Grantee Research Project Results
2011 Progress Report: Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling System
EPA Grant Number: R834286Title: Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling System
Investigators: Wu, Shiliang , Kaplan, Jed
Institution: Michigan Technological University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2010 through June 30,2011
Project Amount: $299,596
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air
Objective:
This project will investigate the potential impacts of changing land use and land cover on ozone and particulate matter (PM) air quality in the United States from 2010 to 2050. It will develop an integrated modeling system and quantify the contributing effects from changes in land cover due to climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization as well as those from anthropogenic land-use change. These changes are expected to affect air quality through various aspects including changes in the natural emissions of ozone and PM precursors and changes in the deposition of ozone and PM as well as their precursors. Some preliminary work has shown that these changes in the coming decades could have potentially large impacts on atmospheric chemistry and air quality.
Progress Summary:
The project has been progressing well and we have finished all the significant tasks as scheduled in year 1 and year 2 of this project. Major accomplishments in year 2 include:
(a). We have finalized our simulation for the 2000-2100 evolution of global vegetation using the LPJ dynamic vegetation model. Detailed analysis on the changes in vegetation coverage and density (expressed as the leaf area index, LAI) for various plant function types (PFTs) have been carried out. The discrepancy between our simulated LAI and those derived from the AVHRR satellite data products we identified in year 1 was largely attributed to the fact that the LPJ model only resolves PFTs but not specific vegetation species, as is the case for the current generation of global vegetation models.
(b). We have finalized the interfaces between different components of the integrated modeling system (including the GISS general circulation model, LPJ global dynamic vegetation model, and GEOS-Chem chemical transport model). The integrated modeling system has been applied to a suite of fully coupled ozone-NOx-VOC-aerosol simulations. The simulation results for ozone and aerosols have been compared to those using observed vegetation cover.
(c). We have examined the changes in atmospheric composition, oxidizing capacity and air quality associated with 2000-2100 vegetation change driven by climate change and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density between 2100 and 2000 could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with changes in the composition of temperate and boreal forests where conifer forests are replaced by those dominated
by broadleaf tree types, as well as a CO2-driven increase in vegetation density. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000-2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15% in 2050and 36% in 2100. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10% in 2050 and 20% in 2100. Summertime surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m-3 for large areas in Eurasia over the period of 2000-2100.
(d). We have regularly updated the project website (http://www.geo.mtu.edu/geoschem/landcover)
and made key results and data from this project available to the community.
Future Activities:
The major project tasks we have planned for year 3 include:
(a). Implement the 2000-2100 changes in anthropogenic land-use in the model following the IMAGE 2.2 scenario;
(b). Conduct full chemistry simulations with the 2050s vegetation and separate the effects of changes in anthropogenic land-use from those driven by climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization through sensitivity runs;
(c). Inter-comparison between the effects on atmospheric composition and air quality due to changes in anthropogenic land use and those due to climate-driven vegetation change;
(d). Compare the simulated ozone and aerosol air quality from the sensitivity runs to those from the control run and provide detailed assessment of the impacts of changing land use and land cover on air quality in the United States;
(e). Continue publish results from this project.
Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 10 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 10 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Hickman JE, Wu S, Mickley LJ, Lerdau MT. Kudzu (Pueraria montana) invasion doubles emissions of nitric oxide and increases ozone pollution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2010;107(22):10115-10119. |
R834286 (2010) R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
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Lam YF, Fu JS, Wu S, Mickley LJ. Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2011;11(10):4789-4806. |
R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) R833370 (Final) |
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Wu S, Mickley LJ, Kaplan JO, Jacob DJ. Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2012;12(3):1597-1609. |
R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Yu F, Luo G, Bates TS, Anderson B, Clarke A, Kapustin V, Yantosca RM, Wang Y, Wu S. Spatial distributions of particle number concentrations in the global troposphere: simulations, observations, and implications for nucleation mechanisms. Journal of Geophysical Research 2010;115(D17):D17205 (14 pp.). |
R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
air pollution, organic aerosols, agriculture expansion, natural emissions, ecosystem, forest, vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, tropospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosol, PM2.5, climate models, chemical transport models
, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, ECOSYSTEMS, climate change, Agroecosystems, Ecology and Ecosystems, Global Climate Change, environmental monitoring, air quality modeling, carbon sequestration, particulate matter, climate models, carbon dioxide, agriculture, environmental stressors, landscape characterization, deforestation, land use
Relevant Websites:
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.