Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
EPA Grant Number: R827449Title: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
Investigators: Hobbs, N. Thompson , Covich, Alan , Ojima, Dennis , Loomis, John , McDuff, Mallory , Weiler, Stephan , Coughenour, Michael B. , Cooper, David J. , Theobald, David M. , Baron, Jill S. , Galbraith, Hector , Dickens, Joyce , Landrum, Laura
Institution: Colorado State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002 (Extended to September 30, 2003)
Project Amount: $894,846
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The main objective of this project was to understand how climate influences human and natural systems in the Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) and its gateway community, Estes Park, CO. To do so, we addressed the following specific objectives: (1) assess the potential consequences of changing land use and climate for landscape structure, aquatic biota, terrestrial wildlife, and native plant communities; (2) extend these biotic effects to predict likely changes in visitation and the implications of those changes for the local economy; and (3) based on the understandings gained above, help stakeholders identify and evaluate potential ways to respond to a changing landscape and climate.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
The following section describes results from the completed ecological and economic investigations that were performed to meet the objectives of the research project.
Measuring the Economic Impact of Resource Changes on Visitation at National Parks
This interdisciplinary study was motivated by an inquiry into possible economic impacts of climate change on visitation at RMNP and Estes Park, CO. The objective of the study is to inform Park management and community planners who are interested in future levels of Park visitation. Preliminary analysis indicates that 9 to 11 percent of visitors would change their behavior under the hypothetical scenarios and that overall visitation would increase. Survey data will be used to estimate the effect on visitation in order to develop forecasts of future visitation and the potential impacts to the local economy in Estes Park. The results have implications for Park managers (who must develop strategies for handling the increased visitor use) and for community planners (who must develop strategies for transportation, infrastructure, and employment changes resulting from increased visitation). The results of this study shortly will be submitted as a paper to the journal Ecological Economics.
How Might Global Climate Change Affect Alpine Tundra Ecosystems in the Colorado Front Range?
Modeling treeline shifts in relation to potential future temperature increases shows that alpine tundra habitat in the RMNP could be greatly reduced or entirely eliminated by regional increases of only 3-5°C. Such increases are well within the ranges predicted under global warming. This has serious implications for the survival of tundra however, throughout the central and southern Rockies. Rocky Mountain tundra, however, could be affected by global climate change effects in addition to, and more imminently than, simple treeline shifts. These also could lead to the further fragmentation of tundra through colonization by non-alpine grass and forb species, reduced patch sizes and increased distances between surviving patches, and invasion by weed species. These changes may have fundamental impacts long before those of treeline migration. Uncertainties in this analysis include the chronology of habitat loss and the likelihood of tundra loss as a result of intrinsic floristic factors. The results reported here have been submitted as a paper to the journal Climatic Change.
Analysis of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tundra-Dwelling Organisms: White-Tailed Ptarmigan
We examined the ability of local weather data and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to explain annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan. We performed canonical correlation analysis (CCA) on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOFs of the demographic and local climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. The NAO index, however, was related neither to the first two EOFs of local climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had a stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, that is, NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to a changing climate may be inadequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns. The results of this study are in press with the journal Biometeorology.
We simulated the effects of future warming on the ptarmigan population in RMNP using our best ptarmigan population model and future climate scenarios projected by the Canadian Climate Center and Hadley Centre (CCC) models. Our simulation results suggested that future warming would accelerate declines of the ptarmigan abundance. Although our results showed a clear population-level response to variation in climate, we did not detect a density-dependent effect in the ptarmigan population, and we cannot completely explain the inverse relationship between the winter temperatures and population growth rates of the ptarmigan. A process-oriented modeling approach is needed for future studies to elucidate the mechanisms of the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of the white-tailed ptarmigan. The results of this study are in press in the journal Climate Change Research.
Analysis of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Large Mammal Populations in RMNP
We addressed the potential impacts of climate, biota, and humans on the future distribution and abundance of elk in the RMNP, using the SAVANNA computer model. The model uses precipitation and temperature data to simulate snowpack. The winter range of elk and deer is primarily delineated by the distribution of shallow snow, which permits foraging in the winter. The model clearly simulates differences in snow accumulation between years, and longterm trends arising from changes in temperature and precipitation. A simulation was run with maximum daily temperatures increased by 2°C and minimum temperatures increased by 4°C. As a result, there is 25-40 percent less snow accumulation. This has consequences for elk and deer. Warmer temperatures affect vegetation biomass (with the responses of plants to elevated CO2 also represented). Results include the fact that there will be more elk in a warmer climate, because elk in better body condition reproduce faster and die more slowly. Thus, a warmer climate may result in larger elk populations in an area that is already suffering injury to vegetation communities from overabundance.
Analysis of Potential Climate Change Effects on Fire Regimes and Vegetation Communities. In this study, we characterize the recent fire regimes of RMNP, relate recent fire regime characteristics to recent climate characteristics, and project changes to fire regimes under two future climate scenarios (CCC and Hadley). Records were obtained from RMNP containing information on the date, source (lightning or human-caused), location, duration, and size of historic (1931-2000) fires in the Park. Model outputs were used to generate random realizations of fire starts and area burned under historic conditions and those projected for the future under two climate change scenarios. The spread and intensity of fires expected to exceed 100 acres were simulated with a spatially explicit fire prediction model. Preliminary comparisons indicate that a future similar to that projected by the CCC model could increase annual ignitions by 50 percent and double the annual probability of a large (greater than 1,000 acres) fire. A Hadley future appears to result in less substantial changes. Final analyses are nearly complete.
Modeling Global Warming Scenarios in Greenback Cutthroat Trout Streams: Implications for Species Recovery. Changes in global climate may exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors, accelerating the decline in distribution and abundance of rare species throughout the world. We examine the potential effects of a warming climate on the greenback cutthroat trout. We used likelihood-based techniques and information theoretics to select models predicting stream temperature changes for 10 streams to which greenback cutthroat trout have been translocated. These models showed high variability among responses by different streams, indicating the usefulness of a stream-specific approach. We used these models to project changes in stream temperatures based on 2°C and 4°C warming of average air temperatures. In these warming scenarios, spawning is predicted to begin from 2 to 3.3 weeks earlier than would be expected under baseline conditions. Of the 10 streams used in this assessment, 5 currently have less than a 50-percent chance of translocation success. Warming increased the probability of translocation success in these 5 streams by 11.2 percent and 21.8 percent in the two scenarios, respectively. We conclude that this overall improvement results because greenbacks have been restricted through competition with non-natives to sub-optimal habitats, which generally are too cold to be highly productive. This paper has been submitted to the journal Conservation Ecology.
Effects of Projected Climate Change on Ecosystem and Hydrologic Properties in the Big Thompson Watershed, Colorado: Model Results from the Regional HydroEcological Simulation System (RHESSys)
We ran RHESSys, a geographic information systems (GIS)-based, hydroecological modeling framework designed to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes with observed and Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios for the 42,000 km2 Big Thompson Watershed in Colorado. RHESSys uses observed meteorology and GIS landscape partitioning layers as input. Three process models are coupled within RHESSys to simulate meteorology over topographically varying terrain, ecosystem canopy processes, and watershed hydrological processes. Thirteen percent of the Big Thompson catchment is alpine rock and talus, 18 percent is alpine tundra, 66 percent is forested, and 3 percent is mountain meadow. RHESSys simulations using climate warming scenarios for mostly alpine catchments show strong changes in the timing of snowmelt, but they do not suggest large differences in stream discharge. In contrast, we show model results suggesting that evapotranspiration in the largely forested Big Thompson watershed will cause greatly reduced discharge under CCC-type warming.
Hydrologic, Geomorphic, and Climatic Processes Controlling Willow Establishment in RMNP
This research is aimed at understanding the processes that have facilitated or limited willow establishment, defined as survival through three growing seasons, over the last half of the 20th century. Analysis of relationships between peak flow and the periodicity of willow establishment reveals that the critical peak flow for establishment varies, depending on the site's dominant geomorphic process. Global climate change models predict that temperatures will increase and precipitation seasonality will shift over the next decade in the Rocky Mountains. These changes likely will result in earlier spring runoff, lower flows from late spring to fall, decreased snowpack, and decreased soil moisture in the Colorado Front Range. The predicted reduction in snowpack is likely to result in a significant decrease in moderate and high peak flows, decreasing the opportunities for willow establishment and causing significant changes in the rate of landform creation. The return of beaver to the system, however, may be able to mitigate water table and soil moisture declines and create increased opportunities for willow establishment through the creation of abandoned beaver complexes and channel sites.
Ecological Support for Rural Land Use Planning and Policy
In this study we identified typical information needs of land use planners and policymakers and provided a brief overview of rural land use planning, including key tools such as conservation acquisitions and easements. We drew some preliminary conclusions about how to formulate projects to inform rural land use planning. We described elements that are essential to successful application of ecological science to land use policy. Notable among these is the need to understand the challenge of balancing developers' needs for a fair and predictable process with the "learn-as-you-go" approach of adaptive management, the importance of integrating local knowledge with landscape-level information, and the value of using spatial and temporal modeling to estimate cumulative landscape-level effects. This paper has been submitted to the journal Ecological Applications.
An Evaluation of Possible Causes of Decline in Two Populations of Boreal Toads in Rocky Mountain National Park: An Information-Theoretic Approach
Two populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas) in RMNP have been sampled annually since 1991 using capture-recapture techniques. These populations were once among the largest in the southern Rocky Mountains, yet both populations have experienced recent declines in abundance and appear to be approaching extinction. Batrochochytrium dendrobatidis (chytrid fungus) was identified on live and dead boreal toads from these sites, suggesting that fungal infection is the cause of death in examined toads and a possible cause of the decline. Other hypotheses have not yet been evaluated, however.
Journal Articles on this Report : 7 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 16 publications | 8 publications in selected types | All 8 journal articles |
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Cooney SJ, Covich AP, Lukacs PM, Harig AL, Fausch KD. Modeling global warming scenarios in greenback cutthroat trout (oncorhynchus clarki stomias) streams:Implications for species recovery. Western North American Naturalist 2005;65(3):371-381. |
R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Loomis JB, Richardson RB. An external validity test of intended behavior: comparing revealed preference and intended visitation in response to climate change. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 2006;49(4):621-630. |
R827449 (Final) |
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Richardson RB, Loomis JB. Adaptive recreation planning and climate change: a contingent visitation approach. Ecological Economics 2004;50(1-2):83-99. |
R827449 (Final) |
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Wang GM, Hobbs NT, Giesen KM, Galbraith H, Ojima DS, Braun CE. Relationships between climate and population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Climate Research 2002;23(1):81-87. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Wang G, Hobbs TN, Galbraith H, Giesen KM. Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. International Journal of Biometeorology 2002;46(4):197-201. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Wang G, Hobbs NT, Singer FJ, Ojima DS, Lubow BC. Impacts of climate changes on elk population dynamics in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Climatic Change 2002;54(1-2):205-223. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Weiler S, Loomis J, Richardson R, Shwiff S. Driving regional economic models with a statistical model: hypotheses testing for economic impact analysis. Review of Regional Studies 2002;32(1):97-111. |
R827449 (2000) R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
watershed, global climate, ecosystem protection, ecosystem, terrestrial, aquatic, aquatic systems, terrestrial systems, terrestrial ecosystems, habitat, integrated assessment, public policy, contingent valuation, survey, preferences, economic preferences, ecology, social science, modeling, climate models, western, collaborative design, landscape change, economics, hydrology, state, climate change, aquatic ecology, biodiversity, economic models, ecosystem models, gateway communities, land use, landscape characterization., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Hydrology, Ecology, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, biodiversity, gateway communities, terrestrial ecosystems, economic models, water quality, biotic response, aquatic ecology, landscape characterization, land useProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.