Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity
EPA Grant Number: R834195Title: Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity
Investigators: Knouft, Jason
Institution: Saint Louis University - Main Campus
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2011 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 1, 2009 through July 31,2010
Project Amount: $246,147
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Watersheds , Aquatic Ecosystems , Water
Objective:
The primary objective of this research, unchanged from the initial proposal submission, is to predict the impacts of climate change on aquatic biodiversity in U.S. river drainages. Global climate models are integrated with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model and an ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent) to test three general hypotheses: 1) climate data, when integrated with landscape hydrologic models, can accurately predict variation in current and future flow regimes in U.S. river drainages; 2) ecological niche modeling algorithms, when used in conjunction with hydrologic model outputs and species distribution data, can accurately predict current and future distributions of aquatic taxa; and 3) predicted changes in climate will differentially impact aquatic taxa, with some species experiencing decreases in future habitat availability while other species experience increases in the amount of available habitat.
The objectives of this aspect of the research are being addressed by integrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models (CCCMA, CSIRO, HADCM3) at three time periods (2020, 2050, 2080) with the landscape-based SWAT hydrologic model to predict changes in flow characteristics in U.S. river drainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data then will be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks in Illinois and Alabama using a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). These regions will serve as models to understand the potential impacts of climate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climate change on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in different regions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics in each region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict the response of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regional differences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.
An additional objective of this research was added (via an approved budget revision) to investigate fish responses to temperature and flow regimes across the geographic range of two species (Pimephales notatus and Etheostoma nigrum). Resting metabolic rate (RMR) and swimming performance (SP) are being measured at various temperatures in the lab at Saint Louis University from individuals from up to 20 populations collected throughout the ranges of each species in the United States. The goal of this aspect of the research is to better understand how local populations of aquatic taxa will respond to changes in temperature and flow patterns in the aquatic environment caused by predicted changes in climate.
Progress Summary:
Dr. Huicheng Chien was hired as a postdoctoral researcher on this project. At this time, we have used the SWAT model to predict current and future hydrology in the four major watersheds in Illinois. Future predictions are based on three climate models (CCCMA, CSIRO, HADCM3) at three time periods (2020, 2050, 2080) under two emission scenarios (a2a, b2a). Calibration and validation using contemporary climate and streamflow data indicate accurate predictions of spatial and temporal variation in streamflow within watersheds, suggesting that multi-site calibration is necessary to accurately predict spatial variation in streamflow. Predictions based on future climate scenarios indicate that the percentage of streamflow attributable to precipitation will decrease in 2020, 2050, and 2080 compared with the current water budget; however, intraannual variability in streamflow is expected to increase. Results indicate that increased temperature is the dominant factor causing the decrease in streamflow. Moreover, the varying spatial and temporal distribution of the coefficient of variation in streamflow based on future climate predictions suggests that different regions have differing buffering capabilities. We also have completed the prediction of current hydrologic patterns in the major watersheds in Alabama using the same approach.
We are in the process of integrating species distribution data for fishes, crayfishes, and mussels with hydrologic predictions in Illinois and Alabama. One manuscript has been submitted focusing on the relationships between Illinois stream fish morphology, stream flow, and the potential impacts of climate change on this relationship. Specifically, we tested for phenotype-environment associations by correlating body size and morphometric variables of fishes with estimates of stream flow obtained from landscape-scale hydrologic models and in situ stream gauges. We then used future estimates of stream flow provided by our SWAT hydrologic models to predict future phenotypes. Two species (Percina maculata, Noturus flavus) exhibited significant associations between body shape and flow, while two species (Cyprinella lutrensis, N. flavus) exhibited significant associations between body size and flow. A comparison of contemporary and future phenotypes revealed that fish populations would need to undergo substantial changes to body shape to attain phenotypes that would be adaptive in environments with reduced stream flow, as predicted by the hydrologic models. Additionally, we predicted a homogenization of phenotypes among the fish populations due to the basin-wide reduction in flow.
Mr. Collin Beachum is a graduate student in the Knouft lab. He currently is supported by Saint Louis University with a Teaching Assistantship while working on the investigation of fish responses to temperature and flow regimes across the geographic range of two species (Pimephales notatus and Etheostoma nigrum). We have collected individuals of each species from 20 populations across the range of each species in the United States. This sampling extended north to south from North Dakota to Alabama and east to west from Pennsylvania to Kansas. Individuals from each population are being held in the aquatic lab at Saint Louis University. We are in the process of measuring RMR and SP for individuals from each population at varying temperatures (8°C, 15°C, 22°C, 29°C). Initial results indicate that individuals collected from higher latitudes tend to have higher metabolic rates at low temperatures compared to individuals collected from lower latitudes. Results from this aspect of the study will have important implications for our understanding of local responses to changes in climate.
Future Activities:
Our current and future activities are focused on predicting future hydrologic characteristics in Alabama watersheds, and various watersheds around the United States using the SWAT model. These hydrologic predictions will be integrated with species distribution data and ecological niche modeling algorithms to predict potential species distributions based on various climate change scenarios. We currently are in the process of generating these species distribution predictions for Illinois taxa. In addition, we currently are quantifying RMR and SP at various temperatures for populations of P. notatus and E. nigrum. Several manuscripts are planned as well as meeting presentations. I also have been invited to present results from our work in the Centre for Global Change Science Distinguished Lecturer Series at the University of Toronto.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 28 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Chien H, Yeh PJ-F, Knouft JH. Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in agricultural watersheds of the Midwestern United States. Journal of Hydrology 2013;491:73-88. |
R834195 (2010) R834195 (2011) R834195 (2012) R834195 (2013) R834195 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
watersheds, ecology, hydrology, GIS, geography, fishes, crayfishes, mussels, species distribution models, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere
Relevant Websites:
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.