Grantee Research Project Results
2002 Progress Report: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
EPA Grant Number: R827449Title: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
Investigators: Hobbs, N. Thompson , Covich, Alan , Ojima, Dennis , Loomis, John , McDuff, Mallory , Weiler, Stephan , Coughenour, Michael B. , Cooper, David J. , Theobald, David M. , Baron, Jill S. , Galbraith, Hector , Dickens, Joyce , Landrum, Laura
Institution: Colorado State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002 (Extended to September 30, 2003)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2001 through September 30, 2002
Project Amount: $894,846
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The overall objective of this research project is to understand how climate influences human and natural systems in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) and its gateway community, Estes Park, CO. The specific objectives of this research project are to: (1) assess the potential consequences of changing land use and climate for landscape structure, aquatic biota, terrestrial wildlife, and native plant communities; (2) extend these biotic effects to predict likely changes in visitation and the implications of those changes for the local economy; and (3) based on the understandings gained above, help stakeholders identify and evaluate potential ways to respond to a changing landscape and climate.
Progress Summary:
Measuring the Economic Impact of Resource Changes on Visitation at National Parks
This interdisciplinary study was motivated by an inquiry into possible economic impacts of climate change on visitation at RMNP and its gateway community, Estes Park, CO. As a result of this study, we hope to inform Park management and community planners who are interested in future levels of Park visitation. Preliminary analysis indicates that 9 to 11 percent of visitors would change their behavior under the hypothetical scenarios, and that overall visitation would increase. Survey data will be used to estimate the effect on visitation to develop forecasts of future visitation and the potential impacts to the local economy in Estes Park. The results have implications for Park managers (who must develop a strategy for handling the increased visitor use) and community planners (who must develop a strategy for transportation, infrastructure, and employment changes resulting from increased visitation).
How Might Global Climate Change Affect Alpine Tundra Ecosystems in the Colorado Front Range?
Modeling tree line shifts in relation to potential future temperature increases shows that alpine tundra habitat in RMNP, could greatly be reduced or eliminated by regional increases of only 3 to 5°C. Such increases are well within the ranges predicted under global warming. This has serious implications for the survival of tundra throughout the central and southern Rockies. However, Rocky Mountain tundra could be affected by global climate change effects in addition to, and more imminently than, simple tree line shifts. These also could lead to the further fragmentation of tundra through colonization by non-alpine grass and forb species, reduced patch sizes, increased distances between surviving patches, and invasion by weed species. These changes may have fundamental impacts long before those of tree line migration. Uncertainties in this analysis include the chronology of habitat loss and the likelihood of tundra loss because of intrinsic floristic factors.
Analysis of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tundra-Dwelling Organisms: White-Tailed Ptarmigan
We examined the ability of local weather data and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to explain annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan. We performed canonical correlation analysis (CCA) on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces significantly were correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOFs of the demographic and local climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was not related to the first two EOFs of local climate subspace, or to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had a stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than a large-scale index (i.e., NAO index). We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to a changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.
We simulated the effects of future warming on the ptarmigan population in RMNP using our best ptarmigan population model and future climate scenarios projected by the Canadian Climate Center and Hadley Centre (CCC) models. Our simulation results suggested that future warming would accelerate declines of the ptarmigan abundance. Although our results showed a clear population level response to variation in climate, we did not detect a density dependent effect in the ptarmigan population, and we cannot completely explain the inverse relationship between the winter temperatures and population growth rates of the ptarmigan. A process-oriented modeling approach is needed for future studies to elucidate the mechanisms of the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of the white-tailed ptarmigan.
Analysis of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Large Mammal Populations in RMNP
We addressed the potential impacts of climate, biota, and humans on the future distribution and abundance of elk in the RMNP, using the SAVANNA computer model. The model uses precipitation and temperature data to simulate snow pack. The winter range of elk and deer primarily is delineated by the distribution of shallow snow, which permits foraging in the winter. The model clearly simulates differences in snow accumulation between years, and long-term trends arising from changes in temperature and precipitation. A simulation was run where maximum daily temperatures were increased by 2°C, and minimum temperatures were increased by 4°C. As a result, there is 25 to 40 percent less snow accumulation. This, in turn, has consequences for elk and deer. Warmer temperatures affect vegetation biomass (with the responses of plants to elevated CO2 also represented). Results indicate that there will be more elk with a warmer climate, because elk in better body condition reproduce faster and die slower. Therefore, a warmer climate may result in larger elk populations in an area that is already suffering injury to vegetation communities because of overabundance.
Analysis of Potential Climate Change Effects on Fire Regimes and Vegetation Communities
In this study, we characterized the recent fire regimes of RMNP, related recent fire regime characteristics to recent climate characteristics, and projected changes to fire regimes under two future climate scenarios (CCC and Hadley). Records were obtained from the Park containing information on the date, source (lightning or human caused), location, duration, and size of historic (1931-2000) fires in the Park. Model outputs were used to generate random realizations of fire starts and area burned under historic conditions, and those projected for the future under two climate-change scenarios. The spread and intensity of fires expected to exceed 100 acres were simulated with a spatially explicit fire prediction model. Preliminary comparisons indicate that a future similar to that projected by the CCC model could increase annual ignitions by 50 percent and double the annual probability of a large (greater than 1,000 acres) fire. A Hadley future appears to result in less substantial changes. Final analyses nearly are complete.
Modeling Global Warming Scenarios in Greenback Cutthroat Trout Streams: Implications for Species Recovery
Changes in global climate may exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors accelerating the decline in distribution and abundance of rare species throughout the world. We examined the potential effects of a warming climate on the greenback cutthroat trout. We used likelihood-based techniques and information theoretics to select models predicting stream temperature changes for 10 streams to where greenback cutthroat trout have been translocated. These models showed high variability among responses by different streams, indicating the usefulness of a stream-specific approach. We used these models to project changes in stream temperatures based on 2°C and 4°C warming of average air temperatures. In these warming scenarios, spawning is predicted to begin from 2 to 3.3 weeks earlier than would be expected under baseline conditions. Of the 10 streams used in this assessment, 5 currently have less than a 50 percent chance of translocation success. Warming increased the probability of translocation success in these five streams by 11.2 percent and 21.8 percent in the two scenarios, respectively. We conclude that this overall improvement results because greenbacks have been restricted through competition with non-natives to suboptimal habitats, which generally are too cold to be highly productive.
Effects of Projected Climate Change on Ecosystem and Hydrologic Properties in the Big Thompson Watershed, CO: Model Results From the Regional HydroEcological Simulation System (RHESSys)
We ran RHESSys, a GIS-based, hydroecological modeling framework designed to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes with observed and Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios for the 42,000 sq. km Big Thompson Watershed in Colorado. RHESSys uses observed meteorology and GIS landscape partitioning layers as input. Three process models are coupled within RHESSys to simulate meteorology over topographically varying terrain, ecosystem canopy processes, and watershed hydrological processes. Thirteen percent of the Big Thompson catchment is alpine rock and talus, 18 percent is alpine tundra, 66 percent is forested, and 3 percent is mountain meadow. RHESSys simulations using climate warming scenarios for mostly alpine catchments show strong changes in the timing of snowmelt but do not suggest large differences in stream discharge. In contrast, we show model results that suggest evapotranspiration in the largely forested Big Thompson Watershed will cause greatly reduced discharge under CCC-type warming.
Hydrologic, Geomorphic, and Climatic Processes Controlling Willow Establishment in RMNP
This research is aimed at understanding the processes that have facilitated or limited willow establishment, defined as survival through three growing seasons, over the last half of the 20th century. Analysis of relationships between peak flow and the periodicity of willow establishment reveals that the critical peak flow for establishment varies, depending on the site's dominant geomorphic process. Global climate change models predict that temperatures will increase and precipitation seasonality will shift over the next 10 years in the Rocky Mountains. These changes likely will result in earlier spring runoff, lower flows from late-spring to fall, decreased snowpack, and decreased soil moisture in the Colorado Front Range. The reduction in snowpack predicted likely will result in a significant decrease in moderate and high peak flows, decreasing the opportunities for willow establishment, and causing significant changes in the rate of landform creation. However, the return of the beaver to the system may mitigate water table and soil moisture declines, and create increased opportunities for willow establishment through the creation of abandoned beaver complex and abandoned channel sites.
Ecological Support for Rural Land Use Planning and Policy
In this study, we identified typical information needs of land use planners and policymakers and provided a brief overview of rural land use planning, including key tools such as conservation acquisitions and easements. We drew some preliminary conclusions about how to formulate projects to inform rural land use planning. We described elements that are essential to successful application of ecological science to land use policy. Notable among these is the need to understand the challenge of balancing developers' needs for a fair and predictable process with the "learn as you go" approach of adaptive management, the importance of integrating local knowledge with landscape-level information, and the value of using spatial and temporal modeling to estimate cumulative landscape-level effects.
An Evaluation of Possible Causes of Decline in Two Populations of Boreal Toads in Rocky Mountain National Park: an Information-Theoretic Approach
Two populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas) in RMNP have annually been sampled since 1991 using capture-recapture techniques. These populations were once among the largest in the southern Rocky Mountains. However, both populations have experienced recent declines in abundance, and appear to be approaching extinction. Batrochochytrium dendrobatidis (chytrid fungus) was identified on live and dead boreal toads from these sites, suggesting that fungal infection is the cause of death in examined toads and a proximate cause of decline. However, other hypotheses have not yet been evaluated.
Future Activities:
Future activities between now and September 30, 2003 include: (1) the production of a final report for EPA and the stakeholders; (2) production and submission of more research papers to scientific journals; and (3) further discussion of collaboration with stakeholders.
Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 16 publications | 8 publications in selected types | All 8 journal articles |
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Cooney SJ, Covich AP, Lukacs PM, Harig AL, Fausch KD. Modeling global warming scenarios in greenback cutthroat trout (oncorhynchus clarki stomias) streams:Implications for species recovery. Western North American Naturalist 2005;65(3):371-381. |
R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Galbraith H, Wockner GL, Wang G, Hobbs NT. Potential effects of global climate change on alpine tundra ecosystems in the front range of Colorado. Landscape Ecology. |
R827449 (2002) |
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Wang GM, Hobbs NT, Giesen KM, Galbraith H, Ojima DS, Braun CE. Relationships between climate and population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Climate Research 2002;23(1):81-87. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Wang G, Hobbs TN, Galbraith H, Giesen KM. Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. International Journal of Biometeorology 2002;46(4):197-201. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Wang G, Hobbs NT, Singer FJ, Ojima DS, Lubow BC. Impacts of climate changes on elk population dynamics in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Climatic Change 2002;54(1-2):205-223. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Weiler S, Loomis J, Richardson R, Shwiff S. Driving regional economic models with a statistical model: hypotheses testing for economic impact analysis. Review of Regional Studies 2002;32(1):97-111. |
R827449 (2000) R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
media, watershed, global climate, ecosystem protection, ecosystem, terrestrial, aquatic, habitat, integrated assessment, public policy, contingent valuation, survey, preferences, ecology, social science, modeling, surveys, climate models, geographic areas, western., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecology, Hydrology, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, biodiversity, gateway communities, terrestrial ecosystems, economic models, water quality, biotic response, aquatic ecology, landscape characterization, land useRelevant Websites:
http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/star Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.