Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity
EPA Grant Number: R834195Title: Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity
Investigators: Knouft, Jason
Institution: Saint Louis University - Main Campus
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2011 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Amount: $246,147
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Watersheds , Aquatic Ecosystems , Water
Objective:
The primary objective of this research has been to predict the impacts of current and future climate on the hydrology and aquatic biodiversity in United States river drainages, with a primary focus on watersheds in Illinois and Alabama. To achieve this objective, data from regionally downscaled global climate models have been integrated with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model and species distribution models to test three general hypotheses: 1) climate data, when integrated with landscape hydrologic models, can accurately predict variation in current and future flow regimes; 2) species distribution models, when used in conjunction with hydrologic model outputs and species distribution data, can accurately predict current and future distributions of aquatic taxa; and 3) predicted changes in climate will differentially impact aquatic taxa, with some species experiencing decreases in future habitat availability while other species experience increases in the amount of available habitat.
The primary objectives of the research have been addressed by integrating data derived from nine regionally downscaled global climate models including three emissions scenarios over two time periods (2051-2060 and 2086-2095) with the landscape-based SWAT hydrologic model to predict changes in flow characteristics in river drainages in Illinois and Alabama based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data then have been used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks in Illinois and Alabama using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent) as well as other statistical techniques. The impact of hydrologic variation on fishes also has been assessed in major river drainages in different regions of the United States.
An additional objective of this research was added to investigate fish responses to temperature and flow regimes across the geographic range of two species (Pimephales notatus and Etheostoma nigrum). Resting metabolic rate (RMR) and swimming performance were measured at 9°C, 18°C, and 27°C in the lab at Saint Louis University from individual fish from 10 populations collected throughout the ranges of P. notatus in the United States. Swimming performance (SP) was measured at 9°C, 18°C, and 27°C in the lab at Saint Louis University from individual fish from ten populations collected throughout the ranges of E. nigrum. The goal of this aspect of the research was to better understand how local populations of aquatic taxa will respond to changes in temperature and flow patterns in the aquatic environment caused by predicted changes in climate.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Climate Change, hydrology, and species distributions in Illinois watersheds
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated using distributed streamflow data from 1978-2009, and used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on future streamflow (2051-2060 and 2086-2095) for the Rock River (RRW), Illinois River (IRW), Kaskaskia River (KRW), and Wabash River (WRW) watersheds in the Midwestern United States, primarily in Illinois. The potential impacts of climate change on future water resources were assessed using SWAT streamflow simulations driven by projections from nine global climate models (GCM) under three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1). Compared with past streamflow records, predicted future streamflow based on climate change scenarios in all watersheds is expected to increase in the winter but decrease in the summer. According to 26 GCM projections, overall annual streamflows from 2051-2060 (2086-2095) are projected to decrease up to 45.2% (61.3%), 48.7% (49.8%), 48.7% (56.6%), and 41.1% (44.6%) in the RRW, IRW, KRW, and WRW, respectively. In addition, under the projected changes in climate, intra- and inter-annual streamflow variability generally does not increase over time. Results suggest that increased temperature could change the rate of evapotranspiration and the form of precipitation, subsequently influencing monthly streamflow patterns. Moreover, the spatially varying pattern of streamflow variability under future climate conditions suggests different buffering capabilities among regions.
Current and future flow estimates from each watershed then were integrated with locality data from 87 species of fishes (18,313 localities), 60 species of mussels (10,348 localities), and 4 species of crayfishes (329 localities) and Maxent, an ecological niche modeling algorithm to predict the distribution of suitable flow habitat for each species. Results indicate that the distributional extents of suitable flow habitat for fishes will tend to decrease as climate changes, but the decrease will depend on the climate scenario used to predict flows. For example, the lowest flow scenario predicts a 47% average decrease in suitable fish flow habitat while the highest flow scenario predicts a 12% average decrease in available flow habitat. Conversely, the distributional extents of suitable mussel flow habitat will tend to increase across all flow scenarios. For example, the lowest flow scenario predicts a 30% average increase in available mussel flow habitat while the highest flow scenario predicts a 90% average increase in available flow habitat.
To investigate the potential impact of changes in flow regimes on local species richness, we developed a regression model that predicted fish species richness from field-collected data at 573 sites in Illinois across the study watersheds. This model then was used to predict species richness at the same sites using flow data from 2051-2061. On average, maximum potential fish species richness is predicted to decrease across all scenarios in the future. However, decreases depend on the scenario used to predict future flows. For example, the lowest flow scenario predicts a 5.9% average decrease in fish species richness across sites, the median flow scenario predicts a 3.5% average decrease in fish species richness, and the highest flow scenario predicts a 1.8% average decrease in fish species richness.
Climate change, hydrology, and species distributions in the Mobile River watershed in Alabama
This portion of the research predicted spatial streamflow variation under various climate change scenarios in the Alabama River watershed (ARW) and the Tombigbee River watershed (TRW), which are nested within the Mobile River watershed (MRW) and located primarily in Alabama. Similar to the Illinois watersheds, the impacts of climate change on hydrology were assessed using SWAT with nine GCMs under three SRES scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1). According to 26 GCM projections, annual streamflows from 2051-2060 (2086-2095) are predicted to decrease up to 50.38% (69.38%) and 50.04% (74.30%) in the ARW and TRW, respectively. In addition, streamflow variability is projected to increase over time under the projected changes in climate. The results suggest that greater evapotranspiration, induced by warmer temperatures, is the dominant factor responsible for the overall decreased streamflow. Further, different watersheds may have varied capacities for adapting to changes in climate because of the existence of different dominant hydrologic processes within various areas of the MRW.
Current and future flow estimates from each watershed then were integrated with locality data from 103 species of fishes (20,200 localities), 16 species of mussels (2,004 localities), and 12 species of crayfishes (1,142 localities) and Maxent, an ecological niche modeling algorithm. Results indicate that the majority of the distributional extents of suitable flow habitat for fishes will decrease as climate changes. For example, the lowest, median, and highest flow scenarios predict that 63%, 63%, and 62%, respectively, of fish species in the MRW will experience a decrease in suitable flow habitat. However, equal numbers of species of crayfishes will experience decreases or increases in the distributional extents of suitable flow habitat across the lowest, median, and highest flow scenarios.
Hydrology and fish species richness in local communities across the United States
Local assemblage structure is presumably regulated by the regional species pool as well as by local factors. The relationships of the regional species pool and local hydrological characteristics to local species richness of North American freshwater fishes were examined using data sets collected during the National Water Quality Assessment program conducted by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and hydrological data from USGS stream gauges. Daily discharge and regional and local species richness data were assembled from 41 stream localities across the United States and used to predict local species richness, based on regional species richness, mean discharge and hydrological characteristics quantified by nine variables characterizing flow variability. Species richness at each site was calculated for the entire assemblage as well as within the four most species-rich families in the data set (Catostomidae, Centrarchidae, Cyprinidae and Percidae). Local species richness was best predicted by a combination of regional species richness and discharge magnitude when all species were considered. Local richness in Centrarchidae and Cyprinidae was positively correlated with temporal flow variability as well as high and low flow duration, respectively, while richness in Catostomidae and Percidae tended to be associated with discharge volume. These results suggest the importance of the combined influences of the regional species pool and local hydrological characteristics on local richness in freshwater fishes, with variation in richness within each family predicted by different characteristics of flow regimes.
Population responses to flow and temperature regimes in freshwater fishes
Predicted changes in climate may affect aquatic taxa through metabolic impacts associated with increasing water temperatures. Understanding the potential effects of climate change on aquatic species requires an approach that integrates physiological trait data and local environmental conditions among populations. We investigated whether variation in routine metabolic rate (RMR) is correlated with water temperature among 10 sites across the geographic range of Pimephales notatus, a common North American freshwater fish species. RMR data were collected from each population, which were acclimatized to three temperature treatments (9°C, 18°C, and 27°C) and then correlated with thermal measures at collection locations. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relationships between thermal measures and both RMR and thermal sensitivity of RMR (Q10). RMR at 9°C was negatively correlated with weekly low temperature. RMR was negatively correlated with weekly high temperature and mass at 18°C but, positively correlated with these variables at 27°C. Thermal sensitivity was negatively correlated with weekly high temperature, indicating temperature has a larger effect on RMR for low latitude populations than high latitude populations over the tested temperature range. These results suggest that small, or modest, increases in water temperature may induce large changes to energy requirements for low latitude populations, potentially altering future distributions of aquatic taxa.
To assess the relationships between stream flows and morphology in fishes, body shapes of populations of two widely distributed species, Etheostoma nigrum and Pimephales notatus, were correlated with flow measures (water velocity and discharge) across the range of each species in the United States. Body shape of both species was correlated with flow measurements; however, the specific flow variables predicting body shape varied between species. Etheostoma nigrum body shape was correlated with local scale water velocity while P. notatus body shape was correlated with regional scale discharge. A differential response to flow measurements in these species suggests that body shape can be the target of selective pressures from processes derived at different environmental scales.
Body shape and water temperature also were expected to be important predictors of swim performance among populations of P. notatus. Based on results from swim performance trials conducted at multiple acclimation temperatures in the lab, body shape and temperature are indeed correlated with critical swim performance. In addition, P. notatus does not exhibit thermal sensitivity in swim performance. For example, critical swim speeds increased with increasing acclimation temperature. Increased temperatures tend to increase swim performance up to some thermal threshold at which point steep decreases in performance occur. However, there was no decrease in swimming performance at the highest acclimation temperature treatment, presumably because trials did not reach critical thermal limits reported for this species (31.9°C).
Conclusions:
Predicted changes in climate are expected to have dramatic impacts on physical processes and the distribution of biodiversity on all parts of the planet. Results from this research suggest that populations of freshwater species are locally adapted to water temperature and flow regimes. Unfortunately, predicted changes in climate will have significant effects on the hydrology of aquatic systems in Illinois and Alabama, and likely impact local population persistence as well as the distribution and diversity of species in these systems.
Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 28 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Beachum CE, Michel MJ, Knouft JH. Differential responses of body shape to local and reach scale stream flow in two freshwater fish species. Ecology of Freshwater Fish 2016;25(3):446-454. |
R834195 (Final) |
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Chien H, Yeh PJ-F, Knouft JH. Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in agricultural watersheds of the Midwestern United States. Journal of Hydrology 2013;491:73-88. |
R834195 (2010) R834195 (2011) R834195 (2012) R834195 (2013) R834195 (Final) |
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Ficklin DL, Barnhart BL, Knouft JH, Stewart IT, Maurer EP, Letsinger SL, Whittaker GW. Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2014;18(12):4897-4912. |
R834195 (Final) R834191 (Final) |
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Michel MJ, Chien H, Beachum CE, Bennett MG, Knouft JH. Climate change, hydrology, and fish morphology: predictions using phenotype-environment associations. Climatic Change 2017;140(3-4):563-576. |
R834195 (Final) |
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Niu SQ, Franczyk MP, Knouft JH. Regional species richness, hydrological characteristics and the local species richness of assemblages of North American stream fishes. Freshwater Biology 2012;57(11):2367-2377. |
R834195 (2011) R834195 (2013) R834195 (Final) |
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Schonhuth S, Beachum CE, Knouft JH, Mayden RL. Phylogeny and genetic variation within the widely distributed Bluntnose Minnow, Pimephales notatus (Cyprinidae), in North America. Zootaxa 2016;4168(1):38-60. |
R834195 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Geographic information systems, hydrology, climate change, biodiversity, species distribution modeling;, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, AtmosphereRelevant Websites:
Aquatic Ecology, Hydrology, and Global Change ExitProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2013 Progress Report
- 2012 Progress Report
- 2011 Progress Report
- 2010 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
6 journal articles for this project