Grantee Research Project Results
2009 Progress Report: Sustainable Coastal Habitat Restoration in the Pacific Northwest: Modeling and Managing the Effects, Feedbacks, and Risks Associated with Climate Change
EPA Grant Number: R833014Title: Sustainable Coastal Habitat Restoration in the Pacific Northwest: Modeling and Managing the Effects, Feedbacks, and Risks Associated with Climate Change
Investigators: Rybczyk, John , Hood, W. Greg , Reyes, Enrique , Khangaonkar, Tarang , Yang, Zhaoqing
Current Investigators: Rybczyk, John , Reyes, Enrique , Hood, W. Greg , Khangaonkar, Tarang , Yang, Zhaoqing
Institution: Western Washington University , Skagit System Cooperative , Battelle Memorial Institute , East Carolina University
Current Institution: Western Washington University , East Carolina University , Battelle Memorial Institute , Skagit System Cooperative
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: April 1, 2007 through March 31, 2010 (Extended to March 31, 2012)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2009 through March 31,2010
Project Amount: $879,247
RFA: Nonlinear Responses to Global Change in Linked Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems and Effects of Multiple Factors on Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Joint Research Solicitation- EPA, DOE (2005) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
The overall objective of this proposal is to develop a predictive landscape simulation model, incorporating non-linear feedbacks, of the ecological and geomorphological consequences of climate-induced sea-level rise and river flow alteration in two of the most ecologically significant estuarine systems in Puget Sound, Padilla Bay and Skagit Bay. We will use the model to guide the course of restoration and management efforts, given climate change, as they relate to salmon habitat in Puget Sound.Progress Summary:
All of the field data required for all model (hydrodynamic, sediment dynamic, and relative elevation model (REM)) calibration and initialization has been collected and processed. Additional sediment data will be collected during the summer, because we have the luxury of another summer field season. Essentially, we will continue collecting the same kind of data that was collected during years 1 – 3 (sedimentation in Padilla Bay and we will collect a few more sediment cores in the Skagit Delta). The hydrodynamic model is complete and running. The REM model is complete and running. As a first step, sea level rise scenarios for Padilla Bay model (minus the hydrodynamics linkage), were run. An example of the output is shown in Figure 1. The GIS grid system for the entire Skagit system has been completed as well. Two peer-reviewed publications, highlighting our work thus far were published in the journals Ocean Modelling and Ecological Modelling. What remains for 2010 – 2011 is to inititialize and calibrate the sediments dynamic model with the data that was collected and processed last year, and then to link the three models and run the sea-level rise scenarios for the entire Skagit system (of which Padilla Bay is part).
Figure 1a. Padilla Bay eelgrass productivity, current conditions.
Figure 1b. Simulated eelgrass productivity, year 2012 with a projected SLR of 1.27 meter over 100 years.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 30 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 9 journal articles |
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Kairis PA, Rybczyk JM. Sea level rise and eelgrass (Zostera marina) production:a spatially explicit relative elevation model for Padilla Bay, WA. Ecological Modelling 2010;221(7):1005-1016. |
R833014 (2008) R833014 (2009) R833014 (Final) |
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Yang Z, Khangaonkar T. Modeling tidal circulation and stratification in Skagit River estuary using an unstructured grid ocean model. Ocean Modelling 2009;28(1-3):34-49. |
R833014 (2008) R833014 (2009) R833014 (Final) |
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Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.