Abstract |
Conventional methods of forecasting future demand for municipal water supply were found to give undue emphasis to historical rates of use, to ignore many relevant factors, and to fail to distinguish between components of use. This study is concerned with only the residential part of urban water use, the components of which, such as lawn sprinkling, toilet flushing, washing machines or air conditioning, are discussed in turn with consideration given to price sensitivity and possible future trends. A forecasting model or framework for analysis is proposed. Six factors influencing future water use are: regulations on the water use of appliances; the type of pricing policy that is adopted; policy on public education; the housing patterns of the future; the cost of supply; changes in the technology of use. Two or three outcomes are considered for each of these factors and combinations of these outcomes form alternative descriptions of the future. Four case studies are used (Baltimore, Kansas City, Phoenix and Seattle) and, for each case, a 'baseline' estimate is made which reflects past trends. (Author) |