Grantee Research Project Results
2002 Progress Report: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
EPA Grant Number: R828899Title: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
Investigators: Lodge, David M. , Dwyer, Greg
Institution: University of Notre Dame , University of Chicago
Current Institution: University of Chicago , University of Notre Dame
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 5, 2001 through July 4, 2004 (Extended to July 4, 2005)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 5, 2001 through July 4, 2002
Project Amount: $450,000
RFA: Exploratory Research to Anticipate Future Environmental Issues (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water , Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The overall objective of this research project is to develop techniques for predicting future invasions of nonindigenous species. Our model system is that aquatic organisms are introduced to the North American Great Lakes in ballast water from ships. Specific goals are to: (1) identify and quantify organisms introduced in ballast water; (2) identify conditions conducive to establishment and determine how risk changes with the number of organisms required to establish a self-sustaining population; and (3) relate different stages of the invasion process to characteristics of different aquatic species and screen species from different regions that are likely to be introduced to the Great Lakes.
Objective 1 is being accomplished by sampling ballast tanks from ships entering the Great Lakes. Objective 2 is being accomplished through mathematical modeling of representative species using population viability analysis (PVA) techniques. Objective 3 will be accomplished using multivariate statistical techniques. These results and models will be applied to identify species that pose the greatest risk to the Great Lakes so that more effective management can prevent invasions by those species.
Progress Summary:
Progress Toward Objective 1
We collected 66 samples of ballast water and 40 samples of ballast sediments from 41 ships entering the Great Lakes. These samples together contained an estimated 1,500 adult planktonic organisms and 200,000-2,000,000 resting eggs. Species now are being identified. Morphological characters to identify resting eggs are largely unavailable. Therefore, we conducted a pilot study to determine the feasibility of using molecular genetic techniques to determine identities through sequence comparison and phylogenetic analysis.
This analysis indicated that through a combination of molecular techniques and statistical analysis, we will be able to identify and quantify resting eggs in our samples with tolerable uncertainty.
The practical importance of these results is twofold. First, we believe that our analysis will be the most highly resolved species list for ballast water introductions in the Great Lakes. Second, our study (along with an ongoing study at the University of Windsor) is the first to quantify the propagule pressure of resting eggs from ballast-tank sediments. A tentative conclusion from these results is that release of sediments may be even more important than the release of ballast water in initiating invasions. This is particularly important because ships declared "no ballast on board" (NOBOB) are not as strictly regulated, although they are the most likely to introduce resting eggs. Our quantification of these two sources will assist managers and legislators in developing crucial ballast water policy.
Progress Toward Objective 2
Population viability analysis for spiny water fleas produced three interesting results: (1) random variations in environmental conditions and rates of population growth alone are unlikely to prevent the establishment of a self-sustaining population; (2) the difficulties of finding a mate for small, newly introduced populations has the potential to be extremely important in preventing the establishment of sexually reproducing species; and (3) the seasonal timing of an introduction can be crucial for the success or failure of establishment. These models are useful for risk management because they assign probabilities of establishment to different propagule pressures.
Progress Toward Objective 3
We refined a statistical model to successfully retrodict establishment and impact of species previously introduced to the Great Lakes. This model was used to predict future invaders from a list of 65 species in the Ponto-Caspian region. This analysis highlighted Black Sea Sprat, Eurasian Minnow, Black Sea Silverside, European Perch, and Monkey Goby as species of particular concern. Work is underway to produce a similar analysis for a list of 1,487 fish stocks from Chinese waters. We have developed a similar model for mollusks, which we currently are testing.
Together, these three components are providing important information for developing ballast water policy, managing the risk of future invasions, and understanding the population dynamics of currently invading species including zebra mussels and spiny water flea.
Future Activities:
During the second and third years of the project, we will complete our enumeration of organisms in ballast water and sediments. These results will be used as initial conditions in models for establishment and spread. We also will build statistical models to extrapolate from our samples and estimate the total number of organisms and total number of species introduced to the Great Lakes in ballast water and sediments each year. Finally, we will conduct a sensitivity analysis on our predictive models for invasive fishes and complete screening of possible invasive fishes from different regions of the world.
Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 48 publications | 18 publications in selected types | All 18 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke Jr R, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sala O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 2001;293(5530):657-660. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Kolar CS, Lodge DM. Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 2002;298(5596):1233-1236. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit |
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Leung B, Drake JM, Lodge DM. Predicting invasions: Propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 2004;85(6):1651-1660. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) |
Exit Exit |
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Sakai AK, Allendorf FW, Holt JS, Lodge DM, Molofsky J, With KA, Baughman S, Cabin RJ, Cohen JE, Ellstrand NC, McCauley DE, O'Neil P, Parker IM, Thompson JN, Weller SG. The population biology of invasive species. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 2001;32:305-332. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
exposure, risk, risk assessment, effects, ecological effects, sensitive populations, dose-response, animal, organism, population, stressor, susceptibility, cumulative effects, ecosystem, aquatic, habitat, life-cycle analysis, public policy, decisionmaking, conservation, biology, ecology, limnology, modeling, monitoring, analytical, surveys, Great Lakes, Midwest, business, transportation, watersheds, effluent, discharge, restoration, pollution prevention, conservation., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water & Watershed, Monitoring/Modeling, Habitat, Ecological Risk Assessment, Exp. Research/future, Futures, Great Lakes, Watersheds, population dynamics, population variability analysis, habitat dynamics, biodiversity, biopollution, marine ecology, phytoplankton, aquatic ecosytems, habitat disturbance, statistical modeling, ecological pollutants, exploratory research, non-indigenous species, invasive species, aquatic ecosystems, ecological dynamics, irreversible environmental change, ship pathwaysProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.