Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
EPA Grant Number: R828733Title: Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
Investigators: Kinney, Patrick L. , Solecki, William D. , Rosenthal, Joyce E. , Puri, Anjali , Hogrefe, Christian , Small, Christopher , Rosenzweig, Cynthia , Civerolo, Kevin , Knowlton, Kim , Ku, Michael , Avissar, Roni , Holloway, Tracey
Current Investigators: Kinney, Patrick L. , Soleki, William D. , Rosenthal, Joyce E. , Lynn, Barry , Hogrefe, Christian , Small, Christopher , Rosenzweig, Cynthia , Werth, David , Cox, Jennifer , Civerolo, Kevin , Knowlton, Kim , Ku, Michael , Goldberg, Richard , Avissar, Roni , Holloway, Tracey
Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , Montclair State University , The State University of New York , Duke University
Current Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , Duke University , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York State Department of Environmental Conservation , The State University of New York , University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2000 through August 31, 2003 (Extended to March 14, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2000 through August 31, 2001
Project Amount: $1,496,418
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to predict the future impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties.
Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. Both of these stressors may be impacted by future changes in the global climate, as well as continued expansion of human-dominated land uses in the region. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural science models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, in an effort to yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts (see Figure 1). The model will be applied to the New York metropolitan east coast (MEC) region. The following questions will be addressed:
· What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years, due to a range of possible scenarios of land use/land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the MEC region?
· How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years, due to a range of possible scenarios of LU and climate change in the metropolitan region?
· What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region?
· How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the region?
Progress Summary:
During the first year of this three-year project, we focused on developing the methodological basis for linking models for LU/LC, global climate change, regional climate change, atmospheric chemistry and pollution transport, and public health impacts. During this time, work on the integrated model involved:
· Model validation and calibration.
· Discussion of model parameters and linkages for analysis by climate and air quality models: selection of timeslices, domain for land use, grid size, and data requirements to link models. Climate, air quality, and health impacts will be examined during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.
· Selection of case study areas: six locations were selected to represent
the range of
population density across the region. For each of three density categories,
a pair of locations that diverge in household income was selected. Health impact
analysis, and model validation (global climate model (GCM) and regional climate
model (RCM)) will be conducted for each case study site at a fine resolution,
along with more detailed modeling with UrbanSim.
· Development of regional land use scenarios that correspond to IPCC global scenarios: four scenarios of changes in LU/LC and two global climate scenarios (run with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GCM)) will be analyzed.
· An External Advisory Committee comprised of government, non-profit, and industry experts was organized, and it met to provide feedback and advice on the project's objectives and analysis on at least an annual basis.
A summary of progress in each modeling group follows:
Global Climate Model (GISS GCM). The GISS Climate Impacts Group provides the linkages between the GCM and RCM simulations to create climate change scenarios for the project. The GISS GCM is a coupled atmospheric-ocean model (Russell, et al., 1995), with a grid resolution of 4° x 5° latitude and longitude, respectively.
Global climate was simulated with the GISS GCM for the period 1850-2100, with the IPCC A2 and B2 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas forcings. The SRES projections include changes of CO2, CH4, N2O, sulfates, CFC11, and CFC12. Full sets of GCM variables from these simulations for selected time-periods will be provided for the RCM simulations.
The IPCC SRES created a set of storylines and scenarios for future development
in Table 1 (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). The A2 scenario is characterized by
high CO2 emissions (30 growth rate/year (gt/yr) max),
relatively weak environmental concerns, and large population increases (15 billion
by 2100). Economic development is primarily regionally oriented, and per
SIMILARITIES: Both A2 & B2 have a REGIONAL focus
REFERENCE: present = 7 gt/yr CO2 production
PARAMETER | A2 HIGH-CO2 (30 GT/YR MAX) |
B2 MEDIUM-CO2 (15 GT/YR MAX) |
World | Differentiated, DIVIDED world; ECONOMY DRIVES |
Increased concern for environmental & social sustainability; REGIONAL STEWARDSHIP; ECON/ECOL VALUES BALANCED |
CAPITAL | Lower trade flows; Slower capital stock turnover |
Relatively slow rate of development esp. in developing nations |
TECHNOLOGY | Slower technological change; Tech. changes heterogeneous: fast in some places, slow in others |
Technological change still uneven; Mechanisms for international diffusion of technology & know-how HIGHER than in A2, yet weaker than A1 & B1 |
ECONOMY | "Consolidates" into series of economic regions; Economic growth uneven; Income gap does NOT narrow between now-industrial vs. developing nations; World GDP US$250 trillion by 2100 |
Stronger community support networks; Local inequity is reduced considerably; International income differences DECREASE; World GDP US$250 trillion by 2100 |
POPULATION | LARGEST pop. increase: 15 billion by 2100; Emphasis on family & community life; Fertility rates decline slowly |
MEDIUM pop.growth: 10 billion by 2100 (UN 1998 base "medium projection") |
MOBILITY & LAND USE | LESS mobile (people, capital, ideas); URBAN SPRAWL |
Urban & transport infrastructure is a particular focus of community innovation; LOW LEVEL OF CAR DEPENDENCE; LESS URBAN SPRAWL; LAND USE becomes better integrated at local level |
PER CAPITA INCOME | LOWER per capita income growth: Aver. world PCI LOW: US$7200 by 2050; US$16K by 2100 |
"MODERATE" economic growth; More affluent; Aver. world PCI INTERMEDIATE: US$12K by 2050 |
ENERGY | Resource availability determines fuel mix; Fossil fuel use relatively greater; Energy intensity declines slowly, by 0.5-.7%/year |
Hydrocarbon-based energy to 2100, yet gradual transition away from fossil fuels; Energy intensity of GDP declines 1%/yr (in line with average experience since 1800) |
FOOD | AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY is a main focus; Locally sustainable, high yields after initial period of soil erosion & water pollution |
Emphasis on local food reliance; Lower meat consumption in high-population density nations |
ENVIRONMENT | Env. concerns relatively WEAK; Regional & local control structure; Average summertime ozone levels increase by 30 ppb in northern mid-latitudes |
ENV. & HUMAN WELFARE ARE HIGH PRIORITIES (esp. at regional/local level); Less carbon-intensive technologies, better regional env. management decreases emissions of SO2, NOx, VOCs, ozone |
GOVERNMENTS | Social & political structures diversify; Protectionism among nations; Diversity; yet "conflicts between civilizations rather than globalizing economies may determine the geopolitical future of the world" |
Decentralized govts; International institutions decline in importance EXCEPT for env.protection |
capita economic growth and technological change is more fragmented and slower than other storylines. The B2 scenario is characterized by medium CO2 emissions (15gt/yr max), strong emphasis on environmental issues, and medium population growth (10 billion by 2100). The global population is continuously increasing at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines.
Anomalies were calculated by taking the difference (percent change) between the transient run and the control run for the same decade. Decadal values represent tri-decadal averages (e.g., 2020s = average of the 2010s, 2020s, and the 2030s).
Results show progressive warming and intensification of the hydrological cycle globally and regionally in both the A2 and the B2 scenarios (Rind, et al., 2002). Stronger climate effects are present in the A2 scenario. By the 2080s, the projected temperature increases for the region range from 2.0-2.5°C in the B2 scenario, and 3.0-3.5°C in the A2 scenario. Precipitation projections show the development of opposing precipitation trends in the 2050s and 2080s for the region, with increases up to 20 percent in the northwest and decreases of -10 percent in the south.
Regional Climate Model (ClimRAMS). We will use the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (ClimRAMS) in conjunction with the GISS GCM to produce climate variables (temperature, humidity, winds) at a very-high resolution in the Northeastern U.S., centering over New York City.
In its highest resolution grid, the nested ClimRAMS will be run with a grid space of 4 x 4 km. The two-way nesting capability of ClimRAMS will be exploited to assimilate the climate information from the GCM to the high-resolution grid. This will be achieved by using three nested grids. The task of validating the ClimRAMS for the Northeast U.S. using current climate as obtained from reanalysis started recently, and will include a sensitivity analysis of the various climatic parameters that have an impact on this specific region.
Land Use/Land Cover. During the first half of the year, the LU modeling team at Montclair State University undertook extensive literature review and data gathering with respect to LU modeling, and they used two models, SLEUTH and UrbanSim, for the LU modeling exercises. During the second half of the year, considerable time was spent on the definition of case study sites and the development of LU scenarios. Particular consideration was given to the IPCC scenarios and the New Jersey State Plan. In addition, the two LU models were installed, tested, and are in the process of being calibrated (especially SLEUTH).
SLEUTH was successfully run with the data that comes with the model; however, problems were experienced when applying the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Urban Dynamics Data. Because of inconsistencies in the land use input data, the Urban Growth Model (UGM) (urban versus non-urban) was run independently and produced the desired output. The model is currently being calibrated; the next step will be to run the Deltatron LU/LC Model (DLM).
The LU scenarios used for modeling future regional climate and air quality will include four alternate scenarios for local land use development:
· Scenario 1: No Change. LU held constant.
· Scenario 2: Extrapolation of Recent Trends. Conversion of land from natural to human-dominated uses, maturation of trees and resulting increase in leaf surface areas, and changes in anthropogenic pollution emissions resulting from changing LU.
· Scenario 3: IPCC A2 Scenario. Development of land from natural to human-dominated uses is faster and greater in magnitude than in Scenario 2.
· Scenario 4: IPCC B2 Scenario. Active Re-Greening. Under this scenario, the region would witness a doubling of vegetative cover for the year 2000 value, yet there will be spatio-temporal variation in the increase.
· Smart Growth Future. Urban and suburban sprawl public policies would be put into affect to lower the rate of per capita land consumption. New suburban development would be clustered at medium to high densities (e.g., 6-12 units/hectare) and infill of existing suburban areas would be promoted, leaving greater vegetation fractions in built-out areas and the region as a whole.
· IPCC: Current efforts are made to analyze the A2/B2 scenarios with respect to LU and to derive protocols for application in the study area.
· New Jersey State Plan: The guideline prescribed within the NJ State Land Use Plan is appropriate to apply to the entire study area. We will use the following planning area classifications to define the growth potential of lands in the New York metropolitan region under conditions of smart growth: metropolitan, suburban, fringe, rural, environmental sensitive/barrier island, critical environmental/cultural/historical sites, parks, and natural areas.
Remotely-sensed LU/LC data for the project is being analyzed. Work during the first year focused on validating vegetation fraction estimates derived from Landsat 7 imagery. Results thus far indicate that Landsat 7 vegetation fraction estimates are at least as accurate as previous results obtained from Landsat 5. Additional work has extended the multitemporal radiometric rectification algorithm developed for Landsat 5 to Landsat 7 imagery. This will make it possible to compare 1980s and 1990s era LC parameters (derived from Landsat 5) with analogous estimates of current LC properties (vegetation fraction, albedo, pervious surface) derived from Landsat 7. Regional scale inputs for the climate models have been identified and work has begun assembling parameter files for the 1 km datasets.
Air Quality Modeling. A significant amount of time was spent this first year in learning details about the different models and discussing their linkages. As a first step towards the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System/Community Multiscale Air Quality (RAMS/CMAQ) modeling system air quality simulations, the code of a RAMS3b to CMAQ interface program was obtained. The SMOKE emissions processing system was installed; NOx, VOC, SO2, and PM emissions for a test case in 1996, were generated successfully. Future year global emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) database were analyzed. Scaling factors for the growth of NOx and VOC emissions for different global scenarios were determined. These scaling factors will be used as guidance to generate emissions for the future-year RAMS/CMAQ simulations.
We also completed improvements for surface roughness parameterization, displacement height, and albedo over heterogeneous grid cells in atmospheric models. The proposed schemes might be integrated into the RAMS and/or CMAQ models during a later stage of this project.
Public Health Impacts. The Mailman School of Public Health impacts modeling team have included project activities such as:
· Public Health Impacts Model and Epidemiological Literature Review. Ozone and fine particulates (PM2.5) were chosen as the air pollution parameters of concern because they represent significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area, and because of their association with vehicle emissions, which are affected by changes in meteorology and LU/LC. Along with heat stress/extreme heat events, these comprise the three environmental risk factors whose impacts upon public health will be projected by the integrated model. In the first year, past and current epidemiological literature was collected and reviewed for each of these factors.
Exposure-risk coefficients linking exposures to specific health impacts for these three risk factors were taken from the existing literature, adapting methods from recent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory analyses. The exposure-risk coefficients will be used in the second year to translate initial regional model outputs for future levels of ozone, PM2.5, and heat stress episodes into preliminary estimates of adverse impacts on public health.
· Health Impacts Measures. Among the various mortality and morbidity measures employed in past epidemiological studies, four were chosen for use: short-term mortality; long-term mortality; daily hospital admissions for respiratory conditions; and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular conditions. These four health outcomes will be linked as follows to the environmental risk factors: deaths due to short-term heat exposures; deaths due to long-term and short-term PM2.5 exposures; hospital admissions from respiratory causes due to PM2.5 and ozone exposures; and hospital admissions from cardiovascular causes due to PM2.5 exposures.
· Baseline Incidence Rates for Health Impacts Measures. For mortality baseline rates, we will use county-level death rates as collected by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for the three respective study states (NY, NJ, and CT). For NY morbidity baseline measures, the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database will be used to estimate baseline daily average hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions for the NY study counties. For NJ and CT counties, county health departments will be the data source from which corresponding rates are compiled.
· Population and Demographics Projection Issues. Population and demographics maps are needed for each of the time periods under study (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). We have investigated using several sources for this data, and will rely primarily on the U.S. Census 2000 population totals (and densities) by county to serve as baseline population totals/densities for the 31-county study area. Similarly, the demographics collected by the 2000 U.S. Census for county race/ethnicity, age, gender, and household income will serve as our baseline population and demographic structure.
Future Activities:
The focus of our first year of work included discussion of the data and requirements for model linkages, project products, and research questions. We will focus on producing a first run of the integrated model, at a lower resolution for local meteorology and air quality, to analyze the public health impacts of future heat stress and air quality by fall 2002. This modeling plan is outlined below.
Additional objectives for the following year include:
· Inclusion of a second mesoscale regional climate model, MM5, to the project;
· Work on linkage between LU models, remotely-sensed data, RAMS and AQM: RAMS and CMAQ/Models-3 need specific input from land-use modelers; a preliminary list of LU/LC parameters was developed in Year 1. Parameters are needed as percentage values in each grid cell rather than absolute values. Also, we will explore whether the LU models can generate parameters needed by RAM and AQM for the different scenarios.
References:
Nakicenovic N, Swart R, eds. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000, 612 pp.
Russell GL, Miller JR, Rind D. A coupled atmosphere-ocean model for transient climate change studies. Atmosphere-Ocean 1995;33:683-730.
Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 64 publications | 26 publications in selected types | All 22 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Mihailovic DT, Rao ST, Hogrefe C, Clark RD. An approach for the aggregation of aerodynamic surface parameters in calculating the turbulent fluxes over heterogeneous surfaces in atmospheric models. Environmental Fluid Mechanics 2002;2(4):315-337. |
R828733 (2001) R828733 (2003) R828733 (Final) R826373 (2002) |
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Mihailovic DT, Rao ST, Alapaty K, Ku JY, Arsenic I, Lalic B. A study on the effects of subgrid-scale representation of land use on the boundary layer evolution using a 1-D model. Environmental Modelling & Software 2005;20(6):705-714. |
R828733 (2001) R826373 (2002) |
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Rind D, Healy R, Russell G. Climate change 1850 to 2100: a tale of two models. Journal of Geophysical Research. |
R828733 (2001) |
not available |
Supplemental Keywords:
ambient air, ozone, particulate matter, global climate, exposure, risk assessment, heat stress, human health, modeling, morbidity, mortality, general circulation models, climate models, satellite, landsat, respiratory, cardiovascular, remote sensing, Northeast, New York, NY, New Jersey, NJ, Connecticut, CT., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, particulate matter, climate change, State, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, tropospheric ozone, ecosystem models, integrated assessments, remote sensing, air quality modeling, urban air, fine particles, PM 2.5, global change, airborne particulate matter, ambient air, climate variations, ozone, green house gas concentrations, New Jersey (NJ), air pollution models, climate models, extreme heat events, fine particle sources, human exposure, environmental stressors, Connecticut (CT), PM, human activity, landscape characterization, air quality, ambient air pollution, land use, public health effects, ozone concentrations, New York (NY)Relevant Websites:
http://www.mailman.hs.columbia.edu/ehs/10.html Exit
http://aom.giss.nasa.gov/general.html Exit
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.