearsal.uiuc.edu/epa/web/ 
http://ux6.cso.uiuc.edu/~herricks/index.html
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.