Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
EPA Grant Number: R827449Title: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
Investigators: Hobbs, N. Thompson , Covich, Alan , Ojima, Dennis , Loomis, John , McDuff, Mallory , Weiler, Stephan , Coughenour, Michael B. , Cooper, David J. , Theobald, David M. , Baron, Jill S. , Galbraith, Hector
Current Investigators: Hobbs, N. Thompson , Covich, Alan , Ojima, Dennis , Loomis, John , McDuff, Mallory , Weiler, Stephan , Coughenour, Michael B. , Cooper, David J. , Theobald, David M. , Baron, Jill S. , Galbraith, Hector , Dickens, Joyce , Landrum, Laura
Institution: Colorado State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002 (Extended to September 30, 2003)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2000 through September 30, 2001
Project Amount: $894,846
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The main objective of this project is to understand how climate influences human and natural systems in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) and its gateway community, Estes Park, CO. The objectives of this research project are to: (1) assess the potential consequences of changing land-use and climate for landscape structure, water quality, aquatic biota, terrestrial wildlife, and native plant communities; (2) extend these biotic effects to predict likely changes in visitation and the implications of those changes for the local economy; and (3) help stakeholders identify and evaluate potential ways to respond to a changing landscape and climatic context, based on the understanding gained above.
Progress Summary:
During the year October 1, 2000-September 30, 2001, a number of crucial project goals were accomplished. These are listed below.
Development and Implementation of Park Visitor Survey. This interdisciplinary study was motivated by an inquiry into possible economic impacts of climate change on visitation at RMNP and its gateway community, Estes Park, CO. We began by assuming that park visitation is affected by changes in natural resources and in management direction. Our hypothesis was that visitation is a function of several climatic and demographic variables. Changes in weather patterns affect the visitor's experience directly and indirectly (through changes in affected flora and fauna).
A visitor survey was administered during the summer of 2001. Respondents were asked to estimate the changes in their number of trips and length of stay, contingent upon potential changes in climate. Preliminary analysis indicates that from 9 to 11 percent of visitors would change their behavior under the hypothetical scenarios, and that overall visitation would increase. Survey data will be used to estimate the effect on visitation in order to develop forecasts of future visitation and the impact to the local economy in Estes Park.
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tundra Organisms: white-tailed ptarmigan.
Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather
patterns, or through larger scale climatic process (e.g., the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO)). We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO
to explain annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan
using canonical correlation analysis on demographic and climate data from 1975-1999.
We found that while the population demographics of ptarmigan in the study area
is affected by local climate factors (which probably contribute to the long-term
population decline that has been occurring), the NAO index was not a significant
contributor. We conclude that in high relief environments, local responses of
wildlife populations to changing climate may not be entirely explained by models
that project large-scale climatic patterns, but that local (orographic) climatic
factors may also be important.
The potential for human-induced changes in climate has raised questions about
how these changes might affect wildlife populations. Our results suggest that
in RMNP, median hatch dates advanced significantly from 1975-1999 in response
to increases in April and May temperatures. Our best approximating population
model indicates that high winter minimum temperatures retard the growth rate
of the population. Our data also had reasonable support that high mean winter
monthly temperatures and high mean winter monthly maximum temperatures might
lower the population growth rate. We simulated the effects of future warming
on the ptarmigan population in RMNP using our best ptarmigan population model
and future climate scenarios projected by the Canadian Climate Center and Hadley
Centre models. Our simulation results suggested that future warming would accelerate
current declines in ptarmigan abundance.
Analysis of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Large Mammal Populations in RMNP. The SAVANNA computer model is being used to conduct an integrated assessment of the interactions between climate, biota, and humans over time in the RMNP. In particular, we are addressing the potential impacts of these factors on the future distribution and abundance of elk.
SAVANNA consists of submodels that represent soil, water, nutrient cycles, plant biomass production, plant population dynamics, and animals. The ungulate (elk) models represent forage intake, energy balance, populations, and spatial distributions. There is a flow of causality from forage plant abundance through forage intake to animal populations. When plant abundance is high, forage intake is high, and elk population increases. Snow depth affects forage intake rate, as well as animal spatial distributions. An important input to the model, especially for this project, is climate data. The model uses weather data from several primary weather stations throughout the region. In addition, snow pack data from several SNOTEL sites are utilized. The model uses monthly data for precipitation temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and snow pack. This last has a large effect on animal distributions.
We simulated future climate by increasing maximum daily temperatures 2°C and minimum temperatures by 4°C. As a result, there is 25-40 percent less snow accumulation. This in turn has consequences for elk: we found that under the future warmer climate, elk body condition indices were higher than with the current climate. This is due to shallower snows, and it occurs despite a slight decrease in plant production. The implication of this is that there will be more elk with a warmer climate, because elk in better body condition reproduce faster and die slower. Thus, a warmer climate may result in yet larger elk populations in an area that is already suffering injury to vegetation communities due to overabundance.
Analysis of Potential Climate Change Effects on Fire Regimes and Vegetation Communities. Climate changes will likely alter zones of potential habitation for many tree species, as well as affect rates of litter accretion and decomposition. These altered fuel conditions will interact with altered temperature and moisture regimes to influence the probability of fire ignition, spread, and intensity. Changes in fire regimes will, in turn, feedback to further alter vegetation patterns. Such changes may have enormous implications not only for the vegetation ecology of RMNP, but for many animal species that adapt to the current ecological landscape. During this study period, we began investigating the potential consequences of global climate change on the fire regime and vegetation of RMNP with the aid of three extant models: a fire area simulator, a fire succession model, and a landscape change model.
We are using the LANDSIM model to explore the potential consequences of altered fire regimes on vegetation in RMNP. Like all the other landscape models considered, LANDSIM requires the user to define how climate change will alter the fire regime component of the model. We are determining the likely effects of climate change on fire starts, sizes, and intensities in the Park with the widely used spatial fire simulator, FARSITE.
The LANDSIM model also requires user inputs for successional drivers that may be altered by climate change. These drivers include species reproductive potential and fuel accumulation rates in represented habitats. The succession model FIRESUM is being used to infer the effects of climate change on these rates.
Modeling Climate Change Implications for Greenback Cutthroat Trout in RMNP. Many species may survive gradual climatic changes through migration or adaptation. However, rapid climate change combined with anthropogenic stressors, such as habitat fragmentation, will make these potential coping mechanisms more difficult. Global warming may therefore exacerbate species extinctions due to restricted ranges and reduced habitat availability.
We have examined the response to global warming of the greenback cutthroat trout. Nonnative competitors, river regulation, and loss of water quality at low elevations have restricted the range of this fish to marginal habitats in high elevation lakes and headwater streams in the South Platte and Arkansas River drainages in Colorado. Currently, barriers to upstream migration protect greenback cutthroat trout populations in these areas from further encroachment by nonnative species. We generated predictive stream temperature models for 10 greenback cutthroat trout translocation streams (five successful, five unsuccessful) from existing air temperature and water temperature data. We used these models to forecast changes in stream temperatures based on projected surface air temperature warming scenarios of 2°C and 4°C. In these warming scenarios, spawning is predicted to begin from 2 to 3.3 weeks earlier, respectively. The probability of translocation success is predicted from an existing model. As the growing season increases, it increases in these 10 streams by 10 percent and 17 percent, respectively, in the two scenarios. We conclude that this overall improvement is a result of the marginal ecosystems greenbacks currently inhabit, which are generally too cold to be highly productive. Results indicate that whirling disease may become more prevalent in some streams as temperatures rise, although most streams used in this assessment are predicted to remain too cold for maximal rates of whirling disease infection.
Future Activities:
We are working with our stakeholder advisory committee to plan a final workshop that will report results of our assessment and explore coping mechanisms. We have 10 manuscripts in preparation for submission to scientific journals. We will complete simulation modeling exercisers and statistical analyses of survey results. We will arrange presentations for EPA regional labs, RMNP staff, the Estes Chamber Resort Association, and other interested groups. We also have presentation schedules for the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography.
Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 16 publications | 8 publications in selected types | All 8 journal articles |
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Wang GM, Hobbs NT, Giesen KM, Galbraith H, Ojima DS, Braun CE. Relationships between climate and population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Climate Research 2002;23(1):81-87. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Wang G, Hobbs TN, Galbraith H, Giesen KM. Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. International Journal of Biometeorology 2002;46(4):197-201. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Wang G, Hobbs NT, Singer FJ, Ojima DS, Lubow BC. Impacts of climate changes on elk population dynamics in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Climatic Change 2002;54(1-2):205-223. |
R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Weiler S, Loomis J, Richardson R, Shwiff S. Driving regional economic models with a statistical model: hypotheses testing for economic impact analysis. Review of Regional Studies 2002;32(1):97-111. |
R827449 (2000) R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
watershed, global climate, ecosystem, terrestrial, aquatic, habitat, integrated assessment, public policy, contingent valuation, survey, preferences, ecology, social science, modeling, surveys, climate models, western., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecology, Hydrology, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, biodiversity, gateway communities, terrestrial ecosystems, economic models, water quality, biotic response, aquatic ecology, landscape characterization, land useProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.