Grantee Research Project Results
2006 Progress Report: Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Air Quality Using Multi-scale Modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ System
EPA Grant Number: R830962Title: Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Air Quality Using Multi-scale Modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ System
Investigators: Lamb, Brian , Guenther, Alex , Mass, Clifford , O'Neill, Susan
Current Investigators: Lamb, Brian , Guenther, Alex , Mass, Clifford , McKenzie, Donald , Larkin, Sim , O'Neill, Susan
Institution: Washington State University , USDA , National Center for Atmospheric Research , University of Washington
Current Institution: Washington State University , National Center for Atmospheric Research , U.S. Department of Agriculture - New Orleans Laboratory , USDA , University of Washington
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to August 14, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 23, 2005 through March 22, 2006
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
In this project, we are developing a modeling program to assess global change impact on U.S. air quality by specifically answering the following questions: (1) How does global warming affect air quality on regional and urban scales? Directly through warmer temperatures? Indirectly through changes in circulation patterns and changes in land cover? (2) How does land use change due to increased urbanization, global warming, or intentional management (economic forces) affect air quality? (3) How does fire and fire management affect regional air quality and regional haze in the future? (4) What is the role of Asian emissions on US air quality and how does global change influence the impact of Asian emissions? (5) How sensitive is predicted air quality to globally forced boundary conditions (meteorological and chemical)? (6) How sensitive are air quality simulations to changes in emission scenarios, both biogenic and anthropogenic? (7) How sensitive are air quality simulations to uncertainties associated with wildfire projections and with land management scenarios?
Progress Summary:
During the third year of this research, we completed long term simulations at 36 km grid scales for the continental U.S. and are just finishing long term runs at 12 km grid scales for the Pacific Northwest. Results from recent analyses of the 36 km current and future decade simulations include the following:
- Comparison of future July conditions with current conditions indicates that U.S. ozone concentrations (hourly 95th percentile) will increase by 10 ppbv (from 70 ppbv) and hourly peak PM2.5 concentrations (95th percentile) will increase by 5.7 μg/m3 (from 20.5 μg/m3).
- For ozone, a series of attribution simulations show that changes in global chemical conditions and changes in local US anthropogenic emissions are the dominant cause of future increases in ozone levels and changes in regional meteorology due to climate change do not have a large effect.
- Increases in projected urban and agricultural land use will result in a net decrease in biogenic emission capacity even though warmer temperatures cause an increase in emission rates.
- Comparison of MM5 meteorological output with current climatology indicates that the downscaling of global PCM output produces a reasonable representation of current climate, although the PCM periodically produces unrealistically cold outbreaks during winter periods.
- Comparison of CMAQ ozone and PM2.5 concentrations with current air quality levels indicates that the model produces a reasonable representation of current conditions. In the Pacific Northwest, peak hourly ozone concentrations are somewhat underestimated, but in the northern Midwest, peak concentrations are better estimated.
- Future projections of fire emissions based upon a new Fire Scenario Builder, driven with future regional meteorology, yields higher occurrences of fire and higher pollutant emissions within western states.
A sensitivity test of the effects of widespread use of poplar plantations for carbon sequestration showed that these plantations would significantly increase isoprene emissions within the midwestern and eastern US and result in significant increases in 8-hr average ozone levels.
Future Activities:
Our primary objectives in the coming year are threefold: (1) complete the long term MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ simulations for the regional case and to analyze the results of these simulations; (2) conduct additional sensitivity simulations to help evaluate uncertainties in the analysis; and (3) compile these results in a number of papers for publication.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 32 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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McKenzie D, O’Neill SM, Larkin NK, Norheim RA. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire. Ecological Modelling 2006;199(3):278-288. |
R830962 (2006) R830962 (Final) R832277 (2005) |
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Wiedinmyer C, Quayle B, Geron C, Belote A, McKenzie D, Zhang X, O'Neill S, Wynne KK. Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling. Atmospheric Environment 2006;40(19):3419-3432. |
R830962 (2006) R830962 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
climate change, air quality, biogenic emissions, fire emissions, ozone, PM2.5, nitrogen and sulfur deposition,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Pollutants, Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, environmental measurement, meteorology, global change, ozone, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistryRelevant Websites:
http://www.nwairquest.wsu.edu ExitProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.