Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Longitudinal Indicators of Policy Impact on Pollution, Exposure and Health Risk
EPA Grant Number: R833991Title: Longitudinal Indicators of Policy Impact on Pollution, Exposure and Health Risk
Investigators: Burke, Thomas A. , Fox, Mary A.
Institution: The Johns Hopkins University
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2011 (Extended to October 31, 2012)
Project Amount: $499,961
RFA: Development of Environmental Health Outcome Indicators (2007) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category:
Objective:
The objectives of this research are:
- To develop and present state level environmental health outcome indicators that measure changes over time; and
- To apply environmental health outcome indicators to evaluate the impact of environmental policies on population exposures and health risks.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Background
In 1975 the National Cancer Institute released the Atlas of Cancer Mortality 1950-1969 graphically depicting New Jersey as the nation’s leader in cancer mortality (Mason et al.1975). Buoyed by national media coverage and high public concern, the state initiated an intensive response, including multimedia investigations of carcinogenic and toxic chemicals, and the development of policies and legislation to track and reduce population exposures. The environmental monitoring data collected by New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection through the late 1970s and early 1980s provided some of the nation’s first multimedia data on toxic pollutants. These historical data provide a unique opportunity to document environmental progress over the past three decades. We developed policy evaluation case studies of water and biota from existing data from New Jersey monitoring programs and applied risk assessment methods to explore impacts on population exposure and health.
We focused our data search on environmental monitoring reports available electronically. Criteria for evaluating whether the environmental monitoring data were acceptable for project purposes included: relevance to human health; measurement quality and quantity; availability and comparability of data over time. Data meeting these criteria were found for Arochlor 1254 (a common polychlorinated biphenyl [PCB] mixture) and total PCBs in striped bass or hybrid striper, trichloroethylene (TCE) in public water supplies (PWS), and total mercury (Hg) in largemouth bass.
Development of Policy Case Studies
A chronology of New Jersey and federal policies addressing toxic pollutants was developed. We developed our case studies in relation to the most relevant policy or policies given the timeframe and media of the available monitoring data. All case study pollutants are found in multiple media, for example, each pollutant has a maximum contaminant level (MCL) in drinking water and each is listed as a Hazardous Air Pollutant. In the case of PCB, the most significant policy was the federal “ban”, i.e., prohibitions on manufacturing, processing, distribution and use. Both federal and state maximum contaminant levels were established for TCE in 1989; the federal MCL of 5 ppb and state MCL of 1 ppb.
Because of Hg’s multiple sources -- including local deposition of internationally-transported emissions -- and complex environmental cycling, a variety of policies have been implemented over time. National policies to regulate Hg released by coal-burning power plants, the principal source of anthropogenic Hg emissions, moved slowly over the period reviewed. Numerous state policies since 1990 have aimed at reduction of local Hg emissions, including from municipal solid waste incinerators, iron and steel plants and coal-fired boilers.
Data and Results
Sampling data analyzed for each case study are presented in Table 1. Among the case studies the clearest declines were observed in the datasets for Arochlor (1975-1980) and total PCB (1988-1989 and 2006) where maximum values have shifted downward by 2 orders of magnitude.
Average data from samples of 3 to 9 fish were consistently available for total Hg in the source reports. Measures of central tendency (average in 1977-78 and median in later datasets) increased across the three time periods available from 0.2 ppm in 1977-78 to 0.3 ppm in 1992-93 to 0.4 ppm in 2006. However, declines in the maximums of average Hg values from the intermediate to recent time period were seen. The highest value was 3 ppm in the early 1990s data, exceeding the FDA action level of 1 ppm, declining to 0.9 ppm in the 2006 data.
Maximum TCE concentrations were variable over time and in the 1998-2005 dataset were above the federal MCL and NJ MCLs. Maximum concentrations of TCE were higher in PWS sourced from groundwater than those sourced from surface water. Additional data on percent of samples with detectable TCE supplements the concentration data. The percent of samples with detectable TCE showed a more consistent decline with time from a high of 12% in the earliest dataset (1978-1981) to between 3 – 5 % in data from 1998-2005.
Table 1 Summary of sampling data
Analyte |
Media |
Time Periods |
Range of Values (# of Data Points) [% Samples with Detects]a |
Arochlor or Total PCB µg/g wet weight |
Bass species |
1975-80 1988-89 2006 |
0.12 – 31.40 (54) 0.48 – 3.33 (55) 0.08 – 0.27 (5) |
Avg Total Hg µg/g wet weight
|
Bass species |
1977-78 1992-93 2006 |
0.20 (1) 0.08 – 3.07 (34) 0.17-0.87 (21) |
TCE (ppb) |
Public Water Supplies |
1978-1981 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1998-2005 SW 1998-2005 GW |
0.3 – 24 (≥250) [12]b ND – 190 (1570) [6] ND – 81 (1502) [7] ND – 130 (1435) [8] ND – 26 (1336) [8] ND – 19 (1291) [6] ND – 2 (1387) [4] 0.1 – 6 (1,788) [5] 0.1 – 72 (18,567) [3] |
The impacts of the PCB ban were clear, although they became apparent only over time. The risk assessment showed increased risk for all fish consumption scenarios modeled with pre-ban concentrations. Risk results from the most recent sampling in 2006 found slightly elevated risk only for the worst-case modeled, a child consumer at high consumption. The environmental persistence of PCBs highlights the importance of state and local fish consumption advisories to reduce the likelihood of risks to the high consumer.
The positive impact of the late 1980s TCE MCLs can be seen in the decline in the proportion of PWS’s with detectable TCE over the 1977 to 2005 time period examined. TCE contamination remains a concern particularly for PWS sourced from groundwater. However, situations with elevated risk (calculated on the basis of maximum concentrations) have been rare as the majority of TCE samples were below limits of detection.
There have been slight increases in median values of fish tissue Hg data in sampling from NJ, although some decline was seen in the highest values between 1992-1993 and 2006. It is plausible that the observed maximum Hg declines reflect reported reductions in local Hg water concentrations during the period associated with both the NE regional actions as well as state policies undertaken by NJ (Graham et al. 2007; NJDEP 2013). Contributing to explaining the lack of substantial change in fish tissue Hg concentrations, modeling suggests only 12.5% of Hg deposition to NJ waters comes from NJ sources (NJDEP 2013), with the largest share of Hg deposition coming from US sources outside NJ or from other countries. Recent establishment by the EPA of new Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (EPA 2011c) to limit emissions from new power plants, and agreement by over 140 countries on the global Minamata Mercury Convention (United Nations Environment Programme 2013) reflect recognition of the need for enhanced national action and international cooperation to control Hg emissions and reduce Hg in seafood. Most seafood consumed in the US comes from commercial sources and global markets (Selin et al. 2010). However, concerns remain for Hg exposures among women of child-bearing age who consume locally-caught NJ fish. As with PCBs, state and local fish consumption advisories have a critical role to play in reducing these exposures in the interim while longer-term policies to control emissions are taking effect.
Conclusions:
The 1979 national PCB manufacturing ban is a success story in reducing exposure, but the persistence of these compounds in local fish requires continued state and local consumption advisories. The positive impact of drinking water standards for TCE was reflected in declining detection in public water supplies from the late 1970s to 2005, although maximum concentrations in a small percentage of supplies remain above standards. Despite a range of policy efforts to reduce Hg in the environment, there has been little change in fish tissue Hg concentrations over a 30 year period.
Although concern over cancer rates was the primary driver of the early monitoring programs and policy changes in New Jersey, chemical exposures contribute to more than one health effect and the chemicals we profiled have been associated with: immune effects and fetal cardiac malformations (TCE); cardiovascular risks and neurodevelopmental effects (MeHg); and immune effects, reduced birth weight, neurobehavioral deficits (PCB). Reducing exposure to case-study compounds has likely reduced risk for a broad range of health concerns beyond cancer.
The policy analysis demonstrated that New Jersey’s monitoring, investigations, and policies in the 70s and 80s had a direct influence on several major national policies aimed at reducing exposure and risks from toxic and carcinogenic pollutants. Examples include the 1978 act requiring the Report on Carcinogens, the 1980 Superfund Legislation, and the 1986 Emergency Planning and Right to Know Act.
In recent years there has been growing concern about the negative impacts of environmental regulations on jobs and the economy. It is important to develop better measures of the effectiveness of environmental policies. Our analyses show reductions in environmental pollutants, exposures, and population risks that support the positive impacts of state and national policies. Our case studies show successes, works in progress and need for multiple policies in combination when conditions warrant, e.g., national emission standards and state and local fish consumption advisories. A longitudinal approach tracking pollutants and exposures using risk assessment provides a valuable tool for evaluating and improving the effectiveness of environmental policies.
References:
Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia. 1994. Preliminary Assessment of Total Mercury Concentrations in Fishes from Rivers, Lakes and Reservoirs of New Jersey, Report 93-15F, Division of Environmental Research, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, February 1994.
Ashley J, Horwitz RJ. 2000. Assessment of PCBs, Selected Organic Pesticides and Mercury in Fishes from New Jersey: 1998-1999 Monitoring Program, Report 00-20D, Patrick Center for Environmental Research, Academy of Natural Sciences, December 2000.
Belton TJ, Ruppel BE, Lockwood K. 1982. PCB's (Arochlor 1254) in fish tissues throughout the State of New Jersey: a comprehensive survey. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, November 1982.
Bono P, Krietzman S, McGeorge L. 1992. Assessing New Jersey's drinking water quality: a status report on the implementation of the 1984 amendments to the New Jersey Safe Drinking Water Act (A-280). Bureau of Safe Drinking Water and Division of Science and Research, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and Energy, August 1992.
EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). 1979. Polychlorinated biphenyls manufacturing, processing, distribution in commerce and use prohibitions. Fed Reg 44: 31514-31558.
EPA. 2004. Proposed National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants; and, in the Alternative, Proposed Standards of Performance for New and Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Steam Generating Units. Fed Reg 69: 4652-4752.
EPA. 2010. The Analysis of Regulated Contaminant Occurrence Data from Public Water Systems in Support of the Second Six-Year Review of National Primary Drinking Water Regulations. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Water. EPA-815-B-09-006. Revised September 2010. Available: http://water.epa.gov/lawsregs/rulesregs/regulatingcontaminants/sixyearreview/second_review/upload/6Yr2OccurrenceReport_Revised_September2010.pdf [accessed 17 November 2012].
EPA. 2011. Mercury regulations and standards. Available:
https://www.epa.gov/hg/regs.htm [accessed 8 October 2013].
EPA. 2012. Basic Information about Trichloroethylene in drinking water. Available:
http://water.epa.gov/drink/contaminants/basicinformation/trichloroethylene.cfm [accessed 26 January 2013].
Graham J, Miller P, Savelli E, Woo J-H. 2007. Modeling mercury in the Northeast United States. NESCAUM, October 5, 2007. Available:
http://www.nescaum.org/topics/mercury [accessed 8 October 2013].
Hauge P. 1993. Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs), Chlordane, and DDTs in Selected Fish and Shellfish from New Jersey Waters, 1988-1991: Results from New Jersey's Toxics in Biota Monitoring Program. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and Energy, July 1993.
Horwitz RJ, Overbeck PF, Ashley J, Velinsky D, Zaoudeh L. 2008. Routine Monitoring of Toxics in New Jersey Fish: Third Year (2006) of Routine Monitoring Program. Patrick Center for Environmental Research, Academy of Natural Sciences, Submitted to: New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, December 2008.
Lipsky D, Reed RJ, Harkov R. 1980. Mercury levels in Berry’s Creek. State of New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.
Mason, TJ, McKay,W, Hoover R, Blot, WT, Fraumeni JF Atlas of Cancer Mortality for U.S. Counties 1950-1969. DHEW Pub. No. (NIH) 75-780, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1975
New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection 2013. Environmental Trends Report: Mercury Emissions. Office of Science, NJ Department of Environmental Protection. Available: http://www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/trends/pdfs/mercury.pdf [accessed 9 January 2014].
Richter PL. 1987. Trichloroethylene health-based maximum contaminant level support document. Office of Science and Research, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Available: http://www.nj.gov/dep/watersupply/pdf/append-b-section-r.pdf [accessed 30 August 2013].
Selin NE, Sunderland EM, Knightes CD, Mason RP. 2010. Sources of mercury exposure for US seafood consumers: implications for policy. Environ Health Perspect 118:137-143.
United Nations Environment Programme. 2013. Minamata Convention Agreed by Nations.
Available: http://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2702&ArticleID=9373 [accessed 8 October 2013].
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 3 publications | 1 publications in selected types | All 1 journal articles |
---|
Type | Citation | ||
---|---|---|---|
|
Fox MA, Sheehan MC, Burke TA. A risk assessment approach for policy evaluation:New Jersey case studies. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2015;21(8):2258-2272. |
R833991 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
human health, mid-Atlantic, pollution prevention, public policy, risk assessmentRelevant Websites:
http://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/risk-sciences-and-public-policy-institute/index.htm Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2012 Progress Report
- 2011 Progress Report
- 2010 Progress Report
- 2009 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
1 journal articles for this project