Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes in Forests and Grasslands of the U.S. Southwest
EPA Grant Number: R828732Title: Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes in Forests and Grasslands of the U.S. Southwest
Investigators: Morehouse, Barbara J. , Orr, Barron J. , Christopherson, Gary L. , Yool, Stephen R. , Overpeck, Jonathan T. , Swetnam, Thomas W.
Institution: University of Arizona
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: November 1, 2000 through October 1, 2003
Project Amount: $1,260,993
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The objective of this research project was to improve forest/grassland ecosystem health and sustainability through better understanding of the consequences of interactions among human factors, climate, biophysical processes, and fire in the U.S. Southwest.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
As validated through structured user evaluation sessions, Fire-Climate-Society (FCS)-1 produces fire risk maps that reflect the fundamental biophysical and human dimensions of our four study areas: the Catalina-Rincon, Huachuca, Chiricahua, and Jemez Mountain ranges. We have scientifically characterized the ways that climatic conditions before and during fire season, as well as larger scale climate and weather patterns and processes, affect fuel moisture levels, influence fire regimes, and contribute to interannual patterns of extreme fire events. Significant links between climate and fuel moisture conditions exist; these were used successfully for developing the climate-fuel moisture scenarios needed to run the FCS-1 model. We have developed a robust method for data representing the integration of fuel moisture stress, fire return interval departure, large fire probability, human ignition probability, and lightning ignition probability within a five-layer fire probability submodel. The integration of a richer subset of human dimension layers into FCS-1, including personal landscape values, property values, recreation values, and species habitat richness, provides an improved representation of overall fire risk in the four study areas. We developed a valid method for allowing Web-based use of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to weight the components of the model through online pairwise comparisons. Innovative Web-based programming allows FCS-1 to withstand substantial concurrent online use and allows use across both PC and Mac platforms. Further, the model can be run on ordinary computers and laptops. The design of the Wildlife Alternatives (WALTER) Web Site provides a rich source of additional information, including explanations of key federal policies and links to other Web sites.
Conclusions:
FCS-1 has demonstrated that integration of biophysical and human dimension factors (i.e., fire, climate, and society) into a Web-based fire risk geographic information system (GIS) model for strategic planning can be achieved successfully. The model exemplifies the kinds of scientifically robust decision support tools that combine usefulness, usability, and relevance to community members as well as fire managers, scientists, and decision-makers. FCS-1 allows users not only to produce fire risk maps based on their own weighting of variables and scenario selection, but also to produce multiple fire risk maps through experimenting with alternative weightings and scenarios.
The research that led to development of FCS-1, and the ancillary decision tools provided on the WALTER Web Site, enhance understanding of/solutions for environmental problems in the following ways:
- The innovative integration of variables representing climate, fire, and human value factors into a single GIS model has led to improved understanding of how the combined impacts of such variables influence the nature, distribution, and intensity of fire risk at scales relevant to management concerns and needs.
- The climate-based data at a scale of 1 km provides significant new insights on how climate actually influences fire risk.
- The research design emphasizes: (1) iteration throughout the course of the research project with key individuals; and (2) evaluation sessions involving both experts and community members, leading to improved understanding of the nature and array of fire management issues, as well as the array, extensiveness, and quality of information available at relatively fine scales to address those issues.
- The evaluation sessions also provided valuable opportunities to improve scientific understanding of: (1) the ways in which models like FCS-1 actually might be employed in strategic planning activities to address fire risk problems; and (2) the levels of confidence held by decisionmakers, scientists, and community members regarding the various types of scientific information contained in the model.
- The integration of the AHP function as a user interface with the model generated important insights into how people go about assigning relative importance to the various components of the model, as well as how different weighting schemes influence model outcomes.
- By providing a richer array of data than is provided in similar models, FCS-1 constitutes an innovative decision tool for exploring and evaluating alternative fire and fuel management strategies over time periods from weeks to years.
- The user friendliness of the model enhances environmental problem solving by providing opportunities for community members, as well as managers and other decisionmakers who are not GIS experts, to run FCS-1, explore alternative model runs by varying scenario selection and AHP choices, and share the results of the model runs.
- The innovative architecture of FCS-1 facilitates adaptation to other mountain ranges and ecosystems in the Southwest as well as in other areas of the U.S. West, thus potentially broadening the range of contexts in which it can be used to understand and address environmental problems related to wildland fire.
- The inclusion on the WALTER Web Site of additional tools (animated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index greenness maps, fire history maps, and fire-climate regression analyses) and of a series of Web pages highlighting the links between fire and major U.S. policies (e.g., National Environmental Policy Act, Endangered Species Act, etc.) provides additional information useful for assessing fire risk and potential alternatives for addressing that risk.
Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 70 publications | 9 publications in selected types | All 5 journal articles |
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Crimmins MA, Comrie AC. Interactions between antecedent climate and wildfire variability across south-eastern Arizona. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2005;13(4):455-466. |
R828732 (2003) R828732 (Final) R832220 (Final) |
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Morehouse BJ, O'Brien S. Facilitating public involvement in strategic planning for wildland fire management. Professional Geographer 2008;60(4):495-507. |
R828732 (Final) |
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Morehouse BJ, O'Brien S, Christopherson G, Johnson P. Integrating values and risk perceptions into a decision support system. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2010;19(1):123-136. |
R828732 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
wildland fire management, strategic planning, integrated GIS model, vulnerability, terrestrial ecosystem, integrated assessment, regionalization, scaling, public policy, logging, tourism, recreation sectors,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Southwest, Ecology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, State, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Forestry, ecological exposure, logging, environmental monitoring, human impacts, biodiversity, New Mexico (NM), fire models, recreatioonal stress, grasslands, ecological impacts, climate impacts, Arizona (AZ), climate models, fire regimes, forests, environmental stressors, GIS, fire regimes in forests and grasslands, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
http://walter.arizona.edu Exit
http://gis.esri.com/library/userconf/proc04/docs/pap1665.pdf Exit
http://www.esri.com/library/userconf/archive.html Exit
http://www.mif.uni-freiburg.de/isb Exit
http://www.skyislandalliance.org/madreanconference/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.