Grantee Research Project Results
2013 Progress Report: Impact of Climate Change and Variability on the Nation's Water Quality andEcosystem State
EPA Grant Number: R834187Title: Impact of Climate Change and Variability on the Nation's Water Quality andEcosystem State
Investigators: Vörösmarty, Charles J. , Clements, William , Poff, N. LeRoy , Fekete, Balazs , Wollheim, Wil
Current Investigators: Vörösmarty, Charles J. , Clements, William , Poff, N. LeRoy , Wollheim, Wil , Fekete, Balazs , Green, Mark , Gettel, Gretchen M.
Institution: City College of the City University of New York , Colorado State University , University of New Hampshire
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 2009 through September 30, 2012 (Extended to September 30, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2012 through September 30,2013
Project Amount: $799,554
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Watersheds , Aquatic Ecosystems , Water
Objective:
The primary aim of this project is to develop a national-scale, multi-constituent biogeochemistry model by using new and existing modules to compare regional sensitivities of water quality and aquatic ecosystem habitat to climate change and variability forced by regional, downscaled GCM ensemble outputs.
Progress Summary:
• Improvements to Framework, River Network and Corresponding Elevation Data Bases: Elaboration of FrAMES (Framework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System), including clear heritage and version-tracking to facilitate multi-scenario modeling. Reconstitution and defragmentation of HydroSHEDS to 3’ and 6’ (L/L) resolution were conducted to serve as core calculation structure for hydrologic variables and for CSU ecological test sites.
• Reservoir Operations: Development of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method to compute dam/reservoir impact on flow regime. Evaluation is ongoing.
• Downscaled Climate Scenario Data: Incorporation of NARCCAP downscaled, regional, ensemble climate change simulations, which serve as forcings for the hydrologic simulations. Participation in Inter-sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise from which 5th IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) selected GCMs scenarios (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, GFDL-ESM2M) for historical and future climate change was staged (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP 8.5) and hydrologic simulations run.
• Development of National Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF) Geospatial Database: The spatial distribution of wastewater treatment facilities in the United States in 1984 and 2004 (n>16,000) was mapped according to data acquired from the EPA Clean Watersheds Needs Surveys (CWNS) database and intecompared. Results showed that the substantial upgrade in the treatment levels of existing WWTFs did not translate uniformly into reduced loading to receiving waters, due to increases in populations served.
• Development of Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (TP2M): Model has been developed and validated. Dynamic simulation of water withdrawals, water consumption, and return flows of water and thermal pollution at individual power plants now can be mapped as regional patterns of potential thermal pollution. Rivers are effective dissipation of heat loads with both re-equilibration with the atmosphere and significant translation of heat to the coastal zone. Clean Water Act amendments aimed at reducing impacts on aquatic life also have potential beneficiary effects on the collective power production of multiple stations, by lowering plant-to-plant thermal interference.
• Nitrogen and Carbon Flux Modeling: FrAMES was used as the testbed for development of nutrient biogeochemistry models. Results show a decreasing efficiency of N loss through denitrification as a function of concentration, with an overall effect that approximately one-quarter of the contemporary N flux increase is due to net processing efficiency losses. Time series of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in the Mississippi leached from terrestrial biome show good correspondence with a processing and transport model, but need to be improved by including wetlands, aquatic production and photodegradation.
• Stream and Habitat Assessment: We combined 1639 sites from the EPA Wade-able Stream Assessment and 1536 sites from the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAQWA) containing macroinvertebrate benthos samples. We are using these biological data to derive multiple community-based indices and metrics that reflect stream condition. We hypothesize that the statistics of daily flow and temperature will be predictive of the taxonomic and functional characteristics of stream macroinvertebrate communities. Preliminary analysis of 256 EPA sites reveals that streams with more unstable flow regimes (reflected in CV of flow) have more species with fast development times, greater generations per year, very short life spans, high dispersal, higher propensity to drift, and small size, all traits of organisms adapted to extreme conditions in streams.
Future Activities:
The overall project approach develops and applies a framework-based modeling system to predict spatially and temporally varying hydrologic and multi-constituent water quality variables. Two major value-added science products that emerged from this project include: 1) incorporation of a new module for aquatic ecosystem state, plus associated indicators and 2) ingestion and use of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) downscaled, regional ensemble forecasts and AR5-RCP future climate drivers, from which we are performing a systematic set of tests on climate extremes from the contemporary to year 2070.
Specific planned activities for reporting period 2013– 2014 include the following:
Data
Complete contemporary time series for baseline runs.
Utilize NARCCAP ensemble outputs.
Continue staging relevant cal/val data (USGS, EMAP, NAWQA).
Configure scenarios, as needed, of future land use, engineering, and pollutant load.
FrAMES Modules
Finalize enhanced carbon dynamics model (land-to-aquatic).
Perform habitat/ecosystem state model and indicator calculations.
Run, validate, and analyze future scenarios.
Product Distribution and Outreach
Establish dedicated project website.
Populate website with key input/output data sets.
Prepare/execute mid-project consultation with management experts.
Continue preparation/publication of scientific papers.
References:
Beaulieu, J.; Hamilton, S.; Wollheim, W.; Hall, R.; Mulholland, P. J.; Ashkenas, L. R.; Cooper, L. W.; Dahm, C. N.; Dodds, W.; Grimm, N. B.; Johnson, S. L.; McDowell, W. H.; Poole, G. C.; Valett, H. M.; Arango, C. P.; Bernot, M. J.; Burgin, A. J.; Crenshaw, C. L.; Helton, A. M.; Johnson, L. T.; O'Brien, J. M.; Potter, J. D.; Sheibley, R. W.; Sobota, D. J. and Thomas, S. M.: Nitrous oxide emission from denitrification in stream and river networks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, , 108 , 214-219, 2011.
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Döll, P. E., and B. Lehner: Validation of a new 30-min drainage direction map. Journal of Hydrology, 258, 214–231, 2002.
Fekete, B. M.; Vörösmarty, C. J. and Lammers, R. B.: Scaling gridded river networks for macro-scale hydrology: Development and analysis and control of error, Water Resources Research, , 37 , 1955-1968 , 2001.
Fekete, B. M.; Vörösmarty, C. J.; Roads, J. and Willmott, C.: Uncertainties in Precipitation and their Impacts on Runoff Estimates, Journal of Climatology, , 17 , 294-303, 2004.
Fekete, B. M.; Wisser, D.; Kroeze, C.; Mayorga, E.; Bouwman, L.; Wollheim, W. M. and Vörösmarty, C. J.: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario drivers (1970-2050): climate and hydrological alterations, Global Biochemical Cycles, 24 2010.
Fekete, B. M., R. B. Lammers, A. M. MacDonald, L. C. Bowling, and R. Lawford: River Discharge [State of the Climate in 2009]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, S35, 2010.
Fekete, B. M., and A. M. MacDonald: River Discharge [State of the Climate in 2010]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, S46–S48, 2011.
Hempel, S., K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek (2013), A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach, Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 4(1), 49–92, doi:10.5194/esdd-4-49-2013. [online] Available from: http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/4/49/2013/ (Accessed 15 February 2013.)
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Pellerin, B. A., W. M. Wollheim, X. H. Feng, and C. J. Vorosmarty: The application of electrical conductivity as a tracer for hydrograph separation in urban catchments, Hydrol. Processes, 22(12), 1810-1818, 2007.
Raymond, P. A. and J. E. Saiers. Event controlled DOC export from forested watersheds. Biogeochemistry DOI: 10.1007/s10533-010-9416-7, 2010.
Rychtecka, M.Spatio-Temporal Impact of Wastewater Point Sources on Nitrogen Pollution in U.S. Watersheds. M.S. Thesis, The City College of New York, ) 2011.
Mulholland, P. J.; Helton, A. M.; Poole, G. C.; Hall, R. O.; Hamilton, S. K.; Peterson, B. J.; Tank, J. L.; Ashkenas, R. L.; Cooper, L. W.; Dahm, C. N.; Dodds, W. K.; Findlay, S. E. G.; Gregory, S. V.; Grimm, N. B.; Johnson, S. L.; McDowell, W. H.; Meyer, J. L.; Valett, H. M.; Webster, J. R.; Arango, C. P.; Beaulieu, J. J.; Bernot, M. J.; Burgin, A. J.; Crenshaw, C. L.; Johnson, L. T.; Niederlehner, B. R.; O'Brien, J. M.; Potter, J. D.; Sheibley, R. W.; Sobota, D. J. & Thomas, S. M.: Stream denitrification across biomes and its response to anthropogenic nitrate loading, Nature, 452 , 202-205, 2008.
Poff, N. L., J. D. Olden, N. K. M. Vieira, D. S. Finn, M. P. Simmons, and B. C. Kondratieff. Functional trait niches of North American lotic insects: traits-based ecological applications in light of phylogenetic relationships. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 25:730-755, 2006.
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Wisser, D.; Fekete, B. M.; Vörösmarty, C. J. and Schumann, A. H.: Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: A contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H), Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14 , 1-24, 2010a.
Wisser, D.; Frolking, S.; Douglas, E.; Fekete, B. M.; Schuman, A. H. and Vörösmarty, C. J.: The significance of local water resources captured in small reservoirs for crop production - a global-scale analysis: Journal of Hydrology, , 384 , 264-275, 2010b.
Wollheim, W. M.; Peterson, B. J.; Vörösmarty, C. J.; Hopkinson, C. S. and Thomas, S. A.: Dynamics of N removal over annual time scales in a suburban river network, Biogeosciences, , G03038 , doi:10.1029/2007JG000660, 2008a.
Wollheim, W. M.; Vörösmarty, C. J.; Bouwman, A. F.; Green, P. A.; Harrison, J.; Linder, E.; Peterson, B. J.; Seitzinger, S. and Syvitski, J. P. M.: Global N removal by freshwater aquatic systems: a spatially distributed, within-basin approach, Global Biochemical Cycles, GB2026 , doi:10.1029/2007GB002963, 2008b.
Journal Articles on this Report : 11 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 69 publications | 13 publications in selected types | All 12 journal articles |
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Alexander RB, Bohlke JK, Boyer EW, David MB, Harvey JW, Mulholland PJ, Seitzinger SP, Tobias CR, Tonitto C, Wollheim WM. Dynamic modeling of nitrogen losses in river networks unravels the coupled effects of hydrological and biogeochemical processes. Biogeochemistry 2009;93(1-2):91-116. |
R834187 (2010) R834187 (2011) R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) R833261 (2008) R833261 (2009) R833261 (2010) R833261 (Final) |
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Bain DJ, Hale RL, Wollheim WM. Hotbeds of biogeochemical diversity:insights from urban long-term ecological research sites. Elements 2012;8(6):435-438. |
R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) |
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Beaulieu JJ, Tank JL, Hamilton SK, Wollheim WM, Hall Jr. RO, Mulholland PJ, Peterson BJ, Ashkenas LR, Cooper LW, Dahm CN, Dodds WK, Grimm NB, Johnson SL, McDowell WH, Poole GC, Valett HM, Arango CP, Bernot MJ, Burgin AJ, Crenshaw CL, Helton AM, Johnson LT, O'Brien JM, Potter JD, Sheibley RW, Sobota DJ, Thomas SM. Nitrous oxide emission from denitrification in stream and river networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2011;108(1):214-219. |
R834187 (2010) R834187 (2011) R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) R833261 (2010) R833261 (Final) |
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Green MB, Wollheim WM, Basu NB, Gettel G, Rao PS, Morse N, Stewart R. Effective denitrification scales predictably with water residence time across diverse systems. Nature Precedings 2009;3520.1. |
R834187 (2010) R834187 (2011) R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) R833261 (2009) R833261 (2010) R833261 (Final) |
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Hale RL, Hoover JH, Wollheim WM, Vorosmarty CJ. History of nutrient inputs to the northeastern United States, 1930–2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2013;27(2):578-591. |
R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) |
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Harrison JA, Maranger RJ, Alexander RB, Giblin AE, Jacinthe P-A, Mayorga E, Seitzinger SP, Sobota DJ, Wollheim WM. The regional and global significance of nitrogen removal in lakes and reservoirs. Biogeochemistry 2009;93(1-2):143-157. |
R834187 (2010) R834187 (2011) R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) R833261 (2008) R833261 (2009) R833261 (2010) R833261 (Final) |
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Helton AM, Poole GC, Meyer JL, Wollheim WM, Peterson BJ, Mulholland PJ, Bernhardt ES, Stanford JA, Arango C, Ashkenas LR, Cooper LW, Dodds WK, Gregory SV, Hall Jr. RO, Hamilton SK, Johnson SL, McDowell WH, Potter JD, Tank JL, Thomas SM, Valett HM, Webster JR, Zeglin L. Thinking outside the channel: modeling nitrogen cycling in networked river ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2011;9(4):229-238. |
R834187 (2010) R834187 (2011) R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) R833261 (2010) R833261 (Final) |
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Miara A, Vorosmarty CJ. A dynamic model to assess tradeoffs in power production and riverine ecosystem protection. Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts 2013;15(6):1113-1126. |
R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) |
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Miara A, Vorosmarty CJ, Stewart RJ, Wollheim WM, Rosenzweig B. Riverine ecosystem services and the thermoelectric sector:strategic issues facing the Northeastern United States. Environmental Research Letters 2013;8(2):025017 (11 pp.). |
R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) |
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Stewart RJ, Wollheim WM, Miara A, Vorosmarty CJ, Fekete B, Lammers RB, Rosenzweig B. Horizontal cooling towers: riverine ecosystem services and the fate of thermoelectric heat in the contemporary Northeast US. Environmental Research Letters 2013;8(2):025010. |
R834187 (2012) R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) |
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Wollheim WM, Green MB, Pellerin BA, Morse NB, Hopkinson CS. Causes and consequences of ecosystem service regionalization in a coastal suburban watershed. Estuaries and Coasts 2015;38(Suppl 1):19-34. |
R834187 (2013) R834187 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
regionalization, climate change/variability, hydrology, aquatic habitat, indicators, water quality, risk assessment, climate models, RFA, Air, climate change, environmental monitoring, water resources, watershed, modelingProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.