Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States
EPA Grant Number: R833833Title: Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States
Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Raff, David A. , Shafroth, Patrick B. , Merritt, David M. , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Auble, Gregor T. , Purkey, David , Lytle, David , Friedman, Jonathan
Current Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Purkey, David , Friedman, Jonathan , Auble, Gregor T. , Shafroth, Patrick B. , Merritt, David M. , Raff, David A. , Lytle, David
Institution: Colorado State University , Stockholm Environment Institute , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation , United States Geological Survey , Oregon State University , U.S. Forest Service
Current Institution: Colorado State University , Oregon State University , U.S. Forest Service , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation , United States Geological Survey , Stockholm Environment Institute
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2009 through June 30,2010
Project Amount: $599,748
RFA: Ecological Impacts from the Interactions of Climate Change, Land Use Change and Invasive Species: A Joint Research Solicitation - EPA, USDA (2007) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The project seeks to predict the establishment and spread of invasive species in rivers subject to novel climatic conditions. Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to combine with human water needs to alter flow regimes in many watersheds. Thermal shifts and novel discharge patterns may then influence population and community processes, potentially disfavoring native species while facilitating invasion by harmful non-natives. The approach consists of linking output from a hydrologic model, driven by downscaled climate scenarios, to biological response models representing invasive population growth as a function of discharge, geomorphic setting and, potentially, community interactions.
Progress Summary:
The project team selected the Upper Green River basin as the primary study area on the basis of its ecological, agricultural and recreational importance, the potential for high-density tamarisk and New Zealand mudsnail invasion, and the presence of major water control infrastructure. During this reporting period, the group completed construction and calibration of the hydrologic process model for the Upper Green River basin. Additionally, a geomorphic classification model was applied to the study area, resulting in the identification of polygons with different habitat attributes. Continuing exploration of biological response model options has led to the identification of three primary candidate approaches.
Future Activities:
During the next reporting period, the project team expects to conduct meetings to develop the future climate and management scenarios, begin WEAP model runs using these scenarios while integrating the WEAP output with the GVC units, finalize the biological response model components, and perhaps create the preliminary composite projections of invasions in the Upper Green River Basin.Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 25 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 5 journal articles |
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Auerbach DA, Poff NL. Spatiotemporal controls of simulated metacommunity dynamics in dendritic networks. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 2011;30(1):235-251. |
R833833 (2010) R833833 (2011) R833833 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Niche modeling, hydrologic disturbance, flow regime, river management, river networks, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Aquatic Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, climatic influence, climate models, ecosystem indicators, aquatic ecosystems, coastal ecosystems, global climate models, invasive species, ecosystem stress, land and water resources, Global Climate Change, climate variabilityProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.