Grantee Research Project Results
2011 Progress Report: Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States
EPA Grant Number: R833833Title: Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States
Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Raff, David A. , Shafroth, Patrick B. , Merritt, David M. , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Auble, Gregor T. , Purkey, David , Lytle, David , Friedman, Jonathan
Current Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Purkey, David , Friedman, Jonathan , Auble, Gregor T. , Shafroth, Patrick B. , Merritt, David M. , Raff, David A. , Lytle, David
Institution: Colorado State University , Stockholm Environment Institute , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation , United States Geological Survey , Oregon State University , U.S. Forest Service
Current Institution: Colorado State University , Oregon State University , U.S. Forest Service , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation , United States Geological Survey , Stockholm Environment Institute
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2010 through June 30,2011
Project Amount: $599,748
RFA: Ecological Impacts from the Interactions of Climate Change, Land Use Change and Invasive Species: A Joint Research Solicitation - EPA, USDA (2007) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
This project seeks to predict the establishment and spread of invasive species in rivers that are susceptible to changing climatic conditions. Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to combine with increasing human water demands to modify flow regimes in many watersheds. Thermal shifts and altered snowmelt/rainfall will produce different discharge patterns, which may then influence population and community processes, potentially disfavoring native species while facilitating invasion by harmful non-natives. The approach consists of linking a hydrologic model, driven by regionally downscaled climate projection models, to biological response models representing invasive population growth as a function of discharge, air and water temperature, geomorphic setting and community interactions.
Progress Summary:
Future Activities:
During the next reporting period, the project team expects to obtain the latest suite of future climate scenarios for the BCCA of WCRP’s CMIP3 (and to determine the possible water management scenarios for the upper Green River basin) in order to implement WEAP model runs using these scenarios. WEAP outputs will be fully integrated with those of the GVC to provide the inputs for deploying the biological response models for tamarisk and New Zealand mud snail, which in turn will generate the predicted invasion risks throughout the upper Green River basin at several instances in the future.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 25 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 5 journal articles |
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Auerbach DA, Poff NL. Spatiotemporal controls of simulated metacommunity dynamics in dendritic networks. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 2011;30(1):235-251. |
R833833 (2010) R833833 (2011) R833833 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
River network, watershed, land use, invasive species, climate change, temperature, precipitation, flow regime, dams, disturbance, aquatic, habitat, stressor, risk assessment, vulnerability, decision support, conservation, ecology, hydrology, geomorphology, scaling, niche model, agent-based model, geographic information system, remote sensing, western, WY, CO, UT, EPA Region 8, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Aquatic Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, climatic influence, climate models, ecosystem indicators, aquatic ecosystems, coastal ecosystems, global climate models, invasive species, ecosystem stress, land and water resources, Global Climate Change, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
Poff’s homepage (http://rydberg.biology.colostate.edu/poff/ Exit )Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.