Grantee Research Project Results
2000 Progress Report: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
EPA Grant Number: R827449Title: An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain National Park and its Gateway Community: Interactions of Multiple Stressors
Investigators: Hobbs, N. Thompson , Covich, Alan , Ojima, Dennis , Loomis, John , McDuff, Mallory , Weiler, Stephan , Coughenour, Michael B. , Cooper, David J. , Theobald, David M. , Baron, Jill S.
Current Investigators: Hobbs, N. Thompson , Covich, Alan , Ojima, Dennis , Loomis, John , McDuff, Mallory , Weiler, Stephan , Coughenour, Michael B. , Cooper, David J. , Theobald, David M. , Baron, Jill S. , Galbraith, Hector , Dickens, Joyce , Landrum, Laura
Institution: Colorado State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002 (Extended to September 30, 2003)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000
Project Amount: $894,846
RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
Gateway communities are concentrations of human population and commerce in close proximity to conservation areas. We are working to understand how climate influences human and natural systems in Rocky Mountain National Park and its gateway community, Estes Park, Colorado. The global objectives of our project are to: (1) assess the potential consequences of changing land-use and climate for landscape structure, water quality, aquatic biota, terrestrial wildlife, and native plant communities; (2) extend these biotic effects to predict likely changes in visitation and the implications of those changes for the local economy; and (3) based on the understanding gained above, help stakeholders identify and evaluate potential ways to respond to a changing landscape and climatic context.Progress Summary:
Our accomplishments during Year 1 cluster in four main areas of effort: organizing stakeholder input, developing historic weather databases and climate scenarios, analyzing historic weather data and system responses, and parameterizing integrative simulation models.
Organizing Stakeholder Input. Our stakeholder process involved two components?quarterly meetings with a stakeholder advisory committee and a larger single-day workshop. The stakeholder advisory committee is composed of representatives of particularly important clients, including Rocky Mountain National Park, the Estes Valley Improvement Association, the Town of Estes Park, the Estes Park Chamber Resort Association, and the Big Thompson Watershed Forum. The advisory committee meets quarterly with project scientists to respond to initial findings and to help plan stakeholder workshops. The advisory committee will play an important role in disseminating project findings.
We held a Stakeholder Workshop during May 2000 to report results of preliminary assessments and to seek input on research directions and priorities. (See workshop report under Publications, below.) Our workshop was attended by 38 citizens and park managers with a broad spectrum of interests in impacts of climate change. Scientists presented results of a preliminary assessment. Stakeholders met with scientists in focus groups to discuss: (1) climate effects on livelihood and quality of life, (2) current stressors on Estes valley ecosystems, and (3) opportunities for benefits from climate change.
We are working to evaluate the efficacy of the stakeholder process using observer participation and structured interviews with project scientists and the stakeholder advisory committee.
Developing Weather Databases and Climate Scenarios. The Rocky Mountain National Park Climate data for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science to Achieve Results (STAR) project was derived from the climate data developed for the U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/National Climate) by the VEMAP Phase 2 Data Development Group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (VEMAP Web site: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/ve298.html). The climate data is a 0.5 degree gridded data set of monthly averaged minimum and maximum temperatures, monthly precipitation, monthly radiation, and relative humidity fields. The historical data (1895 to 1993) are based on the U.S. National Climate Data Center's Historical Climate Network archive utilizing approximately 1,200 stations. A historical base climate was determined for each 0.5 degree spatial grid for the time averaged period from 1961 to 1990, this is considered the climatological baseline. For our study, we selected the grid cell most similar to the climate space of the study sites in the Rocky Mountain National Park and surrounding areas including Estes Park. The interannual variability and overall climate statistics of the baseline climatology was similar to other weather stations located in the region. Certain biases were evident in the comparisons between the VEMAP Estes Park grid and station data due to elevation differences and topographical differences.
We used the two general circulation model scenarios used in the U.S. National Assessment based on the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and Hadley Centre simulations. For the temperature data, the monthly differences between the baseline and scenario years of the GCM data were combined with the baseline climatology of the historical period to create the scenario climates for a transient greenhouse gas and aerosol simulation out to 2100. The precipitation scenarios were computed differently, since the ratio of future/historical was first computed and these were used to multiply the baseline climatological precipitation data to derive the scenario climate.
We derived the Estes Park climate data based on the VEMAP data. For selected decades of the scenario for the CCC and Hadley models, we generated decadal monthly means of temperatures and precipitation. These were then used to compute the average decadal changes in climate variable. These changes were added (multiplied for precipitation) to the historical baseline period to generate a modified 30-year climate adjusted for the climate change period in a potential future decade. Thus, the only changes created were in the modal amplitude of the monthly climate for a 30-year period; interannual variability of the baseline period was preserved.
Additional climate scenarios will be developed for other variables, such as relative humidity and solar radiation. Also, as new GCM based scenarios are made available, we will be able to create new data sets as needed.
Analysis of Historic Weather Data and System Responses. One of the priorities for research identified in the stakeholder process was to evaluate the consequences of historic variation in weather as a way to understand the potential effects of future climate change. In response to this priority, we sought data on biotic responses that could be linked to variation in weather data.
We investigated the potential for climate change to affect the abundance of the elk population by selecting the best approximating models of effects of weather on survival and recruitment. We estimated model parameters using 35 years of annual census data and monthly data on average minimum temperature, average temperature, and precipitation during winter and summer. We then used climate scenarios to adjust baseline weather data to reflect potential climate change and to project changes in elk numbers. Model results suggest that a warming climate could cause 40-100 percent increases in equilibrium densities of the park's elk population.
Park managers, Division of Wildlife personnel, and citizen advocates have been cooperating to restore Greenback Cutthroat Trout in Rocky Mountain National Park. Habitat suitable for this species is limited by competition with exotic species, and there is concern that climate change may further constrict the area of lakes and streams that can support this species.
We investigated how climate influences the area of habitat available for greenback cutthroats. Spawning is limited to areas of streams with appropriate substrate and temperature. We began developing models of the relationship between air and water temperature to assess how climate change will affect the time interval when trout can spawn and grow. These empirical models will allow us to use climate scenarios to project how habitat area will change.
The potential loss of riparian shrubs from landscapes in Rocky Mountain National Park represents a fundamentally important concern for park managers. There is evidence that browsing by overly abundant elk may be causing sustained decline in willow communities. Climate change could interact with this existing stress. We initiated work to understand links between willow establishment, survival, and stream hydrologic processes. We are studying the relationship of willow establishment over the past 3-5 decades to known floods, and also the relationship of floods to landscape formation patterns and processes. We are particularly interested in understanding the year or years that willow stands have established, the relationship of stand age structure to past hydrologic events, and the type of geomorphic surfaces that have provided suitable habitat for establishment. It is possible to precisely determine the age of individual willow plants by analyzing woody stem growth rings in the root crown and taproot.
Using records of stream flow available from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauges in the vicinity of our study areas, it will be possible to analyze flow characteristics during the years that willows have established on different landforms. Correlations with peak flow, duration of flow of a certain stage, or flood frequency can yield important information about hydrologic requirements for willow establishment and survival. This information will be used to model potential changes in the availability of suitable hydrologic conditions for willow establishment due to climate changes. Correlations between flow characteristics and willow establishment will form the basis of our technical data set for modeling. We will use the RHESSys model to analyze changes in hydrologic regime due to possible climate change scenarios and the implications for willow establishment.
We also used our weather database and records of monthly visitation during the last 11 years to estimate a simple regression model of monthly visitation as a function of five variables that serve as proxies for major climatic and demographic influences on visitation. The simple model explains nearly all (88 percent) of the variation in monthly visitation over this 11-year time period. Model results suggest that one additional snow on the ground at Bear Lake reduces monthly visitation by 386 visits. One degree Celsius higher temperature in Estes Park increases visits by 18,457 each month. We used the IMPLAN input-output model to project consequences of changes in visitation for the local economy. Climate change estimated from the CCC and Hadley GCM models show a 333,540 to 193,000 visitor increase, respectively, for the 1996 base year. We introduced these additional visitors along with their postulated spending into the IMPLAN model to determine the local impact on output, employment, and income. The ?warmer' CCC scenario would result in over $33 million (10 percent) in increased local output, 822 (13 percent) new jobs, and over $13 million (10 percent) of additional income. The Hadley model yields over $19 million (6 percent) in increased local output, 477 (7 percent) new jobs, and over $13 million (6 percent) of additional income.
Parameterizing and Tuning Simulation Models. Our analysis of effects of climate change will rely in part on purely empirical relationships developed from historic data, described above. We will compliment this empirical work with mechanistic, simulation modeling. We are particularly interested in using simulation to examine the interactions between land-use change and climate change. To do that, we will use a land-use change model to project scenarios for development of new housing and infrastructure. We will use the scenarios for changing land-use as well as changing climate to drive two ecosystem models, RHESSys and SAVANNA. We will conduct runs with land-use change alone, climate change alone, and climate and land-use change. During Year 1, we have worked to parameterize these models.
Responses of large herbivores and vegetation to changing land-use and climate will be simulated using the SAVANNA ecosystem model. SAVANNA is a spatially explicit model that includes process-oriented sub models of carbon flows through three trophic levels, plant, and soil water budgets, and plant and animal population dynamics. SAVANNA requires digital maps of elevation, slope and aspect, soil, vegetation, hydrology, water sources, wildlife distributions, and fires. The model operates on a weekly time-step and is driven by monthly rainfall and temperature maps, which are dynamically interpolated from base station data accounting for topographic effects. We are nearly complete in assembling the data needed to parameterize SAVANNA for application to Rocky Mountain National Park. Initial model tuning is complete.
RHESSys is a GIS-based, hydro-ecological modeling framework designed to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes. The system takes as input information describing the characteristics of the forest canopy, soils, topography, and meteorology of an area and estimates the net energy, water, and carbon exchange between the landscape and the atmosphere.
We will use RHESSys to address the following questions:
- Are water supplies from the Big Thompson altered under warmer (cooler), wetter (drier) climates? By how much? How will this affect regional water supply?
- A globally warmer and wetter climate will energize the global hydrologic cycle, leading to the possibility for greater storm intensity. We will investigate the hydrological and ecological repercussions of very high snowmelt runoff and summer thunderstorms.
- Warmer summers (projected by the Hadley GCM) are expected to favor increased fire outbreaks along the Colorado Front Range. What are the consequences of increased frequency and intensity of fire for annual stream flow and to flooding potential?
Program modifications and parameterization needed to implement the RHESSYS model are about 60 percent complete.
Our land-use simulator has been thoroughly parameterized and tuned for the Estes Park area.
Future Activities:
During Year 2, we will prepare manuscripts describing our work relating historic weather records to wildlife population dynamics and to visitor behavior. Drafts are now complete for two of these manuscripts, and we anticipate submission to journals before the end of the calendar year. We will invest substantial effort in developing and executing a survey to query park visitors about how their behavior might change given a range of potential effects of climate warming. The survey will be based on a series of vignettes formed from research on the human and natural system and related to scenarios based on the Hadley and CCC models. We will initiate model experiments using the SAVANNA and RHESSys simulation models. We continue our collaboration with the Stakeholder Advisory Committee in anticipation of our final workshop during Year 3 of the project.Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 16 publications | 8 publications in selected types | All 8 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Weiler S, Loomis J, Richardson R, Shwiff S. Driving regional economic models with a statistical model: hypotheses testing for economic impact analysis. Review of Regional Studies 2002;32(1):97-111. |
R827449 (2000) R827449 (2001) R827449 (2002) R827449 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
watershed, global climate, ecosystem, terrestrial, aquatic, habitat, integrated assessment, public policy, contingent valuation, survey, preferences, ecology, social science, modeling, surveys, climate models, western., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Hydrology, Ecology, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, biodiversity, gateway communities, terrestrial ecosystems, economic models, water quality, biotic response, aquatic ecology, landscape characterization, land useProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.