Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling System
EPA Grant Number: R834286Title: Impacts of Changes in Land Use and Land Cover on U.S. Air Quality: Development and Application of an Integrated Climate-Vegetation-Chemistry Modeling System
Investigators: Wu, Shiliang , Kaplan, Jed
Institution: Michigan Technological University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2009 through June 30,2010
Project Amount: $299,596
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air , Climate Change
Objective:
This project will investigate the potential impacts of changing land use and land cover on ozone and particulate matter (PM) air quality in the United States from 2010 to 2050. It will develop an integrated modeling system and quantify the contributing effects from changes in land cover due to climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization as well as those from anthropogenic land-use change. These changes are expected to affect air quality through various aspects including changes in the natural emissions of ozone and PM precursors and changes in the deposition of ozone and PM as well as their precursors. Some preliminary work has shown that these changes in the coming decades could have potentially large impacts on atmospheric chemistry and air quality.
Progress Summary:
The project was scheduled to start on July 1, 2009 as proposed. However, the funds did not arrive until September 2009. Hence there has been some delay in the personnel appointments. Nevertheless, the project has been progressing well and we have finished all the significant tasks as scheduled in year 1 –
- We have developed an interface between the LPJ global dynamic vegetation model and the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) enabling GEOS-Chem to be driven by dynamic vegetation simulated by the LPJ model.
- Using the monthly mean meteorological fields (including temperature, precipitation and cloud fraction) from the GISS GCM, we have calculated present-day vegetation distributions with the LPJ model, including the fractional coverage and leaf area index (LAI) for each vegetation type with global coverage. Some preliminary results have shown significant changes in LAI and spatial distribution of some vegetation types in response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. For example, the global spatial coverage of temperate broadleaf summergreen trees increase by 17% for 2000-2050 while the boreal needleleaf evergreen trees decrease by 9% for the same time period. Further analysis on the changes in vegetation are available in the detailed annual progress report. These changes in vegetation are expected to have significant effects on atmospheric chemistry and air quality by perturbing the biogenic emissions and also dry deposition of various atmospheric species.
- We have evaluated the model simulated present-day leaf area index (LAI) with observational data from the AVHRR satellite product. The LPJ model can generally reproduce the patterns for spatial and seasonal variations in LAI, but for some areas there remain large discrepancy compared to AVHRR data products and we are currently investigating on this issue.
- As planned in the proposal, we have developed a web site dedicated to the project (http://www.geo.mtu.edu/geoschem/landcover). This project website has been used to disseminate project background, significance and scientific results. It has also been used to share data among project participants as well as external researchers in the broad scientific community – anyone interested in the project results (including data and plots) is able to download these data from this website (we have also provided on the website a readme file as well as sample IDL codes for data processing and visualization purposes).
Future Activities:
The major project tasks we have planned for year 2 include:
- Investigate on the major factors leading to the discrepancies between the model simulated vegetation leaf area index and that from the AVHRR satellite data;
- Conduct fully coupled ozone-aerosol simulations with the global modeling system that has been developed (using simulated present-day vegetation);
- Validate the model simulated ozone and aerosols against observations;
- Finalize the interface and make it available to the community;
- Publish work from Year 1 and Year 2.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 10 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 10 journal articles |
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Hickman JE, Wu S, Mickley LJ, Lerdau MT. Kudzu (Pueraria montana) invasion doubles emissions of nitric oxide and increases ozone pollution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2010;107(22):10115-10119. |
R834286 (2010) R834286 (2011) R834286 (2012) R834286 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
air pollution, organic aerosols, agriculture expansion, natural emissions, ecosystem, forest, afforestation, carbon sequestration, tropospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosol, PM2.5, climate models;, RFA, Air, Scientific Discipline, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, ECOSYSTEMS, Agroecosystems, Global Climate Change, climate change, Ecology and Ecosystems, landscape characterization, environmental stressors, environmental monitoring, air quality modeling, particulate matter, climate models, ozone concentrations, carbon sequestration, land use, deforestation, agricultureRelevant Websites:
http://www.geo.mtu.edu/geoschem/ Exithttp://www.geo.mtu.edu/geoschem/landcover Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.