Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes in Forests and Grasslands of the U.S. Southwest
EPA Grant Number: R828732Title: Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes in Forests and Grasslands of the U.S. Southwest
Investigators: Morehouse, Barbara J. , Orr, Barron J. , Christopherson, Gary L. , Yool, Stephen R. , Overpeck, Jonathan T. , Swetnam, Thomas W.
Institution: University of Arizona
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: November 1, 2000 through October 1, 2003
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2000 through October 1, 2001
Project Amount: $1,260,993
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The objective of this research project is to improve forest/grassland ecosystem health and sustainability through a better understanding of the consequences of interactions among human factors, climate, biophysical processes, and fire in the United States Southwest.
Progress Summary:
We staffed our project and identified project teams, and reached consensus on a conceptual framework for a geographic information system (GIS) model. We have developed a Web site and server structure, evaluated options for a Web applications database, set up an ArcView Internet Map Server (ArcIMS), and published a dynamic Web map prototype. We also began work on Web tool development. With regard to fire history, we assembled fire scar, fire ignition, lightning strike data, and have digitized currently available fire perimeter data. In terms of fuels/climate development, we collected historical fire statistics by vegetation type and initiated the development of the climate component model. For the integrated model, we collected digital elevation model data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), human factors data from sources such as TIGER files, and data sets from numerous site-specific sources. We initiated a data dictionary using an ACCESS database. We also performed preliminary analysis of correlation between fire starts and roads, and made progress toward methodology for weighing GIS pixels and polygons, based on biophysical, climate, and human-factor inputs. We surveyed fire management and fire information officers to determine their knowledge and skill base, their evaluation of the most and least helpful policies, and their view of current issues and trends over the past several decades. We also initiated an institutional analysis of major laws and policies related to fire management in context of climatic conditions and human factors.
Future Activities:
Our future plans include completing data acquisition, compiling fire scar metadata, and conducting quality-assurance procedures for all data and for all model outputs. We will be creating indexed fire hazard layers for the GIS model, based on inputs using climate-cued fuel moisture, fire behavior, and simulation maps. Using outputs from the DAYMET simulator, we will be modeling fuel moisture extent, which will be used to adjust fire hazard in each pixel of the fire hazard map. We plan to produce a 1-km wind map, which will also be used to adjust per-pixel fire hazard. Using the taxonomy of fire behavior models that define the National Fire Danger Rating System as the basis, we intend to produce fire behavior maps from GAP vegetation maps, satellite imagery, and fieldwork. The results will be used to adjust per-pixel fire hazard.
We plan to use FARSITE to conduct fire spread simulations based on Monte-Carlo techniques, with the ultimate goal of producing fire probability maps. The probabilities will be used to adjust fire risk for each 1-km cell on the fire hazard map. We conduct an array of statistical analyses to determine the relationship between fire and proxies for human-wildland interaction (e.g., roads, population density, etc.). We will develop a fire probability surface based on these proxies, finalize our valuation scheme, and integrate the results into the model to produce fully-integrated fire risk maps. We plan to continue development on our Web site, and of Web server-based delivery of the model; including evaluation and development of tools to facilitate the model?s use. We will complete our institutional analysis to identify the best entry points for the model and its outputs. We plan to entrain community members and others into alpha and beta tests of the model, and to adjust the model based on results of these early tests. We will introduce the final model at workshops convenient to agency entities and community members.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 70 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
land, soil, watersheds, precipitation, climate, risk, ecological effects, vulnerability, animal, population, stressor, cumulative effects, ecosystem, indicators, scaling, terrestrial, habitat, integrated model, innovative technology, public policy, decisionmaking, community-based, cost, nonmarket valuation, survey, preferences, sociological, spatial, temporal, geographical, geographic information system, GIS, remote sensing, modeling, monitoring, surveys, fire ecology, fire history, fuels assessment, fire, climate, society, southwest, Arizona, AZ, New Mexico, NM, Jemez Mountains, Santa Catalina Mountains, Rincon Mountains, Chiricahua Mountains, Huachuca Mountains, urban, wildland, wildfire, urban-wildland interface, forestry, recreation, tourism., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Southwest, Ecology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, State, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Forestry, ecological exposure, logging, environmental monitoring, human impacts, biodiversity, New Mexico (NM), fire models, recreatioonal stress, grasslands, ecological impacts, climate impacts, Arizona (AZ), climate models, fire regimes, forests, environmental stressors, GIS, fire regimes in forests and grasslands, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
http://walter.arizona.edu Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.