Grantee Research Project Results
2012 Progress Report: Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity
EPA Grant Number: R834195Title: Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity
Investigators: Knouft, Jason
Institution: Saint Louis University - Main Campus
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2011 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 1, 2011 through July 31,2012
Project Amount: $246,147
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Watersheds , Aquatic Ecosystems , Water
Objective:
The primary objectives of this research are unchanged since the last project review. Our goal is to predict the impacts of climate change on aquatic biodiversity in United States river drainages. To achieve this objective, data from regionally downscaled and bias-corrected global climate models are integrated with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model and an ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent) to test three general hypotheses: (1) climate data, when integrated with landscape hydrologic models, can accurately predict variation in current and future flow regimes in United States river drainages; (2) ecological niche modeling algorithms, when used in conjunction with hydrologic model outputs and species distribution data, can accurately predict current and future distributions of aquatic taxa; and (3) predicted changes in climate will differentially impact aquatic taxa, with some species experiencing decreases in future habitat availability while other species experience increases in the amount of available habitat.
The objectives of this research have been addressed through the integration of data derived from nine regionally downscaled and bias-corrected global climate models, including three emissions scenarios over two time periods (2051-2060 and 2086-2095) with the landscape-scale SWAT hydrologic model to predict changes in flow characteristics in river drainages in Illinois and Alabama based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic estimates are then used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks in Illinois and Alabama using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). These regions will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades.
An additional objective of this research was added (via an approved budget revision) to investigate fish responses to temperature and flow regimes across the geographic range of two species (Pimephales notatus and Etheostoma nigrum). Resting metabolic rate (RMR) and swimming performance have been measured at 9°C, 18°C, and 27°C in the lab at Saint Louis University from individuals from 10 populations collected throughout the range of P. notatus in the United States. Swimming performance (SP) has been measured at 9°C, 18°C, and 27°C in the lab at Saint Louis University from individuals from 10 populations collected throughout the ranges of E. nigrum. The goal of this aspect of the research is to better understand how local populations of aquatic taxa may respond to variation in temperature and flow patterns in the aquatic environment caused by predicted changes in climate.
Progress Summary:
We have used the SWAT model to predict current and future hydrology in the four major watersheds in Illinois (Rock, Kaskaskia, Illinois, and Wabash) and in the Mobile River basin in Alabama. Future predictions are based on nine regionally downscaled global climate models including three emissions scenarios over two time periods (2051-2060 and 2086-2095). Calibration and validation using contemporary climate and streamflow data indicate accurate predictions of spatial and temporal variation in streamflow within watersheds, suggesting that multi-site calibration is necessary to accurately predict spatial variation in streamflow. Predictions based on future climate scenarios indicate that the percentage of streamflow will decrease in the future in both Illinois and Alabama watersheds due to decreases in precipitation and increases in evapotranspiration associated with increasing temperatures. In addition, intra-annual variability in streamflow is expected to decrease. A manuscript describing the findings from our Illinois work has been revised and is currently in review at the Journal of Hydrology. A second manuscript describing our work in Alabama will be submitted to the Journal of Water and Climate Change in January.
We also have integrated species distribution data for fishes (87 species), crayfishes (4 species), and mussels (60 species) with hydrologic predictions in Illinois and expect to do so for Alabama in early 2013. Results indicate that the lowest flow scenario from our 26 climate change scenarios will result in, on average, an almost 50% decrease in hydrologic habitat area for fishes. In the highest flow scenario (which is closest to current flows), results indicate a 25% decrease in hydrologic habitat area for fishes. However, results indicate that the lowest flow scenario will result in, on average, a 25% increase in hydrologic habitat area for mussels. In the highest flow scenario, results indicate an almost doubling of hydrologic habitat area for mussels. In addition, one manuscript is in revision focusing on the relationships between Illinois stream fish morphology, stream flow, and the potential impacts of climate change on this relationship. Specifically, we tested for phenotype-environment associations by correlating body size and morphometric variables of fishes with estimates of stream flow obtained from landscape-scale hydrologic models and in situ stream gauges. We then used future estimates of stream flow provided by our SWAT hydrologic models to predict future phenotypes. Two species (Percina maculata, Noturus flavus) exhibited significant associations between body shape and flow, while two species (Cyprinella lutrensis, N. flavus) exhibited significant associations between body size and flow. Additional work on this project since our last report includes the development of simulations based on a quantitative genetics model that allows us to predict which populations should be able to adapt to climate-induced changes in flow.
Mr. Collin Beachum is a graduate student in the Knouft lab. He is currently supported by Saint Louis University with a Teaching Assistantship while working on the investigation of fish responses to temperature and flow regimes across the geographic range of two species (Pimephales notatus and Etheostoma nigrum). During the initial year of the project, we collected individuals of each species from 20 populations across the range of each species in the United States. This sampling extended north to south from North Dakota to Alabama and east to west from Pennsylvania to Kansas. Individuals from each population were held in the aquatic lab at Saint Louis University. Since our last report, we have measured RMR and SP for individuals from each population of P. notatus at 9°C, 18°C, and 27°C. Results indicate that individuals collected from higher latitudes tend to have higher metabolic rates at low temperatures compared to individuals collected from lower latitudes based on the 9°C acclimation temperature results. However, there is no relationship between latitude and RMR at the 18°C and 27°C acclimation temperatures. Swimming performance studies have been completed and we are in the process of analyzing the data.
Future Activities:
Our current and future activities are focused on predicting species responses to future hydrologic characteristics in Illinois and Alabama watersheds, and various watersheds around the United States using hydrologic date generated by the SWAT model. We have completed preliminary species distribution predictions for Illinois taxa. In addition, we are currently analyzing RMR and swim performance results for populations of P. notatus and E. nigrum. Several manuscripts are planned as well as meeting presentations.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 28 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Chien H, Yeh PJ-F, Knouft JH. Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in agricultural watersheds of the Midwestern United States. Journal of Hydrology 2013;491:73-88. |
R834195 (2010) R834195 (2011) R834195 (2012) R834195 (2013) R834195 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Watersheds, ecology, hydrology, GIS, geography, fishes, crayfishes, mussels, species distribution models, climate change, aquatic biodiversity, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, AtmosphereProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.