Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
EPA Grant Number: R828733Title: Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
Investigators: Kinney, Patrick L. , Soleki, William D. , Rosenthal, Joyce E. , Lynn, Barry , Hogrefe, Christian , Small, Christopher , Rosenzweig, Cynthia , Werth, David , Cox, Jennifer , Civerolo, Kevin , Knowlton, Kim , Ku, Michael , Goldberg, Richard , Avissar, Roni , Holloway, Tracey
Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , The State University of New York , New York State Department of Environmental Conservation , Duke University , University of Wisconsin - Madison
Current Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , Duke University , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York State Department of Environmental Conservation , The State University of New York , University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2000 through August 31, 2003 (Extended to March 14, 2006)
Project Amount: $1,496,418
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The overarching objective of the New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP) was to link human dimension and natural sciences models to yield improved tools for assessing the future public health impacts of climate change in the context of existing environmental stressors and to address the following questions:
- How may the frequency and severity of extreme heat and pollution events change over the next 80 years as a result of a range of possible scenarios of land use/land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the greater New York City (NYC) region?
- What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the NYC region?
The specific objectives of this research project were to: (1) link the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model, driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 and B2 greenhouse gas scenarios, with the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) and Regional Atmospheric Modeling System regional-scale models to develop regionally downscaled projections of climate under alternative climate change scenarios; (2) develop projections of land use change for the 31-county NYC metropolitan region that were consistent with the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios; (3) link the photochemical transport model Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) to dynamic inputs of regional climate, emissions, chemical boundary conditions, and land use; (4) perform and evaluate simulations of present-day ozone concentrations over the eastern United States; (5) determine the effect of changes in regional climate change on ozone air quality and compare this effect to the effects of hypothetical regional anthropogenic emissions changes, changes in global tropospheric background conditions, and changes in urban land use; and (6) estimate potential human health impacts (daily mortality) of projected changes in surface temperatures and ozone.
In an add-on study funded by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 2, impacts of the NYC urban heat island on energy demand were modeled.
Additional research activities not originally envisioned in the proposal were performed to supplement our understanding of some of the underlying issues involved in this modeling study. Following is a list of these additional activities, along with references to the publications describing them in more detail. Because this report focuses on the activities that were performed in direct support of the overall NYCHP objectives, the results of these supplemental activities are summarized only briefly and the reader is referred to the publications listed below for more information:
- Development of a new aggregation scheme for surface roughness, displacement height, and albedo over heterogeneous grid cells in atmospheric models (Mihailovic, et al., 2002; Kapor, et al., 2002).
- Participation in a model evaluation study comparing the performance of meteorological and air quality models at different spatial resolutions (Gego, et al., 2005).
- Assessment of the impact of meteorological variability and climate change on the efficacy of domestic emission control programs (Jones, et al., 2005).
In an extension of the original geographical scope of the proposal, climate and photochemical modeling for the different regional climate scenarios was performed not only for the greater New York City metropolitan area, but for the eastern United States to account for the effects of regional-scale transport and its potential sensitivity towards climate change on pollutant concentrations in this region. Furthermore, although the original proposal stated that air quality simulations would be performed for both ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), an external expert panel following the NYCHP research over the course of the project recommended focusing on performing only gas-phase chemistry simulations to increase the number of climate scenarios and sensitivity simulations achievable with the computational resources available.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
To put our work into context, we defined future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, ozone precursor emissions, land use changes, and population growth on the basis of two existing growth scenarios published by the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The A2 scenario is characterized by relatively high CO2 emissions (30 gigaton[gt]/year max), weaker environmental concerns, and large population increases (15 billion by 2100). The B2 scenario is characterized by medium CO2 emissions (15gt/year max), stronger emphasis on environmental issues, and medium population growth (10 billion by 2100). In 2000, world CO2 emissions were estimated at about 7-8 gt/year from our population of 6.1 billion.
For modeling runs downscaled from the global to the regional and urban scales, we defined a modeling domain that included the eastern half of the United States. The health impacts domain was defined as the 31 county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR), comprising parts of northern New Jersey, western Connecticut, southern New York State, and Long Island (see Figure 1). Within this region, we assessed impacts at a range of grid scales, with the finest scale being 4 x 4 km.
Figure 1. NYCHP Model Projections for the 2050s IPCC A2 Scenario: (a) Temperature Change Simulated With MM5; (b) Ozone Change Simulated With CMAQ; (c) Land-use Change Simulated With SLEUTH; and (d) Change in Ozone-Related Deaths Source: NASA/GISS; SUNY Albany; Hunter College, CUNY; and Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, (d) Reproduced With Permission From Environmental Health Perspectives 112:1557-1563.
Climate Modeling
General circulation model (GCM) outputs were available on an hourly basis from the 1990s through the 2080s. These provided initial and boundary conditions to the regional climate models. Regional climate and air quality simulations eastern U.S. domain were carried out for the summer months of June-August for five consecutive mid-decadal years (i.e., 1993-1997) of the 1990s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. For finer resolution simulations at 12 and 4 km within the NYMR, episodes of high temperature and ozone levels were selected. For assessing public health impacts, we focused the analysis on the effects related to premature mortality.
The GISS-MM5 at 108 and 36 km resolution was able to reproduce the observed summer 1990s temperature better than the GISS GCM. It did not do as well with the precipitation, although the spatial correlation of the precipitation improved. The temperature and precipitation results that come out of the GISS-MM5 model can look very different than what is input into the model from the GISS GCM. For example, the hottest GISS summer frequently does not produce the hottest MM5 summer.
The differences in temperature and precipitation obtained by changing the MM5 physics configurations were larger than the projected changes in 2050s anomalies themselves. The choice of boundary layer model and cumulus parameterization had a large impact on the results. Some of these differences can be related to differences in convective versus nonconvective precipitation and the effects that this had on the solar radiation.
The GISS-MM5 projected patterns of 2050s temperature change were similar to the GISS model although somewhat warmer. The changes in precipitation were generally larger than those produced by the GISS model with large regional differences, resulting in higher levels of uncertainty with regard to precipitation.
Urban Heat Island Impacts and Mitigation Strategies in Lower Manhattan: Linking MM5 Urban Heat Island Modeling to Market Allocation Model (MARKAL) and Energy Plus
NYC, like other large cities, is warmer than surrounding areas because of the urban heat island effect, which occurs when impervious built surfaces such as roads and buildings absorb solar radiation and reradiate it in the form of heat. The development of a heat island has regional-scale impacts on energy demand, air quality, and public health. Heat island mitigation strategies, such as urban forestry, living/green roofs, and light surfaces, could be implemented at the community level within NYC.
As a supplement to the main project, we characterized Lower Manhattan’s heat island using remotely sensed satellite data, aerial photography, geographic information system (GIS) data, and meteorological data (Figure 2). The Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research MM5 regional climate model was used to determine potential reductions in surface and near-surface air temperature with each mitigation strategy during three heat-wave periods in the summer of 2002.
Through collaboration with a team of energy modelers at Brookhaven National Laboratory and the State University of New York (SUNY) at Stonybrook, MM5 simulations were linked with EnergyPlus modeling and the NYC MARKAL project to characterize energy-heat island interactions (Figure 3). The methodology was developed during regular monthly meetings, and results from the heat island mitigation work were shared with energy balance modelers as they became available. The objective was to create and test a pilot version of an integrated modeling tool with applications to energy supply and demand and health outcomes, including the evaluation of the energy impact of heat island mitigation strategies, and of ENERGY STAR® programs.
This research built on the Science To Achieve Results (STAR) NYCHP funded by EPA’s Office of Research and Development and also relates to the recently completed scoping study on the Urban Heat Island of Newark, NJ (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2003) funded by EPA Region 2 and the ongoing development of the NYC MARKAL energy model (Region 2 Pollution Prevention Grant to SUNY-Stonybrook 2003/2004).
Satellite data showed that Lower Manhattan has higher daytime surface temperatures compared with much of the rest of Manhattan. GIS data revealed that, like other neighborhoods in Manhattan, Lower Manhattan has more impervious surface area (83.6% of the total surface area) and more flat roof area (26.6%) than neighborhoods outside Manhattan. There is more available area to plant street trees (8.8%) as compared to the area available to plan trees in parks (5.8%).
Results showed that vegetation tends to cool surfaces more effectively than does increasing albedo using light surfaces, and planting street trees offers the greatest potential temperature reduction per unit area. Because, however, there is more available area for rooftop redevelopment, living roofs had the greatest potential temperature impact: 0.5ºF on average and 0.9ºF at 3:00 p.m., a time of peak energy demand, if all available area was redeveloped. This is on the lower end compared to previous city-wide heat island mitigation results reported for NYC; it is, however, on the higher end relative to other neighborhoods tested.
(a) |
Figure 2. Lower Manhattan East Case Study Area. (a) Aerial view and (b) Gridded surface temperature on September 8, 2002 with resolution of 250 m
Figure 3. Interaction Between MARKAL, EnergyPlus, and MM5/UHI
Land Use Modeling
To evaluate future scenarios of urban land use change in the NYMR, we utilized the SLEUTH program with growth scenarios linked to the SRES A2 and B2 story lines. SLEUTH is an acronym for a set of growth-inducing variables that can be used to define land use change (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion zones, Land use, Transportation, and Hill shading), and it also employs a set of growth parameters (defined by the past patterns of urbanization) and growth rules. The software structure enables one to define future growth as a projection of past growth, as well as define alternative growth scenarios (e.g., slowed conversion, more rapid conversion).
SLEUTH simulations suggest that there could be significant LU/LC change in the NYMR during the first half of the 21st century. For example, the Urban Growth Model component of SLEUTH projects a loss of 47 percent and 67 percent in 2020 and 2050, respectively, of the total nonurban land present in 1990 under the A2 scenario. The rate of conversation slows significantly during the 2020 to 2050 period because the number of available sites (i.e., pixels) becomes limited and instead an increased proportion of the new growth takes place as slower edge growth or transportation corridor related growth.
Projected rapid conversion takes place where significant conversion had occurred during the period 1960 to 1990 and where the development potential was high (e.g., areas with relatively flat terrain, access to highways, etc.). As a result, conversion was extensive particularly in eastern Long Island and central New Jersey. The more mountainous and isolated northern parts of the region incurred less development during this study period.
We also employed land use projections to alter land surface parameters used as inputs to the regional climate and air quality models. Land surface characteristics derived from satellite (Landsat) imagery—vegetation fraction and albedo—were used to help define predicted changes in urbanization in the 31-county region. Using these land surface qualities, the land use change estimates projected for the region were divided into three urban vegetation categories—low, medium, and high-density urban. Recent meteorology and air quality modeling at 4 km has incorporated altered land surface characteristics associated with land use projections for the region (Solecki and Oliveri, 2004; Civerolo, et al., 2006).
Air Quality Modeling
For air quality simulations, we used the CMAQ model. The GCM/MM5 linked model provided the meteorological inputs needed for the air quality simulations. The outputs from the air quality simulations have been used to evaluate the modeling system against observed ozone data, to project future ozone concentrations throughout the 36 km eastern United States modeling domain under different climate scenarios, and for assessing potential public health impacts based within the NYMR.
Climate change can influence the concentration and distribution of air pollutants through a variety of direct and indirect processes, including the modification of biogenic emissions, the change of chemical reaction rates, mixed-layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and modifications of synoptic flow patterns that govern pollutant transport. For example, warmer temperatures can result in increased concentrations of photochemical oxidants, whereas many past studies have revealed the impact of meteorological conditions on episodes of high ozone concentrations.
The modeling and analysis activities focused on the following two questions:
- How well does the GISS-MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ system simulate summertime surface temperature and ozone climatology for the 1990s over the eastern United States?
- How do changes in regional climate affect regional ozone air quality, and what is the relative importance of regional climate change, changes in regional biogenic and anthropogenic emissions, and changes in global tropospheric background conditions on future year ozone air quality?
To address Question 1, simulations were performed for five summer seasons in the 1990s and compared extensively against temperature and ozone observations. To address Question 2, simulations were performed for five summers each for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under the A2 scenario and the 2050s B2 scenario. Additionally, sensitivity simulations were performed to isolate the effects of changed climate, changed anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and changed global background conditions for the hottest summer in the 1990s and the 2050s A2 scenario.
Using the NYCHP modeling system under the A2 scenario, we estimated hourly surface ozone concentrations over the 36 km domain for five mid-decadal summers in the 1990s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Summertime Average Daily Maximum 8 Hour O3 Concentrations for the 1990s (Figure 4a) and Changes in Summertime Average Daily Maximum 8 hour O3 Concentrations for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s A2 Scenario Simulations Relative to the 1990s, in ppb (Figures 4b-d). Five consecutive summer seasons were simulated in each decade.
Key findings of the air quality modeling and analysis are:
- The GCM/MM5/CMAQ system performs well in simulating summertime regional-scale ozone climatology and the frequency and duration of extreme ozone events over the eastern United States under present-day conditions.
- The frequency and duration of extreme O3 events is predicted to increase under the A2 climate scenario for future decades.
- Regional climate change was found to cause significant increases in the simulated fourth-highest summertime 8 hour O3 concentration in future years. This result implies that it may be important to consider the effects of a changing climate when planning for the future attainment of regional-scale air quality standards such as the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards that is based on the fourth-highest annual daily maximum 8 hour O3 concentration.
In connection with the high-resolution (4 km) simulations, we also participated in a model evaluation study comparing the performance of meteorological and air quality models at different spatial resolutions. Furthermore, simulations were performed to assess the impact of climate change on the efficacy of domestic emission control programs, and initial steps were performed to link output from the land use change model to the biogenic emissions model used to generate emissions inputs for CMAQ.
Health Impacts Assessment
Projections of regional climate and air quality were assessed under alternative scenarios of global climate change and regional land use change, and these projections have then been used in a risk assessment framework, with and without assumptions of population growth, to examine potential public health impacts of both extreme heat events and ozone air quality over the coming century.
Health impacts were assessed for ozone air quality (from simulated 1 hour daily maximum ozone concentrations, in ppb) and ambient temperatures (as daily mean temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit). Simulated future changes in these two environmental stressors were compared to conditions in the 1990s across the NYMR. Concentration-response coefficients for ozone (Thurston and Ito, 2001) and heat effects (Curriero, et al., 2002, 2003) were taken from the recent environmental epidemiological literature.
Overall, our results using the relatively high-growth A2 scenario suggest:
In a typical summer of the 1990s, heat-related deaths in the NYMR exceeded O3-related mortality by about 11 percent.
Under a changing climate, heat-related mortality is projected to increase. Summer heat-related mortality could increase 36 percent by the 2020s, nearly double (95% increase) by the 2050s, and more than triple (250% increase) by the 2080s.
Climate change alone (ignoring changes in pollution emissions) may increase ozone concentrations across the region and result in a 5 percent increase in summertime ozone-related mortality by the 2050s.
Summer heat-related mortality by the 2050s could far outpace ozone-related mortality, when heat-related mortality projections are 67 percent of the combined regional total.
Areas of relatively high summer temperatures tend to coincide with more densely populated counties in the climate change simulations. The largest relative increases in ozone concentrations, however, are projected for less densely populated counties outside the urban core. The ability to discern these geographic variations is one of the advantages of applying downscaled models for health impact analyses.
Including the combined effects of warmer summers and warmer winters, net annual temperature-related mortality by the 2050s could be 18 percent greater than in the 1990s.
Even under slower growth assumptions (B2 scenario), heat-related summer mortality could increase 71 percent by the 2050s. If the effect of population growth is included in these projections, the overall impacts of climate changes on regional mortality are projected to be even greater.
Outreach and Stakeholder Activities
Over the course of this project, efforts were made to communicate findings in a variety of settings. Some of these are summarized here:
- In the fall of 2004, we developed and offered for the first time a graduate-level course in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia entitled, “Public Health Impacts of Climate Change.”
- In June 2005, findings from the study were used in drafting and supporting Local Law 661 of the NYC Council addressing the need for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions at the local.
- A press event in June 2004 at Columbia’s Earth Institute released key findings from the study and generated media coverage.
- Other press coverage over the years included two articles in the New York Times and pieces in the Poughkeepsie Journal, Science News, and Greenwire.
- Doctoral students were trained and supported under this grant.
Journal Articles on this Report : 18 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 64 publications | 26 publications in selected types | All 22 journal articles |
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Bell ML, Hobbs BF, Ellis H. Metrics matter: conflicting air quality rankings from different indices of air pollution. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2005;55(1):97-106. |
R828733 (Final) R828731 (2003) R828731 (Final) |
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Bell ML, Goldberg R, Hogrefe C, Kinney PL, Knowlton K, Lynn B, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Patz JA. Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities. Climatic Change 2007;82(1-2):61-76. |
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Chen Y, Hobbs BF. An oligopolistic power market model with tradable NOx permits. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2005;20(1):119-129. |
R828733 (Final) R828731 (2002) R828731 (Final) R831836 (2005) |
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Civerolo KL, Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Rosenthal J, Knowlton K, Kinney PL. Simulated effects of climate change on summertime nitrogen deposition in the eastern US. Atmospheric Environment 2008;42(9):2074-2082. |
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Civerolo K, Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Rosenthal J, Ku J-Y, Solecki W, Cox J, Small C, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Knowlton K, Kinney P. Estimating the effects of increased urbanization on surface meteorology and ozone concentrations in the New York City metropolitan region. Atmospheric Environment 2007;41(9):1803-1818. |
R828733 (Final) |
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Gego E, Hogrefe C, Kallos G, Voudouri A, Irwin JS, Rao ST. Examination of model predictions at different horizontal grid resolutions. Environmental Fluid Mechanics 2005;5(1-2):63-85. |
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Hogrefe C, Biswas J, Lynn B, Civerolo K, Ku J-Y, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Kinney PL. Simulating regional-scale ozone climatology over the eastern United States: model evaluation results. Atmospheric Environment 2004;38(17):2627-2638. |
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Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Civerolo K, Ku J-Y, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Gaffin S, Knowlton K, Kinney PL. Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2004;109(D22):D22301. |
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Jones JM, Hogrefe C, Henry RF, Ku J-Y, Sistla G. An assessment of the sensitivity and reliability of the relative reduction factor approach in the development of 8-hr ozone attainment plans. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2005;55(1):13-19. |
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Knowlton K, Rosenthal JE, Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Gaffin S, Goldberg R, Rosenzweig C, Civerolo K, Ku J-Y, Kinney PL. Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate. Environmental Health Perspectives 2004;112(15):1557-1563. |
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Knowlton K, Lynn B, Goldberg RA, Rosenzweig C, Hogrefe C, Rosenthal JK, Kinney PL. Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region. American Journal of Public Health 2007;9(11):2028-2034. |
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Lynn BH, Druyan L, Hogrefe C, Dudhia J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Rind D, Healy R, Rosenthal J, Kinney P. Sensitivity of present and future surface temperatures to precipitation characteristics. Climate Research 2004;28(1):53-65. |
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Lynn BH, Healy R, Druyan LM. Quantifying the sensitivity of simulated climate change to model configuration. Climatic Change 2009;92(3-4):275-298. |
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Lynn BH, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Rind D, Hogrefe C, Druyan L, Healy R, Dudhia J, Rosenthal J, Kinney P. Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies. Climatic Change 2010;99(3-4):567-587. |
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Mihailovic DT, Rao ST, Hogrefe C, Clark RD. An approach for the aggregation of aerodynamic surface parameters in calculating the turbulent fluxes over heterogeneous surfaces in atmospheric models. Environmental Fluid Mechanics 2002;2(4):315-337. |
R828733 (2001) R828733 (2003) R828733 (Final) R826373 (2002) |
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Mihailovic DT, Kapor D, Hogrefe C, Lazic J, Tosic T. Parameterization of albedo over heterogeneous surfaces in coupled land-atmosphere schemes for environmental modeling. Part I:theoretical background. Environmental Fluid Mechanics 2004;4(1):57-77. |
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Sheffield P, Knowlton K, Carr J, Konney P. Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma. MRS PROCEEDINGS 2011;41(3):251-257. |
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Solecki WD, Oliveri C. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model. Journal of Environmental Management 2004;72(1-2):105-115. |
R828733 (2003) R828733 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
ambient air, ozone, global climate, exposure, risk assessment, human health, modeling, general circulation models, climate models, satellite, Landsat, remote sensing, Northeast, New York, NY, New Jersey, NJ, Connecticut, CT, climate change, particulate matter, PM, tropospheric ozone, air pollution models, air quality, ambient air pollution, climate variations, environmental stressors, exposure and effects, extreme heat events, global change, green house gas concentrations, human activity, human exposure, integrated assessments, land use, landscape characterization, ozone concentrations, public health effects, remote sensing, Air, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Health Risk Assessment, State, climate change, particulate matter, Connecticut (CT), New Jersey (NJ), New York (NY), PM2.5, air pollution models, air quality, air quality modeling, airborne particulate matter, ambient air pollution, climate models, fine particle sources, fine particles, RAMS, regional climate modeling, resolution,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, particulate matter, climate change, State, Environmental Monitoring, tropospheric ozone, Atmospheric Sciences, ecosystem models, integrated assessments, remote sensing, air quality modeling, urban air, fine particles, PM 2.5, global change, airborne particulate matter, ambient air, climate variations, ozone, green house gas concentrations, New Jersey (NJ), air pollution models, climate models, extreme heat events, fine particle sources, human exposure, environmental stressors, Connecticut (CT), PM, human activity, landscape characterization, air quality, ambient air pollution, land use, public health effects, ozone concentrations, New York (NY)Relevant Websites:
New Yorkers’ Health Will Be Affected by Climate Change, New Study Shows Exit
The New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP) Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.