Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Air Quality Using Multi-scale Modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ System
EPA Grant Number: R830962Title: Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Air Quality Using Multi-scale Modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ System
Investigators: Lamb, Brian , Guenther, Alex , Mass, Clifford , O'Neill, Susan
Current Investigators: Lamb, Brian , Guenther, Alex , Mass, Clifford , McKenzie, Donald , Larkin, Sim , O'Neill, Susan
Institution: Washington State University , USDA , National Center for Atmospheric Research , University of Washington
Current Institution: Washington State University , National Center for Atmospheric Research , U.S. Department of Agriculture - New Orleans Laboratory , USDA , University of Washington
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to August 14, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2004
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
The objective of this research project is to develop a modeling program to assess global change impact on U.S. air quality. This objective will be accomplished by answering the following questions:
(1) How does global warming affect air quality on regional and urban scales? Directly through warmer temperatures? Indirectly through changes in circulation patterns and changes in land cover?
(2) How does land use change resulting from increased urbanization, global warming, or intentional management (economic forces) affect air quality?
(3) How do fire and fire management affect regional air quality and regional haze in the future?
(4) What is the role of Asian emissions on U.S. air quality and how does global change influence the impact of Asian emissions?
(5) How sensitive is predicted air quality to globally forced boundary conditions (meteorological and chemical)?
(6) How sensitive are air quality simulations to changes in emission scenarios, both biogenic and anthropogenic?
(7) How sensitive are air quality simulations to uncertainties associated with wildfire projections and with land management scenarios?
Progress Summary:
The following specific activities have been completed:
- Parallel Climate Model (PCM) global model output has been obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for the periods 1990-2000, 2020-2030, and 2045-2055. These data are being used as boundary and initial conditions for downscaling Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) simulations for the United States. We also have completed a simple, first analysis of these data in terms of the potential impact of climate change on biogenic emissions within the two regions of interest.
- The Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers global chemistry model output has been obtained from the NCAR for the 1990-2000 and 2045-2055 periods. These data files will be used to provide chemical boundary conditions for the continental (Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ]) simulations.
- The investigation of methods for downscaling the PCM runs using the MM5 has been completed. A method has been developed for running long-term MM5 simulations and is being implemented for the first set of continental and regional-scale runs.
- Development of the Model of the Exchange of Gases between the Atmosphere and Nature (MEGAN) biogenic emissions model has been completed, and preliminary output from the MEGAN is being used for input into the CMAQ Model on a test case basis.
- A preliminary version of the fire scenario builder has been completed, and output is being used for input into the CMAQ Model on a test case basis.
- An automated script for long-term Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) and CMAQ runs has been developed and tested. This automated system is being set up for the first continental and regional-scale runs using the MM5 output.
Future Activities:
We will complete the long-term MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ simulations for the continental and regional base case and analyze the results of these simulations. A second objective is to begin formulating various land use and fire scenarios for use in sensitivity analyses.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 32 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
climate change, air quality, air quality modeling, tropospheric ozone, ozone, PM2.5, regional haze, particulate matter, aerosol, fire emissions, biogenic emissions, wildland fire, anthropogenic emissions, Pacific Northwest, Northern Midwest, prescribed fire, air, ecosystem protection/environmental exposure and risk, air pollutants, air pollution effects, atmosphere, atmospheric sciences, chemistry, monitoring/modeling, global climate change, aerosol formation, aerosols, airborne aerosols, ambient aerosol, ambient air pollution, anthropogenic stress, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric models, climate models, environmental measurement, global change, greenhouse gases, meteorology,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Pollutants, Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, environmental measurement, meteorology, global change, ozone, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistryRelevant Websites:
http://www.nwairquest.wsu.edu Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.