Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
EPA Grant Number: R828733Title: Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
Investigators: Kinney, Patrick L. , Solecki, William D. , Rosenthal, Joyce E. , Lynn, Barry , Hogrefe, Christian , Small, Christopher , Rosenzweig, Cynthia , Werth, David , Cox, Jennifer , Civerolo, Kevin , Knowlton, Kim , Ku, Michael , Goldberg, Richard , Avissar, Roni , Gaffin, Stuart , Holloway, Tracey
Current Investigators: Kinney, Patrick L. , Soleki, William D. , Rosenthal, Joyce E. , Lynn, Barry , Hogrefe, Christian , Small, Christopher , Rosenzweig, Cynthia , Werth, David , Cox, Jennifer , Civerolo, Kevin , Knowlton, Kim , Ku, Michael , Goldberg, Richard , Avissar, Roni , Holloway, Tracey
Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , New York State Department of Environmental Conservation , University of Wisconsin - Madison , The State University of New York , City University of New York , Duke University
Current Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , Duke University , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York State Department of Environmental Conservation , The State University of New York , University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2000 through August 31, 2003 (Extended to March 14, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2002 through August 31, 2003
Project Amount: $1,496,418
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The overall objective of the research project is to develop a modeling framework that incorporates global and regional climate, regional land use, and regional ambient air quality changes to explore the human health impacts of alternative future scenarios of global and regional change. Over the coming century, Americans will be confronted by significant environmental changes caused by both a warming global climate and increasing urbanization. Scientists recently have estimated that global average surface temperature may increase by between 1.4 to 5.8ºC (2.4 to 10.4ºF) by 2100 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001). Simultaneously, human populations are carrying out rapid and substantial conversions of land from natural to human-dominated uses. To be responsible stewards of both human health and biological diversity in the coming century, society will need better tools to describe, predict, and manage the interactions between these global drivers and the health of the Earth’s inhabitants. The New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP) is a research group organized to begin addressing these issues locally in the New York metropolitan region (NYMR) (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. The Integrated Modeling Framework of the New York Climate and Health Project
Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone (O3) represent two significant current public health stressors in the NYMR, and both may be impacted by future changes in the global climate as well as continued expansion of human-dominated land uses in the region.
We linked models describing the behaviors of these systems to yield improved
tools for assessing the future public health impacts of climate change in the
context of existing environmental stressors. The model is being applied to the
31-county NYMR. Specifically, we are answering the following questions:
- What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years as a result of a range of possible scenarios of changes in land use/land cover and climate in the region?
- How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of O3 change over the next 80 years as a result of a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region?
- What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes?
- How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity across the region?
Progress Summary:
Approach
To put our work into context, we defined future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, O3 precursor emissions, land use changes, and population growth on the basis of two existing growth scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The A2 scenario is characterized by relatively high CO2 emissions (30 gigaton/year maximum), weaker environmental concerns, and large population increases (15 billion by 2100). The B2 scenario is characterized by medium CO2 emissions (15 gigaton/year maximum), stronger emphasis on environmental issues, and medium population growth (10 billion by 2100). Currently, world CO2 emissions are estimated at about 7-8 gigaton/year from our population of 6.4 billion.
For modeling runs downscaled from the global to the regional and urban scales, we defined a modeling domain that included the eastern half of the United States. The health impacts domain was defined as the 31-county NYMR, comprised of parts of northern New Jersey, western Connecticut, southern New York State, and Long Island. Within this region, we assessed impacts at a range of grid scales, with the finest scale being 4 x 4 km.
General circulation model (GCM) outputs were available on an hourly basis from the 1990s through the 2080s. Regional climate and air quality simulations on 36 km grids over the eastern U.S. domain were carried out for the summer months of June-August for 5 consecutive mid-decadal years (i.e., 1993-1997) of the 1990s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. For finer resolution simulations at 12 and 4 km within the NYMR, episodes of high temperature and O3 levels were selected. For assessing public health impacts, we focused the analysis on the effects related to premature mortality.
Public Health Impact Methodology and Assessment
Projections of regional climate and air quality were assessed under alternative scenarios of global climate change and regional land use change, and these projections then have been used in a risk assessment framework, with and without assumptions of population growth, to examine potential public health impacts of both extreme heat events and O3 air quality over the coming century.
Health impacts were assessed for O3 air quality (from simulated 1-hour daily maximum O3 concentrations, in ppb) and ambient temperatures (as daily mean temperatures in °F). Simulated future changes in these two environmental stressors were compared to conditions in the 1990s across the region. Concentration-response coefficients for O3 and heat effects were taken from the recent environmental epidemiological literature.
The public health impacts questions for temperature and O3-related mortality during Year 3 of the project were focused on the following:
- What is the net effect on annual regional mortality from warmer summers in the 2050s versus the 1990s, considering the impacts of warmer winters in the 2050s diminishing cold-related mortality?
- How do the two different spatial scales at which temperatures have been projected by the global and regional climate models—the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM 4° x 5° latitude/longitude, and Mesoscale Model, Version 5 (MM5) at 36 km—affect mortality projections?
- How do projections for heat and O3-related mortality within the metropolitan region compare?
Overall, our results to date using the relatively high growth A2 scenario suggest:
- In a typical summer of the 1990s, about 840 deaths in the NYMR were heat-related and approximately 1,300 were O3-related.
- Under a changing climate, these estimates are projected to increase. Summer heat-related mortality could increase 55 percent by the 2020s, more than double (129% increase) by the 2050s, and more than triple (258% increase) by the 2080s.
- Areas of relatively high summer temperatures tend to coincide with more densely populated counties in the climate change simulations; the ability to discern these geographic variations is one of the advantages of applying downscaled models for health impact analyses.
- Including the combined effects of warmer summers and warmer winters, net annual temperature-related mortality by the 2050s could be 25 percent greater than in the 1990s.
- Summer heat-related mortality may exceed O3-related mortality by the 2050s.
- Climate change alone (ignoring changes in pollution emissions) may increase O3 concentrations across the region and result in a 5 percent increase in summertime O3-related mortality by the 2050s.
Even under slower growth assumptions (the B2 scenario), heat-related summer mortality could double by the 2050s (102% increase). If the effect of population growth is included in these projections, the overall impacts of climate changes on regional mortality will be even greater.
Figure 2 illustrates projected increases in each county’s summer heat-related mortality for future decades under the A2 growth scenario versus the 1990s. Urban counties are projected to experience relatively greater increases in summer heat-related mortality than counties outside New York City.
Figure 2. Projected Increases in Summer Heat-Related Mortality by County, Using A2 Growth Assumptions for Future Decades as Compared to the 1990s
Ozone-related summer mortality in the 1990s and the 2050s was calculated using
a risk assessment framework. A manuscript was submitted to Environmental
Health Perspectives, entitled “Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts
Under a Changing Climate” (Knowlton, et al., 2004). Among the findings
is that ozone-related mortality is projected to increase by 5 percent because
of climate change alone for the aggregated 31-county study area in the 2050s,
as compared to the 1990s. When the effects of regional population growth and
changes in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions consistent with the
A2 scenario also are included, the projected percentage increase climbs to 54
percent.
Global Climate Modeling
Global climate modeling was carried out using the GISS Coupled Atmospheric-Ocean Global Climate Model (GISS GCM), Version III, with a grid resolution of 4º x 5º latitude and longitude. Global climate was simulated for the period 1850-2100 with the IPCC A2 and B2 greenhouse gas forcings. These include projected changes in CO2, CH4, N2O, sulfates, CFC-11, and CFC-12. Full sets of GCM variables from these simulations for the selected 5-year time periods were provided to the regional climate model (RCM) groups for use as boundary conditions in their simulations. In addition, the GCM outputs for daily mean temperature at the earth’s surface were used directly in health impact analyses within the NYMR.
Figure 3 plots surface temperature projections over Central Park for three decades of the 21st century under the A2 and B2 scenarios expressed as changes from model estimates for the 1990s. Decadal values represent tridecadal averages (e.g., 2020s = average of the 2010s, 2020s, and 2030s). Results show progressive regional warming in both the A2 and B2 scenarios, with stronger climate effects present in the A2 scenario with the greater greenhouse gas forcing. By the 2080s, the projected temperature increases for the region range 2.0-2.5°C in the B2 scenario and 3.0-3.5°C in the A2 scenario.
Figure 3. Projected Temperature Increases for Central Park,
NYC (“Current Trend” is based on 1900-2000 data)
Regional Climate Modeling
To assess regional and local impacts of climate change in the NYMR, we linked the GISS GCM with the mesoscale climate model MM5. We utilize MM5 simulations driven by the GISS GCM through boundary and initial condition inputs that were performed for the summer seasons (June-August) for 5 consecutive mid-decadal years (e.g., 1993-1997) in the 1990s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s for the A2 scenario, and 5 mid-decadal years for the 2050s for the B2 scenario. The MM5 was applied in a nested-grid mode, with an inner grid having a horizontal resolution of 36 km over the eastern United States and an outer grid having a horizontal resolution of 108 km covering most of the continental United States. Figure 4 shows observed and simulated surface temperatures for the 1990s generated from the GISS GCM and by the MM5 run at 108 km and 36 km scales. Recent MM5 modeling at 4 km has incorporated altered land surface characteristics associated with land use projections for the region. The 36 km and 4 km simulations capture some of the spatial detail that is missed at a lower resolution, such as over the Appalachian Mountains, and the higher temperatures associated with urban areas through the “heat island” effect. During Year 3 of the project, NYCHP investigators submitted proposals for further use of finer resolution MM5 simulations in analyzing the effects of urbanization on surface temperatures and meteorology.
Figure 4. Observed and Simulated Surface Temperatures for the
1990s at Alternative Scales
Results from these simulations were used to evaluate regional health impacts of temperature extremes and were used to perform air quality simulations. Preliminary findings from the regional climate work include:
- The MM5 can be used in conjunction with the GCM output to obtain meaningful results for use in regional and local health impact studies, as well as planning future water resource and energy needs.
- For the current climate of the NYMR, finer scale (36 km) GISS-MM5 simulations performed better than those of the coarse-scaled GISS GCM and GISS-MM5 at 108 km.
- The results of downscaling simulations are highly sensitive to the choice of model physics parameterizations. The differences due to physics options in the region were at times as large (~2.5ºC) as projected changes for the 2050s.
- Temperature and precipitation validation showed that two model configurations (MIBR and MIGR) compared best to observations in the 1990s over the United States. The MIBR configuration performed better than MIGR in simulating the 1990s climate of the metropolitan region.
- The timing of precipitation determines the severity of climate change impacts that can occur in response to changes in the GCM forcing, as CO2 and other greenhouse gas concentrations increase.
- GISS-MM5 simulations at 4 km resolution with more detailed land use/land cover characterization of urban areas and vegetation in the region show improved representation of the urban heat island.
- GISS-MM5 projections of temperature and precipitation change for the 2050s (the A2 scenario) showed similar patterns across the United States, although localized differences did exist. For the NYMR, projected temperature increases in the 2050s showed a range of 2.1-2.5ºC.
Land Use Modeling
To evaluate future scenarios of urban land use change in the NYMR, we utilized the SLEUTH program with growth scenarios linked to the SRES A2 and B2 story lines. SLEUTH is an acronym for a set of growth-inducing variables that can be used to define land use change (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion zones, land Use, Transportation, and Hill shading), and it also employs a set of growth parameters (defined by the past patterns of urbanization) and growth rules. The software structure enables one to define future growth as a projection of past growth, as well as to define alternative growth scenarios (e.g., slowed conversion, more rapid conversion).
SLEUTH simulations suggest that there could be significant land use and land
cover change in the NYMR during the first half of the 21st century. For example,
the Urban Growth Model component of SLEUTH projects a loss of 47 percent and
67 percent in 2020 and 2050, respectively, of the total nonurban land present
in 1990 under the A2 scenario (Figure 5). The rate of conversion slows significantly
during the 2020-2050 period because the number of available sites (i.e., pixels)
becomes limited, and instead, an increased proportion of the new growth takes
place as slower edge growth or transportation corridor related growth. Projected
rapid conversion takes place where significant conversion had occurred during
the period 1960-1990 and where the development potential was high (e.g., areas
with relatively flat terrain, access to highways, etc.). As a result, conversion
was particularly extensive in eastern Long Island and central New Jersey. The
more mountainous and isolated northern parts of the region incurred less development
during this study period.
Figure 5. Maps of Land Use Classifications for the 1990s (Observed)
and 2050s (Projected by SLEUTH in the A2 Scenario)
We also employed land use projections to alter land surface parameters used as inputs to the regional climate and air quality models. Land surface characteristics derived from satellite (Landsat) imagery—vegetation fraction and albedo—were used to help define predicted changes in urbanization in the 31-county region. Using these land surface qualities, the land use change estimates projected for the region were divided into three urban vegetation categories: low, medium, and high density urban.
The model results have utility for both public health exposure and risk analysis. Project work is planned to use the urban land use model results to develop estimates of future population growth in suburbanizing parts of the region at the U.S. census tract level (spatial areas defined by approximately 5,000 residents). The amount of urban land development in each tract will be associated with a relative increase in population.
Regional Ozone Modeling
For air quality simulations, we use the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. The GCM-MM5 linked model provides the meteorological inputs needed for the air quality simulations. The outputs from the air quality simulations have been used to evaluate the modeling system against observed O3 data, to project future O3 concentrations throughout the 36 km eastern U.S. modeling domain under different climate scenarios, and for assessing potential public health impacts based within the NYMR.
Climate change can influence the concentration and distribution of air pollutants through a variety of direct and indirect processes, including the modification of biogenic emissions, the change of chemical reaction rates, mixed-layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and modifications of synoptic flow patterns that govern pollutant transport. For example, warmer temperatures can result in increased concentrations of photochemical oxidants, and many past studies have revealed the impact of meteorological conditions on episodes of high O3 concentrations.
The modeling and analysis activities for Year 3 of the project were focused on the following two questions:
- How well does the GISS-MM5/Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)/CMAQ system simulate summertime surface temperature and O3 climatology for the 1990s over the eastern United States?
- How do changes in regional climate affect regional O3 air quality, and what is the relative importance of regional climate change, changes in regional biogenic and anthropogenic emissions, and changes in global tropospheric background conditions on future year O3 air quality?
To address the first question, simulations were performed for five summer seasons in the 1990s and compared extensively against temperature and O3 observations. To address the second question, simulations were performed for five summers each for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under the A2 scenario and the 2050s B2 scenario. Additionally, sensitivity simulations were performed to isolate the effects of changed climate, changed anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and changed global background conditions for the hottest summer in the 1990s and the 2050s A2 scenario.
Using the NYCHP modeling system under the A2 scenario, we estimated hourly surface O3 concentrations over the 36 km domain for five mid-decadal summers in the 1990s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s; results for the 1990s and 2050s are shown in Figure 6. This figure illustrates changes that may occur in summertime average daily maximum O3 concentrations purely caused by projected climate change (top right panel), purely caused by projected emissions changes (bottom left panel), and because of the combined effects of changes in both drivers (bottom right panel).
The most important findings of the air quality modeling and analysis are:
- The GCM/MM5/CMAQ system performs well in simulating summertime regional-scale O3 climatology and the frequency and duration of extreme O3 events over the eastern United States under present-day conditions.
- The frequency and duration of extreme O3 events is predicted to increase under the A2 climate scenario for future decades.
- Regional climate change was found to cause significant increases in the simulated fourth-highest summertime 8-hour O3 concentration in future years. This result implies that it may be important to consider the effects of a changing climate when planning for the future attainment of regional-scale air quality standards such as the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards that are based on the fourth-highest annual daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration.
Figure 6. Summertime Daily Maximum 1-Hour Ozone Concentrations,
Averaged Over 5 Mid-Decadal Years, From Simulations With Current/Future Climate/Emissions
In connection with the planned high-resolution (4 km) simulations, we also participated in a model evaluation study comparing the performance of meteorological and air quality models at different spatial resolutions. Furthermore, simulations were performed to assess the impact of climate change on the efficacy of domestic emission control programs, and initial steps were performed to link output from the land use change model to the biogenic emissions model used to generate emissions inputs for the CMAQ Model.
A Reduced-Form Model for Assessing Future Climate and Air Quality
The NYCHP framework of linked dynamical models allows detailed analysis of the climate and chemical processes contributing to future health impacts. Although the NYCHP approach will serve as a state-of-the-art example for other regional studies, it demands extensive computational resources, high levels of expertise, and multidisciplinary teamwork.
With the objective of developing an easily transferable, low cost tool for assessing first-order interactions between climate, air quality, and health, NYCHP-affiliated researchers at the University of Wisconsin at Madison are developing a reduced-form model based on the NYCHP structure. Starting with the same National Aeronautics and Space Administration GISS GCM output, statistical downscaling methods are applied (in lieu of MM5/Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), providing input to a series of static box models of O3 photochemistry (in lieu of CMAQ). Results from each step of the “simple” model will be compared with NYCHP results, as well as with O3 measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Aerometric Information Retrieval System/Air Quality Subsystem database.
The statistically downscaled GCM climate data and a static box model of O3
photochemistry (Klonecki, 1997) are used to estimate surface level O3 throughout
the New York City region. In addition to downscaling monthly mean global climate
data for 1990-1999 from the 4° x 5° NASA GISS GCM (Russell, 1995), the
reduced-form model will be applied to 2.5° x 2.5° National Centers for
Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis
data. Both global sets will be downscaled to the NYCHP-consistent 36 km x 36
km grid over the study domain. The clim.pact downscaling algorithm (Benestad,
2003) calibrates a relationship between GCM data and summer monthly mean station
observations of temperature and precipitation at 23 sites from the National
Climatic Data Center’s U.S. Historical Climate Network by multiple linear
regression using step-wise screening and common empirical orthogonal functions.
Preliminary results from this study are expected in May 2004, with manuscript
submission in fall 2004. References:
Curriero FC, Samat JM, Zegar SL. Re: “On the use of generalized additive
models in time-series studies of air pollution and health” and “Temperature
and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States.” American
Journal of Epidemiology 2003;158(1):93-94.
Benestad RE. The clim.pact package. (The Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Norwegian Research Council’s RegClim Programme.) Retrieved 2003 from http://cranr-project.org. Exit
Klonecki AA, Levy H II. Tropospheric chemical ozone tendencies in CO-CH4-NOy-H2O systems: their sensitivity to variations in environmental parameters and their application to a global chemistry transport model study. The Journal of Geophysical Research 1997;102(D17):21,221-21,237.
Russell GL, Miller JR, Rind D. A coupled atmosphere-ocean model for transient climate change studies. Atmosphere-Ocean, 1995;33(4):683-730.
Future Activities:
The major objectives for Year 4 (ending March 2005) are to: (1) incorporate more accurate land-cover data into the mesoscale models, derived from analysis of Landsat vegetative fraction, and to incorporate the projections of future land use and land cover for the 2020s and 2050s into the mesoscale climate models; (2) complete fine-resolution modeling for the integrated modeling system at 4 km horizontal resolution for climate and air quality modeling simulations of summer seasons in the 2050s, with use of this output in subsequent health risk assessments for O3 and heat-related mortality; and (3) use fine-resolution MM5 simulations in urban heat island research. NYCHP investigators received additional support for further higher resolution MM5 simulations to analyze the effects of urbanization on surface temperatures and meteorology in the metropolitan region.
Over the next year, the health impacts team will continue to work with the model outputs for atmospheric chemistry and global and regional climate to evaluate relative changes in climate-related health impacts in current versus future decades. We plan to use SLEUTH land use model projections at 4 km horizontal resolution to estimate future population density changes in the region. Applying these, along with 4 km climate and air quality simulations, the health risk assessment model should be able to discern which local neighborhoods may be most vulnerable to climate-related changes in environmental health in future decades.
Results from a series of these analyses will coincide with the writing and submission of manuscripts to the appropriate peer-reviewed journals. The next health analysis will evaluate the net change in regional temperature-related mortality projected over the entire year, using temperature simulations from the GISS GCM at 4° x 5° resolution, under both the A2 and B2 scenario assumptions. The GISS GCM output projects 365 days (i.e., both winter and summer) temperatures for each of 10 years in each decade (1990s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). By applying the corresponding concentration-response functions (Curriero and Samet, et al., 2003), which describe heat- and cold-related mortality changes typical of New York City, we will compare the combined impact of diminished mortality because of warmer, more moderate winter temperatures along with increased mortality during warmer, less moderate summer temperatures. The target journal for this manuscript is Science.
In another analysis/paper, we will compare GCM- versus RCM-derived projections of temperature-related mortality during summers of the 1990s versus the A2 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. We will evaluate the overall effect of model resolution (GISS GCM at 4° x 5° versus the MM5 RCM at 36 km resolution) on these health impact projections. Additionally, we will compare the O3 versus temperature mortality impacts projected using the 36 km resolution RCM model simulations. Target journals for this publication include Atmospheric Environment or the International Journal of Biometeorology.
Next, the effects of changing land use will be incorporated into the regional temperature and air quality simulations, and corresponding mortality changes will be projected. The target journal for this publication is the Journal of American Planning Association or one of those listed above.
Finally, we will simulate future summer temperature and O3 conditions at 4 km resolution to determine those neighborhoods that potentially could be most affected by climate-related regional environmental changes. This analysis will be conducted for several 2-week periods within each summer, identified from the 36 km simulations as relatively intense heat/O3 periods. We will combine the regional identification of those areas with the greatest relative increases in summer heat and O3 (as determined by comparing 2050s A2 versus 1990s) with available data on the current demographic makeup within those neighborhoods, to project future neighborhood-specific mortality impacts. The target journal for this publication is the American Journal of Public Health.
The principal research objective of the NYCHP was to assess potential future health impacts of climate and land use change for the metropolitan region, for projected changes in both temperature and O3. Additionally, future extensions may incorporate other parameters of weather and additional pollutants such as fine particulate matter.
Journal Articles on this Report : 9 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 64 publications | 26 publications in selected types | All 22 journal articles |
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Gego E, Hogrefe C, Kallos G, Voudouri A, Irwin JS, Rao ST. Examination of model predictions at different horizontal grid resolutions. Environmental Fluid Mechanics 2005;5(1-2):63-85. |
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Hogrefe C, Biswas J, Lynn B, Civerolo K, Ku J-Y, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Kinney PL. Simulating regional-scale ozone climatology over the eastern United States: model evaluation results. Atmospheric Environment 2004;38(17):2627-2638. |
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Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Civerolo K, Ku J-Y, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Gaffin S, Knowlton K, Kinney PL. Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2004;109(D22):D22301. |
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Jones JM, Hogrefe C, Henry RF, Ku J-Y, Sistla G. An assessment of the sensitivity and reliability of the relative reduction factor approach in the development of 8-hr ozone attainment plans. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2005;55(1):13-19. |
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Knowlton K, Rosenthal JE, Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Gaffin S, Goldberg R, Rosenzweig C, Civerolo K, Ku J-Y, Kinney PL. Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate. Environmental Health Perspectives 2004;112(15):1557-1563. |
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Lynn BH, Druyan L, Hogrefe C, Dudhia J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Rind D, Healy R, Rosenthal J, Kinney P. Sensitivity of present and future surface temperatures to precipitation characteristics. Climate Research 2004;28(1):53-65. |
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Lynn BH, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Hogrefe C, Rind D, Healy R, Dudhia J, Biswas J, Druyan L, Kinney P, Rosenthal J. The GISS-MM5 regional climate modeling system part I: sensitivity of simulated current and future climate to model configuration. Journal of Climate (in review, 2004). |
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Mihailovic DT, Rao ST, Hogrefe C, Clark RD. An approach for the aggregation of aerodynamic surface parameters in calculating the turbulent fluxes over heterogeneous surfaces in atmospheric models. Environmental Fluid Mechanics 2002;2(4):315-337. |
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Solecki WD, Oliveri C. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model. Journal of Environmental Management 2004;72(1-2):105-115. |
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Supplemental Keywords:
ambient air, ozone, global climate, exposure, risk assessment, human health, modeling, general circulation models, climate models, satellite, Landsat, remote sensing, Northeast, New York, NY, New Jersey, NJ, Connecticut, CT, air toxics, climate change, particulate matter, PM, tropospheric ozone, air pollution models, air quality, ambient air pollution, climate variations, ecosystem models, environmental stressors, exposure and effects, extreme heat events, global change, green house gas concentrations, human activity, human exposure, integrated assessments, land use, landscape characterization, ozone concentrations, public health effects, remote sensing, stratospheric ozone., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, particulate matter, climate change, State, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, tropospheric ozone, ecosystem models, integrated assessments, remote sensing, air quality modeling, urban air, fine particles, PM 2.5, global change, airborne particulate matter, ambient air, climate variations, ozone, green house gas concentrations, New Jersey (NJ), air pollution models, climate models, extreme heat events, fine particle sources, human exposure, environmental stressors, Connecticut (CT), PM, human activity, landscape characterization, air quality, ambient air pollution, land use, public health effects, ozone concentrations, New York (NY)Relevant Websites:
http://www.mailman.hs.columbia.edu/ehs/research.html
http://www.earth.columbia.edu/news/2004/story06-11-04.html
http://www.geography.hunter.cuny.edu/luca/ Exit
http://www.cmascenter.org/2003_workshop/session2/hogrefe_abstract.pdf Exit
http://cran.r-project.org Exit
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2004/2004_HogrefeBiswas.pdf Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.