Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
EPA Grant Number: R828899Title: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
Investigators: Lodge, David M. , Dwyer, Greg
Institution: University of Notre Dame , University of Chicago
Current Institution: University of Chicago , University of Notre Dame
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 5, 2001 through July 4, 2004 (Extended to July 4, 2005)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 5, 2002 through July 4, 2003
Project Amount: $450,000
RFA: Exploratory Research to Anticipate Future Environmental Issues (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water , Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The overall goal of our research is to develop techniques for predicting future invasions of nonindigenous species. Our model system is aquatic organisms introduced to the North American Great Lakes in ballast water from ships. Specific objectives are to: (1) identify and quantify organisms introduced in ballast water; (2) identify conditions conducive to establishment, and determine how risk changes with the number of organisms required to establish a self-sustaining population; and (3) relate different stages of the invasion process to characteristics of different aquatic species, and screen species from different regions that are likely to be introduced to the Great Lakes. Objective 1 is being accomplished by sampling ballast tanks from ships entering the Great Lakes. Objective 2 is being accomplished through mathematical modeling of representative species using population viability analysis (PVA) techniques. Objective 3 will be accomplished using multivariate statistical techniques. These results and models will be applied to identify species that pose the greatest risk to the Great Lakes so that more effective management can prevent invasions by those species.
Progress Summary:
Objective 1. Sample collection and isolation of organisms is complete. Summary statistics for collected samples have been compiled. Specific taxonomic identifications are underway. Active subcontracts or partnerships with taxonomic specialists have been established with James Vancil (aquatic ecologist, Knoxville, TN) for species identification of adult invertebrates and Timothy Wood (Wright State University) for species identification of bryozoan resting stages (statoblasts). Numerous invertebrate resting stages were isolated during the completion of Objective 1. Therefore, we conducted a pilot study to determine the feasibility of extracting DNA from batches of resting eggs using a combination of molecular techniques (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and gene sequencing) and statistical analyses (bootstrap) to isolate and identify organisms based on sequences of mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear ribosomal (18S) genes. Results from the pilot study indicate that this approach is feasible. Using these data, John Drake (University of Notre Dame) and David Lodge obtained a doctoral dissertation improvement grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to carry out further analyses using these methods. We have determined that this work should be carried out under the direction of co-Principal Investigator Dwyer at the University of Chicago to capitalize on facilities and the onsite genetic expertise available there. Using funds already allocated to Dwyer (originally earmarked for hiring a postdoctoral researcher), we have arranged the necessary personnel for completing this further investigation. Thus, Objective 1 is near completion.
Objective 2. Population viability analyses for the predatory zooplankter Bythotrephes longimanus are being validated and the results will be reported in future publications. This analysis is the first to model population growth as a non-homogeneous birth-death process, a modeling framework that allows us to distinguish "windows" of high invasion risk (midsummer) from times when invasion risk is negligible (winter). We have completed a PVA for an introduced fish, Eurasian ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus). This analysis found no evidence for Allee effects (inverse density dependence) in ruffe. A general model relating the chance of invasion to propagule pressure for parasitized species was developed and published earlier this year (Drake, 2003) under the auspices of this grant. We developed a general model that related the chance of invasion to the volume of ballast water discharged and organism body size for sexually reproducing organisms. Two other projects have been partially supported by this grant: a global model of ballast water introduction hotspots, and an experiment with the laboratory model organism Daphnia magna to test the premise that environmental variation increases the chance of extinction.
Objective 3. We are continuing work on developing statistical models to identify potentially invasive fishes from a list of 1,487 fish stocks from Chinese waters. When this analysis is complete, we intend to assess risk from other temperate regions of Asia. We have developed a statistical model relating economic damages of mollusks to their individual lifetime fecundities. We are preparing these results for publication. Finally, consistent with our proposed schedule, we are conducting a similar analysis for macrophytes, including the aquatic weed, Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum).
Future Activities:
During the next phase of this project we plan to complete the molecular/statistical analysis of resting eggs with additional support obtained from the NSF (doctoral dissertation improvement grant to Drake and Lodge). We will use existing statistical models to extrapolate total propagule pressure from our samples. We will submit for publication our analysis of mollusks and complete our analysis of macrophytes. Additional publications will be the focus of our final year of research, in particular, a book-length monograph summarizing the results of this study.
Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 48 publications | 18 publications in selected types | All 18 journal articles |
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Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke Jr R, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sala O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 2001;293(5530):657-660. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Kolar CS, Lodge DM. Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 2002;298(5596):1233-1236. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Leung B, Drake JM, Lodge DM. Predicting invasions: Propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 2004;85(6):1651-1660. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) |
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Sakai AK, Allendorf FW, Holt JS, Lodge DM, Molofsky J, With KA, Baughman S, Cabin RJ, Cohen JE, Ellstrand NC, McCauley DE, O'Neil P, Parker IM, Thompson JN, Weller SG. The population biology of invasive species. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 2001;32:305-332. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
exposure, risk, risk assessment, effects, ecological effects, sensitive populations, dose-response, animal, organism, population, stressor, susceptibility, cumulative effects, ballast, invasion, nonindigenous, mathematical modeling, invertebrate, ecosystem, aquatic, habitat, bryozoan, life-cycle analysis, public policy, decisionmaking, conservation, biology, ecology, limnology, modeling, monitoring, analytical, surveys, Great Lakes, midwest, biopollution., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water & Watershed, Monitoring/Modeling, Habitat, Ecological Risk Assessment, Exp. Research/future, Futures, Great Lakes, Watersheds, population dynamics, population variability analysis, habitat dynamics, biodiversity, biopollution, marine ecology, phytoplankton, aquatic ecosytems, habitat disturbance, statistical modeling, ecological pollutants, exploratory research, non-indigenous species, invasive species, aquatic ecosystems, ecological dynamics, irreversible environmental change, ship pathwaysProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.