Grantee Research Project Results
2012 Progress Report: Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling System
EPA Grant Number: R834286Title: Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling System
Investigators: Wu, Shiliang , Kaplan, Jed
Institution: Michigan Technological University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2011 through June 30,2012
Project Amount: $299,596
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air
Objective:
This project will investigate the potential impacts of changing land use and land cover on ozone and particulate matter (PM) air quality in the United States from 2010 to 2050. It will develop an integrated modeling system and quantify the contributing effects from changes in land cover due to climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization as well as those from anthropogenic land-use change. These changes are expected to affect air quality through various aspects, including changes in the natural emissions of ozone and PM precursors and changes in the deposition of ozone and PM as well as their precursors. Some preliminary work has shown that these changes in the coming decades could have potentially large impacts on atmospheric chemistry and air quality.
Progress Summary:
We have finished all the significant tasks as scheduled in years 1 through year 3 of this project. Major accomplishments in year 3 (07/01/2011-06/30/2012) include:
- We have completed full chemistry simulations with the 2050s and 2100s vegetation respectively by accounting for the combined effects on global vegetation from (i) anthropogenic land-use change, (ii) climate change, and (iii) increasing CO2 fertilization.
- Through sensitivity studies, we have examined in detail the effects of these vegetation changes on biogenic emissions, dry deposition, atmospheric composition, ozone and PM air quality. For example, the global annual isoprene emission would increase by 10% in 2050s and 25% in 2100s (driven by changes in vegetation composition and density) if only the climate-driven vegetation change is considered. However, when anthropogenic land use is accounted for, the global annual isoprene emission would decrease by 5% by 2050 but increase by 8% by 2100 (mainly due to changes in agriculture land use). The climate-driven vegetation change would decrease the atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OH levels) by 2% and 4% by 2050 and 2100, respectively. Large perturbations to ozone and PM air quality are calculated due to the vegetation change. Ozone in surface air would decrease for most continental regions (largely driven by increases in dry deposition) but for some regions increases by up to 8 ppb are calculated (largely driven by changes in biogenic emissions). Significant increases in secondary organic aerosols (SOA) by up to 1 μg/m3 are found over the Eurasia region due to increases in biogenic emissions; more than doubling of the 2000 levels of SOA are calculated by 2100 over large areas in the northern mid-latitudes.
- We have continued our efforts in sharing the model (including source code and tools for data processing and visualization) and data developed from this project with interested parties, in particular scientists and researchers in the community.
Future Activities:
- We plan to update the schemes for biogenic emissions (including NOx emissions from soil and isoprene emissions from vegetation) in the model to improve model simulations of biogenic emissions. Since these biogenic emissions are sensitive to the changes in land use and land cover, the improved schemes could help us better account for the impacts of land use/land cover change on biogenic emissions and consequently ozone and PM air quality.
- We also plan to explore the feasibility of driving the CMAQ model with the vegetation data generated in this project, which would allow us to examine the impacts of land use/land cover change at much higher resolutions.
- Finalize all the models and data products developed from this project; finish documentation of the models and tools used for data processing; summarize major findings from this project; and prepare the final project report.
- Continue our efforts in widely distributing project findings and sharing data generated from this project through (i) peer-reviewed publications; (ii) national and international conferences and workshops; and (iii) collaboration with other research groups on related topics and research questions.
Journal Articles on this Report : 5 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 10 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 10 journal articles |
|---|
| Type | Citation | ||
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Gonzalez Abad G, Allen NDC, Bernath PF, Boone CD, McLeod SD, Manney GL, Toon GC, Carouge C, Wang Y, Wu S, Barkley MP, Palmer PI, Xiao Y, Fu TM. Ethane, ethyne and carbon monoxide concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from ACE and GEOS-Chem: a comparison study. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2011;11(18):9927-9941. |
R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Hickman JE, Wu S, Mickley LJ, Lerdau MT. Kudzu (Pueraria montana) invasion doubles emissions of nitric oxide and increases ozone pollution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2010;107(22):10115-10119. |
R834286 (2010) R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
|
|
Lam YF, Fu JS, Wu S, Mickley LJ. Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2011;11(10):4789-4806. |
R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) R833370 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Wu S, Mickley LJ, Kaplan JO, Jacob DJ. Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2012;12(3):1597-1609. |
R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Yu F, Luo G, Bates TS, Anderson B, Clarke A, Kapustin V, Yantosca RM, Wang Y, Wu S. Spatial distributions of particle number concentrations in the global troposphere: simulations, observations, and implications for nucleation mechanisms. Journal of Geophysical Research 2010;115(D17):D17205 (14 pp.). |
R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Air pollution, organic aerosols, agriculture expansion, natural emissions, ecosystem, forest, vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, tropospheric ozone, climate models, chemical transport models;, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, ECOSYSTEMS, climate change, Agroecosystems, Ecology and Ecosystems, Global Climate Change, environmental monitoring, air quality modeling, carbon sequestration, particulate matter, climate models, carbon dioxide, agriculture, environmental stressors, landscape characterization, deforestation, land useRelevant Websites:
http://www.geo.mtu.edu/geoschem/landcover Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.