Grantee Research Project Results
2005 Progress Report: Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Air Quality Using Multi-scale Modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ System
EPA Grant Number: R830962Title: Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Air Quality Using Multi-scale Modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ System
Investigators: Lamb, Brian , Guenther, Alex , Mass, Clifford , MacKenzie, Donald , Larkin, Sim , O'Neill, Susan
Current Investigators: Lamb, Brian , Guenther, Alex , Mass, Clifford , McKenzie, Donald , Larkin, Sim , O'Neill, Susan
Institution: Washington State University , USDA , National Center for Atmospheric Research , University of Washington
Current Institution: Washington State University , National Center for Atmospheric Research , U.S. Department of Agriculture - New Orleans Laboratory , USDA , University of Washington
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to August 14, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 23, 2004 through March 22, 2005
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
The objective of this research project is to develop a modeling program to assess global change impact on U.S. air quality by answering the following questions:
- How does global warming affect air quality on regional and urban scales? Is it directly through warmer temperatures? Is it indirectly through changes in circulation patterns and changes in land cover?
- How does land-use change because of increased urbanization, global warming, or intentional management (economic forces) affect air quality?
- How does fire and fire management affect regional air quality and regional haze in the future?
- What is the role of Asian emissions on U.S. air quality and how does global change influence the impact of Asian emissions?
- How sensitive is predicted air quality to globally forced boundary conditions (meteorological and chemical)?
- How sensitive are air quality simulations to changes in emission scenarios, both biogenic and anthropogenic?
- How sensitive are air quality simulations to uncertainties associated with wildfire projections and with land management scenarios?
Progress Summary:
The following specific items have been accomplished thus far:
- Parallel Climate Mode (PCM) and Model for Ozone and Related Vertical Chemical Tracers (MOZART) global model output have been obtained and used to provide initial and boundary conditions for continental (36 km) Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5)/Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulations for a current decade (1990-2000). Simulations also are underway for a future decade (2045-2055).
- Analysis of the MM5 36 km simulations indicated reasonable simulation of climatology for the current decade with the exception of periodic cold outbreaks during the winter that produce temperatures too cold compared to observations. This is attributed to problems with lack of vertical resolution in the PCM global simulation.
- Anthropogenic, biogenic, and fire emissions were compiled using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Emissions Inventory 1999 data, the Model of the Exchange of Gases between the Atmosphere and Nature (MEGAN) biogenic processing, and a historical fire database. These emissions were dynamically processed with SMOKE for use in the current decade simulations.
- Future landcover projections were compiled from a combination of sources that included projected changes in vegetation cover and urban distributions. These were edited to provide a consistent landcover data set for use in future decade MM5 simulations, development of biogenic and fire emissions, and CMAQ simulations.
- The Fire Scenario Builder (FSB) was completed and successfully tested for a recent year. Codes for processing FSB output via the BlueSky-EM also were developed.
- Analysis of current decade CMAQ simulations showed reasonable agreement with observed ozone concentrations in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Midwest. Similar analyses for PM2.5 are underway.
- A sensitivity analysis of the effects of changes in boundary conditions was completed using 1990 MM5 meteorology and emissions with current and future boundary conditions derived from MOZART output. The results showed a substantial increase in number of days with elevated ozone in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Midwest. The regional average increase in surface ozone concentration as a result of changes in boundary conditions was approximately 8 ppbv.
- Results from the current decade CMAQ simulation included sulfur and nitrogen deposition rates. These have been accumulated into monthly and annual totals as a basis for investigating regional deposition patterns for wet and dry deposition in the Pacific Northwest and for comparison to available measured deposition rates. A qualitative comparison suggests that the predicted rates are of the same order as measured deposition rates.
Future Activities:
Our primary objectives in the coming year are to: (1) complete the long term MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ simulations for the continental and regional base case and to analyze the results of these simulations; (2) conduct a number of sensitivity simulations to help evaluate uncertainties in the analysis; and (3) compile these results in a number of papers for publication.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 32 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
climate change, air quality, biogenic emissions, fire emissions, ozone, PM2.5, nitrogen and sulfur deposition,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Pollutants, Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, environmental measurement, meteorology, global change, ozone, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistryRelevant Websites:
http://www.nwairquest.wsu.edu Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.