Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
EPA Grant Number: R828899Title: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
Investigators: Lodge, David M. , Dwyer, Greg
Institution: University of Notre Dame , University of Chicago
Current Institution: University of Chicago , University of Notre Dame
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 5, 2001 through July 4, 2004 (Extended to July 4, 2005)
Project Amount: $450,000
RFA: Exploratory Research to Anticipate Future Environmental Issues (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water , Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The overall objective of our research was to develop techniques for predicting future invasions of nonindigenous species. Our model system was aquatic organisms introduced to the North American Great Lakes in ballast water from ships, though we also considered trade-in aquatic plants and pets, too. The specific objectives of the project were to: (1) identify and quantify organisms introduced in ballast water; (2) use theoretical models to identify conditions conducive to establishment and determine how risk changes with the number of organisms introduced based on the number required to establish a self-sustaining population; and (3) relate different stages of the invasion process to characteristics of different aquatic species and screen species from different regions that are likely to be introduced to the Great Lakes.
The practical importance of these results is twofold. First, we believe that this analysis is the most highly resolved species list for ballast water introductions in the Great Lakes. Second, our study (along with an ongoing study in Canada) was the first to quantify the propagule pressure of resting eggs from ballast tank sediments. Together, these three components of our research provided important information for developing ballast water policy, managing the risk of future invasions, and understanding the population dynamics of currently invading species
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Because ballast water management, including increased ballast water exchange (the only management practice current used by many ships), is proceeding so slowly (even under the recently adopted International Maritime Organization [IMO] agreement), we explored a potential stop-gap approach to reducing the probability of establishment of species released from ships. Specifically, we developed a general model that related the chance of invasion to: (1) the volume of ballast water discharged, and (2) the organism body size for sexually reproducing organisms (Drake, Lodge, and Lewis, 2005). This model expands a previously published model that related minimal patch size for persistence to population growth rate. A known allometric relation between organism body size and population growth rate was used to generalize this model for ballast water policy. Our approach is applicable to sexually reproducing, planktonic taxonomic groups, including ctenophores, cnidaria, arthropods, annelids, mollusks, and (as an approximation) echinoderms and fishes. In general, we model establishment as the potential outcome of two competing rates: the rate of population growth (which is related allometrically to organism size) versus the rate of diffusion of the population.
As expected, the allowable volume of ballast discharge strongly depends on the acceptable level of risk (which is a societal decision), the taxonomic group of concern, and the characteristics of the receiving environment. For example, for a risk tolerance equivalent to establishment of 1 in 100 introduced species, independent releases of untreated ballast water should not exceed around 50,000 metric tons. Because of differences in horizontal mixing in different environments, releases in harbors are more risky than releases in open water. These results provide quantitative guidelines that could immediately lower the risk of species invasion while other more permanent technological solutions are developed. To lower the risk of introductions, the location and timing of deballasting practices (location and timing) and/or management of water flows within harbors could be adjusted in ways that subject released ballast to more mixing to minimize contact among released organisms.
Conclusions:
We offer the following take-home messages from the research described throughout this Final Report. These messages are relevant to management and policy of ship-mediated invasions.
- Shipping increasingly links the biota of every port on earth; simulation studies suggest that reducing the probability of introductions per ship will be a more effective policy than the possibility of treating ballast water at only major ports.
- Ballast discharges continue to deliver large numbers of potentially invasive species to the Great Lakes; nonindigenous species not known to be established in the Great Lakes very likely are continuing to arrive.
- Hull-fouling of ships poses a risk of delivering potentially invasive species that may exceed that of ballast discharges; for that reason a ban on hull-fouling paint containing tributyltin should be carefully reconsidered.
- Propagule pressure (the number of individuals released) should be considered more quantitatively than in the recently adopted IMO guidelines as a foundation for regulating ballast water discharge; specifically, it must be recognized that propagule pressure is a function not only of the concentration of organisms released (which is considered by IMO) but also of the volume of water discharged (which is not considered by IMO).
- Case studies of the establishment curve—the relationship between the risk of persistence of a species as a function of propagule pressure—suggest that unless environmental conditions are unsuitable or diffusivity of water is high, establishment often will result from the introduction of a very low number of propagules (on the order of 1-10 individuals); this implies that reductions of propagule pressure often may have to be extreme to reduce the establishment of additional nonindigenous species effectively.
- As a stop-gap measure (or one among several steps taken to reduce the probability of establishment from ballast water releases), increased mixing of water could be employed in or around harbors.
- Statistical models often can distinguish harmful from benign species with high accuracy based on only a few easily obtained species characteristics; many more such models should be developed and employed to screen species proposed for intentional introduction and to prioritize prevention, eradication, or control efforts of intentionally introduced species.
- The species of fishes and mollusks that we identified as posing a high risk of damage to the Great Lakes and the United States should be added by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to the Injurious Wildlife list under the Lacey Act, making it illegal to import these species into the United States.
- Qualitative consideration of the global flows of different kinds of commodities suggests that ship-mediated invasions are asymmetric, i.e., that developing countries are likely to be suffering more from invasions than developed countries, a form of environmental injustice (Drake and Keller, 2004).
A book on this project that will extend the already published papers and elaborate on the relevance of the scientific results to management and policy is in progress.
Journal Articles on this Report : 15 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 48 publications | 18 publications in selected types | All 18 journal articles |
|---|
| Type | Citation | ||
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke Jr R, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sala O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 2001;293(5530):657-660. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Keller RP. Environmental justice alert: do developing nations bear the burden of risk for invasive species? BioScience 2004;54(8):719. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM. Allee effects and the risk of biological invasion. Risk Analysis 2004;24(4):795-802. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Lodge DM. Effects of environmental variation on extinction and establishment. Ecology Letters 2004;7(1):26-30. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Lodge DM. Global hot spots of biological invasions: evaluating options for ballast-water management. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences 2004;271(1539):575-580. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Baggenstos P, Lodge DM. Propagule pressure and persistence in experimental populations. Biology Letters 2005;1(4):480-483. |
R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Costello C, Lodge DM. When did the discovery rate for invasive species in the North American Great Lakes accelerate? BioScience 2005;55(1):4. |
R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM. Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations. PLoS Biology 2005;3(7):e222. |
R828899 (Final) |
Exit |
|
|
Drake JM. Risk analysis for species introductions: forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2005;62(5):1053-1059. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Lodge DM, Lewis M. Theory and preliminary analysis of species invasions from ballast water: controlling discharge volume and location. The American Midland Naturalist 2005;154(2):459-470. |
R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Drury KLS, Lodge DM, Blukacz A, Yan ND, Dwyer G. Demographic stochasticity, environmental variability, and windows of invasion risk for Bythotrephes longimanus in North America. Biological Invasions 2006;8(4):843-861. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit |
|
|
Drake JM, Lodge DM. Allee effects, propagule pressure and the probability of establishment: risk analysis for biological invasions. Biological Invasions 2006;8(2):365-375. |
R828899 (Final) |
Exit |
|
|
Drake JM. Extinction times in experimental populations. Ecology 2006;87(9):2215-2220. |
R828899 (Final) |
Exit |
|
|
Kolar CS, Lodge DM. Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 2002;298(5596):1233-1236. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit |
|
|
Sakai AK, Allendorf FW, Holt JS, Lodge DM, Molofsky J, With KA, Baughman S, Cabin RJ, Cohen JE, Ellstrand NC, McCauley DE, O'Neil P, Parker IM, Thompson JN, Weller SG. The population biology of invasive species. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 2001;32:305-332. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
exposure, risk, risk assessment, effects, ecological effects, sensitive populations, dose-response, animal, organism, population, stressor, susceptibility, cumulative effects, ecosystem, aquatic, habitat, life-cycle analysis, public policy, decisionmaking, conservation, biology, ecology, limnology, modeling, monitoring, analytical, surveys, Great Lakes, Midwest, business, transportation,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water & Watershed, Monitoring/Modeling, Habitat, Ecological Risk Assessment, Exp. Research/future, Futures, Great Lakes, Watersheds, population dynamics, population variability analysis, habitat dynamics, biodiversity, biopollution, marine ecology, phytoplankton, aquatic ecosytems, habitat disturbance, statistical modeling, ecological pollutants, exploratory research, non-indigenous species, invasive species, aquatic ecosystems, ecological dynamics, irreversible environmental change, ship pathwaysRelevant Websites:
http://dragonfly.ecology.uga.edu/drakelab/ ExitProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.